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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

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30 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Trees in my garden are still fully clothed and it's the 8th of November

I read somewhere that it would take until late December for the last leaf to drop if wind wasn't a factor. 

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All of my mature trees and shrubs are fully laden with leaves.  They are slowly changing colour. The only naked sapling is the 3 -4 year old rowan.  Earlier on the day, there was a light frost on the lawns, roofs and tops of vehicles. Sadly, it did not last long.  I like a good severe frost which lasts until the early afternoon and then goes frosty again by 5pm. There has been some rain in South Ockendon approximately 2pm.  The temperature at 16:03 is 8.8°C along with 73% humidity. There are stratocumulus and cumulonimbus clouds covering the sky.  The barometric pressure is at 1005.7 and is rising steadily.

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Arome pretty poor with its rainfall this evening quite a lot wetter further west than it shows Rain has kept intensity more than it shows too. 

Arome 7pm forecast.. 

1610505283_UK_RAIN1_7(1).thumb.jpg.9938d85c40a9afb4b0bbf42f67d8a70f.jpg

7pm this evening.. 

Screenshot_20191108_194346_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.fad1d6ca5ffa46b48937043d79ef3a02.jpg

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Not really sure where the met office are getting those figures .

Last night some models picked up on it actually clearing our area.. I have over £2000 worth of fireworks tonight that we are doing (we do dispalys each year) 

Some models have actually baked right of a real soaking.. 

Arpege

39330203_arpege1.thumb.jpg.3e4dec4cfe6789199ce0a9faa935f5d4.jpg474223502_arpege2.thumb.jpg.0efd0d90fc12338da263839a2723234f.jpg1606484626_arpege3.thumb.jpg.87f10f075b6eca842615f4b006c345b7.jpgaccprecip_20191108_18_027.thumb.jpg.f974db6e6f53de7df85d0b99ee4c55d0.jpg

 

Arome was pretty good as well 

2140277519_arome1.thumb.jpg.1e5587b62770ed1468b6965c880b7567.jpg 395427934_arome2.thumb.jpg.a23915be0111fa6ac2d9500699b01376.jpg1821356373_arome3.thumb.jpg.ec29806325b4db67d7f5bc6dd52ca1c3.jpg accprecip_20191108_12_033.thumb.jpg.35e363ecd28012e3851db0f4774ce937.jpg (higher totals much further west)

 

Even the mightly ICON is not showing near what the met warning is saying... 

 

EURO4 on the high end and would suggest warning from MET

 

Very different model ideas so close... I personally hope that the arome or arpege is right

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34 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Not really sure where the met office are getting those figures .

Last night some models picked up on it actually clearing our area.. I have over £2000 worth of fireworks tonight that we are doing (we do dispalys each year) 

Some models have actually baked right of a real soaking.. 

Arpege

39330203_arpege1.thumb.jpg.3e4dec4cfe6789199ce0a9faa935f5d4.jpg474223502_arpege2.thumb.jpg.0efd0d90fc12338da263839a2723234f.jpg1606484626_arpege3.thumb.jpg.87f10f075b6eca842615f4b006c345b7.jpgaccprecip_20191108_18_027.thumb.jpg.f974db6e6f53de7df85d0b99ee4c55d0.jpg

 

Arome was pretty good as well 

2140277519_arome1.thumb.jpg.1e5587b62770ed1468b6965c880b7567.jpg 395427934_arome2.thumb.jpg.a23915be0111fa6ac2d9500699b01376.jpg1821356373_arome3.thumb.jpg.ec29806325b4db67d7f5bc6dd52ca1c3.jpg accprecip_20191108_12_033.thumb.jpg.35e363ecd28012e3851db0f4774ce937.jpg (higher totals much further west)

 

Even the mightly ICON is not showing near what the met warning is saying... 

 

EURO4 on the high end and would suggest warning from MET

 

Very different model ideas so close... I personally hope that the arome or arpege is right

Seems like your hopecasting. Btw you are using the midday arome run from yesterday.. this mornings run is more in line with the warning. ?Arpege didn't do very well with yesterday's showery rain down the Eastern side yesterday evening tbh it barely showed it at all so I'm not putting much confidence in it today. Icon has the amounts the met are saying just in a slightly different location the GFS too as does the Arome aswell..And I'm sure their own model is showing something similar hence why they have that warning. It's the longevity more than the intensity that will give some areas the amounts of 10-20mm mabye 30mm in a few locations in the general area depicted by the yellow warning. Although exactly where the wettest area will be is a little uncertain. 

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17 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Seems like your hopecasting. Btw you are using the midday arome run from yesterday.. this mornings run is more in line with the warning. ?Arpege didn't do very well with yesterday's showery rain down the Eastern side yesterday evening tbh it barely showed it at all so I'm not putting much confidence in it today. Icon has the amounts the met are saying just in a slightly different location the GFS too as does the Arome aswell..And I'm sure their own model is showing something similar hence why they have that warning. It's the longevity more than the intensity that will give some areas the amounts of 10-20mm mabye 30mm in a few locations in the general area depicted by the yellow warning. Although exactly where the wettest area will be is a little uncertain. 

I don't really care about rain.. We are setup with wireless firing and waterproof covers.. Just seems odd.. Arome is updating now see what it says.. The WRF also falls in line with arpege 

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

I don't really care about rain.. We are setup with wireless firing and waterproof covers.. Just seems odd.. Arome is updating now see what it says.. The WRF also falls in line with arpege 

Your good to go then ??Arome shifts the wettest conditions further north. 

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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

 

 

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Out to 7pm not much change 

accprecip_20191109_00_019.thumb.jpg.9786bf8b618bffa898bdd9ce7ff652f5.jpg

Because the models are quite split in terms of where the most will end up falling its not worth taking any of them too literally guess we'll see by the radar as to what happens although northeast northern Ireland copping alot and there is some form of agreement on that one. ?️

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1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

 

Because the models are quite split in terms of where the most will end up falling its not worth taking any of them too literally guess we'll see by the radar as to what happens although northeast northern Ireland copping alot and there is some form of agreement on that one. ?️

following today quite closely all week and the difference between the models is nuts... These types of setups are so hard to forecast... Many times in winter we watch as front try push up against a block forecast loads of snow only for it to halt somewhere way out west and they cop it all LOL 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

following today quite closely all week and the difference between the models is nuts... These types of setups are so hard to forecast... Many times in winter we watch as front try push up against a block forecast loads of snow only for it to halt somewhere way out west and they cop it all LOL 

 

 

 

 

I know that can be frustrating shame this isn't a couple months on then we would be in snow business ❄️?

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It is a beautiful foggy morning in South Ockendon, it is much denser than I have seen it for years.  It is less foggier in the back of my flat, than the front.

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It’s a beautiful but chilly morning here in Rye Harbour. I like days like this. Today is our local bonfire and it’s one of the biggest on the south coast but it looks like it will be washed out again. Last year was awful and because of how badly it rained it frightened my autistic son who is now petrified of the rain which makes wet days very hard as you can imagine. I’m so bored of this weather 

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