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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Posted Images

11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I know you shouldn't take the BBC weather graphics as gospel but tomorrow and Thursday showed little in the way of convective activity to the east of London and towards East Anglia...I'll be amazed but not surprised if out towards my location we experience little in the way of lightning and thunder but as we know with such conditions difficult to pinpoint. 

GFS this evening is also disappointing. Big downgrade for Thursday. Possibly something tomorrow evening. but if you're north of the Thames it doesn't look great.

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Tomorrow looks like another day of pulse type storms breaking out during the mid to late afternoon. Just a hunch that the morning may very well be sunnier than the last couple of days for most, so potentially 33/34C could be more widespread across the region away from the coasts. Going for 35C to be reached or exceeded towards NW London. It does look like there will be more action tomorrow night with widespread thunderstorms moving northwards out of France, the trouble is that the models have definitely slowed the progression of these down and potentially the northern limit of their journey.

GFS 18z for tomorrow - Add a degree or so onto these but in this instance i prefer the slightly smoothed approach.

24-582UK.GIF?11-18

Thursday looks a real mess to forecast, slight differences in the orientation of the low could have drastically different outcomes in surface conditions. The airmass overhead will still be warm enough for 30-32C to be reached in sunnier spells. However the extent of the rain and whether the wind backs north easterly or not will have big impacts on those temperatures.

The thunderstorm risk continues into Friday, the weekend however looks drier and still very warm (All days have the risk of low cloud in north and eastern parts of the region, but again the surface flow may or may not favour the presence of this cloud.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Based on the year so far, this heat will probably end with some light rain for the region. The lack of widespread storms in the SE has been just as astonishing as the heat IMO. 🙄

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I'm going completely bonkers now lol, no storms anywhere near, yet when I sit outside to cool down a bit, I keep hearing rumbles. It's got to be in my head. 

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48 minutes ago, andymcpool said:

temps are showing 30c indoors and 22 c outdoors with humidty 31.3% and pressure 1016.28 here in greenhithe

 

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm going completely bonkers now lol, no storms anywhere near, yet when I sit outside to cool down a bit, I keep hearing rumbles. It's got to be in my head. 

It’s rather like Jean de Florette in the eponymous film. I’m with you. 

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Day 4 of 30C plus heat. Monday 10 August, Max 34.6 @ 15:14. 
Day 5: 11 August, started the day with 91% humidity at 07:30 followed by max temp of 33C @ 15:14, and again at 18:30. Currently 27C, Wind 1mph, humidity 62% Somehow it feels worse than last night but maybe that’s the sleep deprivation altering reality...😏

Lightening reflecting clouds due west an hour ago, guessing a long way away. West in straight line from village not a lot until north Milton Keynes 30-32 miles away. Timing fits with radar activity around MK. 

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16 minutes ago, Downpour said:

It’s rather like Jean de Florette in the eponymous film. I’m with you. 

May be I was just being psychic lol, it's flashing in the channel now. 

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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm going completely bonkers now lol, no storms anywhere near, yet when I sit outside to cool down a bit, I keep hearing rumbles. It's got to be in my head. 

Same here! I think it's wishful thinking on my part!

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1 minute ago, lottiekent said:

Definite rumble and lightning from the small cell moving towards Kent

That didn't start flashing till about ten mins after my post. Or at least I didn't notice it. 

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3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep we had that here, I think it was the french storms out flow, which is what causes the gust front, in front of storms. They were very strong. 

Ah thanks, I did wonder that! 🙂

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It feels and the sky look more stormy this morning so hopefully a better chance for us. Sitting in the garden last night between 22:30 and 23:30 there was plenty of distant lightning to the s/west of my location but too far to here thunder, anyway another monstrous night for sleep with temps no lower than 21.1c. 

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