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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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14 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Mad for October isn't it -surely it's just because it coincides with rush hour?  My escape out of London home later might be interesting - here's hoping! 🌩️ 

I don’t know, mate! There seems to be quite the organisation of ingredients over France; it will be 18c at 20:00 tonight in Bexhill! Fingers crossed! 🙂 

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57 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

this weather is garbage

If only we could bin it like garbage!...even though the rainfall radar shows no rain here in these parts currently outside the skies are just leaden, some brief sunshine yesterday afternoon but the last 72+ hours have been shocking. I think in my area it has has been one of the 'drier' areas in the region this month but have still totalled near 40mm.

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The Netweather Extra models suggesting around an inch of rain for many across the Region (more for some) as the intense area of thundery rain moves north. Meanwhile Arome saying the worst will miss us and go up the North Sea. We'll find out soon!

Netwx UKV 20.00 v Arome 23.00: 1228195835_UKV20_00.thumb.png.fec8adb689304c630fb085405bfadf7c.png233634670_Arome14Oct23_00.thumb.png.5b94b637e049f714b5154ac58021c8d5.png

Netwx SR model cum rainfall to 06.00 Tues: 340097856_NetwxSRrainfalltotals.thumb.png.15bf6804777d1c46ca8e6c2b849992d0.png

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Looking promising.

Screenshot 2019-10-14 at 15.13.22.png

DISCUSSION

Along a line from Jersey to Bordeaux, a line of storms has formed, featuring embedded waves/supercell structures has formed in an environment characterized my modest instability (400 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but strong wind shear. With an 850 hPa wind speed of around 25 m/s near the line, and the wavy appearance on radar, a distinct threat of severe wind gusts exists. Locally, some large (2-4 cm) hail may occur and, in addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level shear (10-18 m/s 0-1 km).

The storm system is projected to travel north-northeastward. Model guidance suggests it should weaken during the evening as low-level cold air advection from the west intensifies and upper-level support is weak.

Edited by snowfall09

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First cell is dipping it’s toes into the channel... Let’s just see how this goes.

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Getting lively down south.. Certainly arome looks wrong now with a wider area getting some kind of heavy rain 

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It's definitely expanding! Most active and electrified part still likely to E. Sussex & Kent though IMO. 

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19 minutes ago, weathertoski said:

It's definitely expanding! Most active and electrified part still likely to E. Sussex & Kent though IMO. 

Yes electrical stuff further east 

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Yep got heavy rain in Pagham currently but heaviest looks like just further east 

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It's stopped raining here 

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1 minute ago, NUT said:

Yep got heavy rain in Pagham currently but heaviest looks like just further east 

Where is Pagham NUT?:cc_confused:

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13 minutes ago, snowray said:

Where is Pagham NUT?:cc_confused:

Sorry bognor regis area bognor basically on holiday here at the moment 

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1 minute ago, NUT said:

Sorry bognor regis area bognor basically on holiday here at the moment 

🤗 Hope your having a nice holiday down there...

 

Heavy rain just started here after a bit of drizzle.

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the lightning seems to be dying on both the radar and lightning maps, hope we don't only get just rain like we have gotten for the past few days 😓

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Heavy rain? 

Not really! It's heavy spits 

According to radar it should be teeming it down, its not. 

It is very dark out though 

 

Am in worthing 

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am watching some web cams in eastbourne/brighton and I can't say i see anything noteworthy atm. No flashes, rain pretty much coastal fare.  

Normal storm fare too everything dying off.

Edited by Dami

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Most definitely like a summer storm dying a death and taking too much of a rightward turn. Although a deluge will affect much of SE England, I wouldn’t like to be in Hastings right now!

85C56F5E-D506-47CE-9BEE-59B14B15F003.thumb.jpeg.b6409cc4625d07b3a93103be69d541d3.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Most definitely like a summer storm dying a death and taking too much of a rightward turn. Although a deluge will affect much of SE England, I wouldn’t like to be in Hastings right now!

85C56F5E-D506-47CE-9BEE-59B14B15F003.thumb.jpeg.b6409cc4625d07b3a93103be69d541d3.jpeg

I'd love to be in Hastings right now! 😅

Steady rain here, everything still moving NNE.

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3 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'd love to be in Hastings right now! 😅

Steady rain here, everything still moving NNE.

Tell me about,🙄🙄walked up the west hill Hastings back to my car (nearest free parking in town!), after work and got drenched a decent waterproof on the top half kept me dry but as for the bottom half and my non waterproof shoes, squish squish squish. A lot of standing water on the drive  back home, I find it bizarre how folk seem to take no notice of conditions and speed along with little concern about the reduced visibility or increased spray! 😠

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There was a short rumble of thunder but no lightning and moderate shower of rain at 6pm.  It is 6:29pm and I don't think there will be any-more thunder.

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4 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Apologies to you and anyone else who followed my old incorrect link. Here's the correct link to use to run your own reports for a station near you. Note you'll need to put in the station code but they do provide a link to the full list. I think Shoeburyness might be your nearest Katrine?

http://www.ogimet.com/gsynres.phtml.en

Thank you for the link BW and your help.  The rain has started again and it is much heavier than before.  The road outside looks so shiny with the rain falling on it's surface.

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