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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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August observations now published by the Met Office and the rainfall deficit in our Region continues with many areas below 75% of the long-term (1981-2010) average and parts of Norfolk and Essex below 50%.

Actual Rainfall 1678283650_August2019RainfallActual.thumb.gif.15c24f7debccde3ca7be628f83bf4c74.gif Anomaly  2045579445_August2019RainfallAnomaly.thumb.gif.2e9ee61f82cc553b8fd84805e02dab9e.gif

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps

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Thanks @Blessed Weather as thought this area in Essex particularly dry, I worked out we had probably less than 33% rainfall and again not surprising the warmest conditions generally to the east of London (an anomaly conducive to westerly Tm conditions).

Amazing when you look at the maps on the opening page supplied by Malcolm how consistent the range of the driest and warmest conditions have been since 2016 with slight variations from year to year...

 

2019_8_MaxTemp_Actual.gif

Edited by Froze were the Days

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8 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

August observations now published by the Met Office and the rainfall deficit in our Region continues with many areas below 75% of the long-term (1981-2010) average and parts of Norfolk and Essex below 50%.

Actual Rainfall 1678283650_August2019RainfallActual.thumb.gif.15c24f7debccde3ca7be628f83bf4c74.gif Anomaly  2045579445_August2019RainfallAnomaly.thumb.gif.2e9ee61f82cc553b8fd84805e02dab9e.gif

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps

This explains why the South Norfolk countryside is so brown at present.

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Morning all,

Up early to have Breakfast with my Wife, before she set off for her early Morning shift.

My Arthritic right hand still giving me "gip", so no detailed analysis on MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, from me today.

I'll just post up the BBC video link to the Forecast, with  Darren Bett:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49599870

A reasonable Weekend coming up for our Region then under a Ridge of High Pressure, if on the cool side.

Any effects from the remnants of both, Hurricane DORIAN and Tropical Storm GABRIELLE, look to be confined to the Northern half of the U.K.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

 

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Where is the rain forecast for today? Not even a dribble.

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Looking very stormy to my East. Almost shelf cloud looking!

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Up early with my Wife before she set off for a 12 work hour shift.

Now relaxing with a cuppa and a recording of MeteoGroup's, extended Forecast with Darren Bett. See BBC link, below:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49615911

Still looks like a pleasant Day tomorrow, if on the cool side, for my 64th Birthday. I've been blessed with some lovely Weather at this time of Year, for some previous Birthdays.

Even though I'm still getting quite a bit of pain from an Arthritic right hand, it won't stop me picking up my knife and enjoying my Birthday meal, at a local Italian Restaurant tomorrow!! :nonono:

I hope you all enjoy, your Weekends.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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On 06/09/2019 at 07:05, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Up early to have Breakfast with my Wife, before she set off for her early Morning shift.

My Arthritic right hand still giving me "gip", so no detailed analysis on MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, from me today.

I'll just post up the BBC video link to the Forecast, with  Darren Bett:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49599870

A reasonable Weekend coming up for our Region then under a Ridge of High Pressure, if on the cool side.

Any effects from the remnants of both, Hurricane DORIAN and Tropical Storm GABRIELLE, look to be confined to the Northern half of the U.K.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

 

Jeez, I know that one. I've got Rheumatoid Arthritis (feet and hands) and Fibromyalgia. Take it easy sir. It's a bad time of the year for it. 

Mike

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Have recently spoken to local Meteorologist, Ian Currie.

Mr.Currie suggested that we can still expect some very warm Weather, during the rest of September, after this coolish Weekend.

He expects a very much, High Pressure dominated first half of Autumn with any cooler temps. courtesy of any clear skies at night.

He has no thoughts on the coming Winter yet though, citing the melting of Arctic Sea ice an additional element to factor into any Long Range Forecasts and how this will manifest itself in Winter Weather conditions, for N.W.Europe.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: 

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2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Have recently spoken to local Meteorologist, Ian Currie.

Mr.Currie suggested that we can still expect some very warm Weather, during the rest of September, after this coolish Weekend.

He expects a very much, High Pressure dominated first half of Autumn with any cooler temps. courtesy of any clear skies at night.

He has no thoughts on the coming Winter yet though, citing the melting of Arctic Sea ice an additional element to factor into any Long Range Forecasts and how this will manifest itself in Winter Weather conditions, for N.W.Europe.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: 

What are his thoughts regarding rainfall?  If we have a dry autumn and winter, there will be shortages here next summer, and a dry spring will almost certainly see the Cam through Cambridge run dry and standpipes in the streets.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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Morning all,

Again, no commentary about MeteoGroup's extended Forecast. Just the link to the Broadcast from, Darren Bett:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49620398

Looks like I've been blessed with a lovely Day for my 64th Birthday, today, if on the cool side.

Will be getting ready to set off for a Family celebration later on this Morning, at the Italian Restaurant managed by the Italian Husband of my Niece, in Bromley (Kent/London border).

Hopefully, I'll be able to post up some pics of the event, a little later.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Beautiful day, sun shining, temperature just right - no humidity and little wind, perfect to be outdoors. If only it could be like this until late October with just the odd rainfall which we do need.

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On 07/09/2019 at 14:12, TomSE12 said:

Have recently spoken to local Meteorologist, Ian Currie.

Mr.Currie suggested that we can still expect some very warm Weather, during the rest of September, after this coolish Weekend.

He expects a very much, High Pressure dominated first half of Autumn with any cooler temps. courtesy of any clear skies at night.

He has no thoughts on the coming Winter yet though, citing the melting of Arctic Sea ice an additional element to factor into any Long Range Forecasts and how this will manifest itself in Winter Weather conditions, for N.W.Europe.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: 

Hi Tom, The MSM are going all guns blazing with the 2019/20 winter. David King the climatologist published his winter 2019/20 a few months ago and must be smiling at the latest winter updates!!

It will be interesting what Ian Currie's take is on this as well.

Here's my response to Sky News regarding their winter story!

 

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Happy birthday Tom here is to many more..:drinks:

A chilly night last night a low of 7.6C this is cold for this neck of the woods in early September for most of summer nights weren’t any lower than 16-18C so a big shock. Much better for sleeping in. 🙂 

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Today’s gloom a contrast to yesterday’s glorious sun and amazing visibility ..... London from Epsom Downs 

18163680-F1D5-4864-94DD-6B9DC3BAB2BD.jpeg

A5AA5254-CDD3-4711-980A-BEF4EFA5CE91.jpeg

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Radar looks weird when you play it back and forth, South and West of London, rain bands are going in all sorts of directions, some S to N and some W to E.

Edited by all weather

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The sky was filled with the boring light grey stratus clouds.The rain started earlier in the morning, than was forecasted by the Met Office, Weather Outlook and Weather Wundgeround.  It started as a fine drizzle but got heavier by late morning.  The lasted not long after 1:30pm.  The temperature is 15.3C and for the first time in ages, I feel cold.  At least I don't have to water the garden tonight as the lawn looks as thought it is saturated with rain.

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On 06/09/2019 at 07:05, TomSE12 said:

Morning all,

Up early to have Breakfast with my Wife, before she set off for her early Morning shift.

My Arthritic right hand still giving me "gip", so no detailed analysis on MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, from me today.

I'll just post up the BBC video link to the Forecast, with  Darren Bett:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49599870

A reasonable Weekend coming up for our Region then under a Ridge of High Pressure, if on the cool side.

Any effects from the remnants of both, Hurricane DORIAN and Tropical Storm GABRIELLE, look to be confined to the Northern half of the U.K.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

 

Happy Belated birthday Tom, I hope you had a lovely day and that your right hand is not so painful today.  The humidity today has gone up to 73% and the weather is beginning to feel more seasonable.  The barometer pressure has been falling with today's reading is at 1011.0.

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Well they are at it again, the newspapers. That’s all I have seen all day from the express and even the sun. Coldest winter, -14 I struggle to believe this even though a few scientists have come up with the same answer. I know they know an incredible amount more than me but I don’t think it will work out that way. 

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1 hour ago, DonnaThw said:

Well they are at it again, the newspapers. That’s all I have seen all day from the express and even the sun. Coldest winter, -14 I struggle to believe this even though a few scientists have come up with the same answer. I know they know an incredible amount more than me but I don’t think it will work out that way. 

I think, they probably post the articles on the first Monday after the schools go back. Well that's what it feels like anyway. 😉

 

 

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Evening all,

Thanks to all Members above, for their Birthday Wishes. I had a fantastic Afternoon yesterday in Bromley, at the Italian Restaurant owned by the Italian Husband, of my Niece.

Myself and 9 other Family Members enjoyed a selection of delicious dishes to celebrate, my 64th Birthday. I also wanted to make the meal a tribute to my wonderful, deceased Italian Mother, who passed away a little over 15 Years ago.

image.thumb.png.acbb1ccd63030a84107842872ddb2f60.png

Starters included: Arancinette (Rice Balls stuffed with Bolognese sauce and Parmesan),Bruschetta Napoletana (Toasted Ciabatta with Tomato topping), Calamari Fritti (Fried Squid in Breadcrumbs) and Melanzane (Aubergine with Mozzarella and Parmesan).

Main Courses included Branzino (Fillet of Sea Bass), which Yours Truly devoured. Lasagne, Penne Arrabiata (Pasta with a Spicy sauce),  and a Prawn Linguine (Prawns in a creamy sauce with Pasta).

Desserts included: Caprese Cake (Neapolitan Almond and Chocolate Cake with Vanilla Ice Cream)  Cassatina Siciliana (Marzipan Sicilian cake with Almond Ricotta Cream) Cheesecake and Tiramisu (Venetian Coffee Dessert with Mascarpone Cheese).

All of us had a lovely time and certainly the best ever Birthday meal, I 've experienced. Here are some images of the Restaurant and those lovely dishes.

  image.png.c89c4be8318096ed9e06101831428efb.png image.thumb.png.9792c52e37c4e8ae1a9f0f66f7436868.pngimage.thumb.png.ecd4b6565b900024ce4ff2359f8ecfb2.png 

 

My Niece's Husband is a very charismatic guy. Myself and my Wife Colette, had to go shopping in Bromley today and popped into the Restaurant again and we had a portion of Calamari, plus baguettes stuffed with Chicken and Pancetta with a side order of chunky chips and two Cappuccinos, another delicious experience. Back on the Diet tomorrow!!

I also had the pleasure of presenting 2 of Ian Currie's Weather Books to one of my Great Nieces, who had attained brilliant results, in her "A" Level Mock Exams. Ian Currie kindly signed the books for her. A found out a few weeks ago, that my Great Niece, is becoming a bit of a Geography/Weather Geek (Apologies to weathergeek!!) Is there room for 2, in the same Family.

Myself and Colette also had the pleasure of giving my other Great Niece, a L'orso Polare (Polar Bear).

He did belong to my Wife but we don't have room anymore for him. His original name was Uncle Svarlbad but that's a bit of a mouthful, so we've renamed him Paolo, as my Great Niece is five-eighths Italian by blood.

Below, is a photo of my Great Niece with Paolo the Polar Bear, at the Restaurant yesterday: 

image.thumb.png.02e6c78e51deaac9cbc08db56aca8c82.png

I'm certain Paolo will benefit from the much cooler, fresher air of Orpington, than the humidity, heat and being stuck in a Wardrobe, in S.E.London.

I've instructed my Niece and her Husband, that Paolo needs a regular supply of fresh Fish/Seals and an occasional treat of some Whale meat. A Fishmonger in Orpington is already on the case!! 

So, a really enjoyable Day was had by all yesterday which helped ease the reality, of my advancing years!!

Regards,

Tom.    :hi: 

image.png

Edited by Blessed Weather
Promo details of restaurant removed.

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What a miserable day. The on/off rainfall has given 3.1mm here, but with the cool temps persisting and no sunshine it's probably done more good than greater rainfall totals that are followed immediately by hot sunshine seeing it all evaporate. Overnight temp here got down to 6C but at our Regional frost chart-topping location at Santon Downham it got down to a very chilly 1.2C. :cold:
Today's high only 13C and my thicker winter fleece made its first appearance.

For the record, here's the excellent cumulative rainfall deficit chart for East Anglia from Weatherquest, updated for August:

84233382_EARainfallAnomalySept16toAug19.thumb.jpg.b954519d83ef22fac7525b6028d19d6a.jpg

Source: Twitter @danholley_

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