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Blessed Weather

South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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21 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

OK, stop the rain dances now please. By the time we get to midnight tomorrow (Tues 1st) most in the Region will have seen another 30mm + (1 inch +) of rainfall and, if Euro4 is to be believed, some places 70mm + which is approaching 3 inches of rain. What a wet month. It's going to interesting to see the Met Office monthly summaries in a few days time.

Euro4: 731857431_Euro4CumPrecipMidnightTues01Oct.thumb.png.30c353167952d4ebcfeb46f921604e7f.png

I spotted the cygnets on our local river Brett over the weekend with their Mum. Sadly, when I photographed them as babies back in the Spring there were 7 of them and that's now down to 4. But that's nature I'm afraid. At least these beauties won't be batting an eyelid at this week's rainfall.

1928682972_SwanSpring.thumb.jpg.5d0010c7d8d445ac3bc52417fc2c2097.jpg  24140498_SwanAutumn.thumb.jpg.f860f9b2e969da18660e754c77de8a64.jpg

 

I only received 9mm so the Euro 4 seemed to of mostly exaggerated the accumulated rainfall quite a bit generally and the wettest zone looked and still looks a little north of the bright colours that are displayed across the south Midlands. Rainfall amounts in the far south is also quite a lot lower than that chart suggested there would be. The arpege and dwd icon where closer generally. 

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2 hours ago, jordan smith said:

I only received 9mm so the Euro 4 seemed to of mostly exaggerated the accumulated rainfall quite a bit generally and the wettest zone looked and still looks a little north of the bright colours that are displayed across the south Midlands. Rainfall amounts in the far south is also quite a lot lower than that chart suggested there would be. The arpege and dwd icon where closer generally. 

Don't forget that the amounts of rain I talked about and the chart shown is the cumulative rainfall from yesterday morning (when I posted) up to midnight tonight (Tues). But I have to agree, the amount of rainfall yesterday evening wasn't as much as I was expecting, with only 7.4mm here, so I too am thinking that yesterday morning's Euro4 was indeed overcooking the amounts. But we'll have to wait until today plays out to see how far short Euro4 might end up. We're due some slow moving heavy showers today so some places will see a soaking and some will avoid them. Various high res models confirm anything from 5 to 20mm but very location dependent. I'll take another look at today's total for my location once we pass midnight tonight.

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41 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Don't forget that the amounts of rain I talked about and the chart shown is the cumulative rainfall from yesterday morning (when I posted) up to midnight tonight (Tues). But I have to agree, the amount of rainfall yesterday evening wasn't as much as I was expecting, with only 7.4mm here, so I too am thinking that yesterday morning's Euro4 was indeed overcooking the amounts. But we'll have to wait until today plays out to see how far short Euro4 might end up. We're due some slow moving heavy showers today so some places will see a soaking and some will avoid them. Various high res models confirm anything from 5 to 20mm but very location dependent. I'll take another look at today's total for my location once we pass midnight tonight.

Yeah I was going to edit my post and say that I saw it was the model output from yesterday midnight and yeah I'm expecting to probably see quite a bit today as the showers seem to stall a little later in the southeast for a time got a shower around 7:00 this morning which lasted about 45 minutes but only 10 minutes of that was really heavy the rest of the time was light but it gave 3mm. So my total since the 22nd September is 92mm.

Edited by jordan smith

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It didn't take long for mother nature to balance things out.

According to Hadley Data Centre, the South East averages 504 mm Jan to Sept, and this year to 29th Sept we are currently at 439 mm. Considering the dry summer/year we have had, we are not doing too bad. Nothing unusual about this year when you look at the stats. Month by month is a different story.

We will have a wetter than average year, that is my bet.

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Met Office forecast for my area between 14:00 & 15:00: 80% Chance of heavy rain.

Weather in my area between 14:00 & 15:00: Pure sunshine with clouds far in the distance.

:nonono:

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And it shall be said that every storm will break up till 4:10pm when you shall be on route to dance pick up ~ Dami1.2

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Well that is quite a line of heavy rain and thunder passing overhead right now in Surbiton. I feel sorry for those on the school run as the rain is sporadically torrential and the thunder is every few minutes really crackling through the skies. Lovely to enjoy from the comfort of my home however over a cup of tea ⛈️☕  Seems to have passed through fairly quickly.

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huge crack of thunder over the City of London just now, I predict heavy rain in 30 mins when I head out of office

Cheers

FC

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The past couple of weeks here have been some of the wettest I can remember for at least a year and a half.

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17 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Well that is quite a line of heavy rain and thunder passing overhead right now in Surbiton. I feel sorry for those on the school run as the rain is sporadically torrential and the thunder is every few minutes really crackling through the skies. Lovely to enjoy from the comfort of my home however over a cup of tea ⛈️☕  Seems to have passed through fairly quickly.

You want to see what's behind it. Plenty more!

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4 minutes ago, biddie said:

You want to see what's behind it. Plenty more!

Ooohh, dare I say I hope you're right, or will it be a matter of being careful what I wish for?!

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Rudely woken from my Afternoon nap by rumbles of thunder here in Lee, about 20 minutes ago. :oldangry:

Some more intense cracks, a few minutes ago.

Decided to abandon the idea of Orthopaedic Pillow hunting until tomorrow, which looks like being a much calmer Day on the Weather front. Patience of some of those Brontophiles amongst you, finally rewarded. Some very noisy Dinosaurs out there, crashing about at the moment!!!!

Now downstairs with the wonderful aroma of my Wife's meatball sauce, wafting about. :clap:

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: 

Edited by TomSE12

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No Thunder for South Ockendon but there was an early shower of rain starting from 11:15 am and finishing at 11:45 am.  The rain has come back, starting with very light rain at 4:15pm and getting heavier by 4:30 am.   The rain stopped at 4:45pm and has restarted at 4:50 pm. Some of my plants in large planters have become flooded due to the amount of rain. I added extra soil to the dog rose and unidentifiable yellow flower.

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I thought I just heard a rumble, too...?

@TomSE12...Have you ever tried good, old tonic water for your aches and pains? I find that the quinine helps relieve the effects of my own slow drift into senescence...It worked for malaria.:oldgrin:

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My windows are getting hammered right now. Very loud, heavy rain here.

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23 minutes ago, Beet said:

My windows are getting hammered right now. Very loud, heavy rain here.

Live near you and haven't seen rain and such a prolonged thunderstorm over this part of London for a long time. My garden is flooded and now we have  hail too and it's already dark.

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We are only 30 miles north and mainly rain rather than thunder. Most storms appear east or north of london  ut only ever aboutbl 20 miles away

 

1 hour ago, Reefseeker said:

Ooohh, dare I say I hope you're right, or will it be a matter of being careful what I wish for?!

Take a look at the radar

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I'm under that white/lilac blob on the radar - rain is biblical, I've never seen rain go round corners, Thunder too.

It's starting to flood in Wycombe valley, give it half an hour when all that water comes down off the hills...!

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Very stormy looking skies but no thunder.

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4 hours ago, all weather said:

It didn't take long for mother nature to balance things out.

According to Hadley Data Centre, the South East averages 504 mm Jan to Sept, and this year to 29th Sept we are currently at 439 mm. Considering the dry summer/year we have had, we are not doing too bad. Nothing unusual about this year when you look at the stats. Month by month is a different story.

We will have a wetter than average year, that is my bet.

My gut feeling too. 

All that worrying folk do when it’s drier than normal then in a blink of an eye the UK is under water with a very wet September. 

Thats why I always embrace dry weather living in the UK. Yet more torrential rain falling out there currently.  

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