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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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For my viewing pleasure, I present you with a once in a winters time weather forecast. This forecast and been up and down and this mornings is the best yet. \o/ The light rain can do one.

Annotation 2020-02-26 080309.png

Edited by Dami
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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Posted Images

11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

and still the low pressure systems keep on coming, when will it stop?...as for any snow, I'm not holding my breath.

quite so. Alexa tells me I will have partly sunny weather tomorrow?

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WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

Snow  in the north of the region tomorrow....could we be any more on the cusp here in Wyccy!!

Edited by Team Squirrel
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So, looks like cold rain for many of us tomorrow, the excitement of it all ?

Bright and breezy at Heathrow today, some showers looming and not feeling especially cold at 8°C.

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Throughout the morning the Northern extent of the lows track is gradually being muted which net means the areas where the transition sets up is further south over London / Kent / Surrey

If the trend continues the yellow warning should extend further south with it !

At this stage based on all models im expecting mostly snow here

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23 minutes ago, fatyido said:

A weather warning! Seriously?

up to 1cm possible, could cause travel disruption!! Do me a favour....lauaghable

8E717A20-9918-49C7-B442-727EE59ABA72.png

Interesting that the met office site has just changed its graphics and is showing snow north of London and sleet not just around London but also way south of London too. So most of us could well see falling snow/sleet but it's most likely to settle on higher ground, mainly north of the M4, but also some places further south might see a temporary covering here and there, possibly even around London and to the south above 100m or so. Might be a few surprises tomorrow morning, fingers crossed.

Latest 06z fax shows the low slightly further south again.

fax24s.thumb.gif.060a210a84cdb6c23325e40af98a2c1a.gif

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Throughout the morning the Northern extent of the lows track is gradually being muted which net means the areas where the transition sets up is further south over London / Kent / Surrey

If the trend continues the yellow warning should extend further south with it !

At this stage based on all models im expecting mostly snow here

What do you make of the latest fax chart there Steve?

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Looks good to me

- Minimal WAA from SW ahead of the low > indicative of a shallow low

- zone of the 0c > -2c isotherm estimated to be well south of London > 0c may even be off the coast

- Reduced Northern extent of PPN shield

- Heaviest of the PPN to the south of London not North...

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks good to me

- Minimal WAA from SW ahead of the low > indicative of a shallow low

- zone of the 0c > -2c isotherm estimated to be well south of London > 0c may even be off the coast

- Reduced Northern extent of PPN shield

- Heaviest of the PPN to the south of London not North...

Met office says midlands and just north of m4 is the lowest it will go 

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Whilst the GFS has indeed moved further South on the 6z, generally high resolution modelling has been fairly stable now for the past few runs. Taking the Euro4 as an example, we can see that it has the snow line (certainly in terms of accumulation) pretty much in line with the warnings issued this morning

image.thumb.png.c95df0e3b098ab361c5bb8e834b4f7a6.png

That was actually significantly toned down when compared with the 0z run:

image.thumb.png.b53ade25c38448bfaa9adcfd3f470469.png

You might argue if you look really closely that the Southern-most boundary of snowfall has shifted south about 10-15 miles but that is being generous.

That said, I have seen many examples over the years of the reality of the situation being significantly further south than modelled - usually NWP has overestimated the depth of the low and so naturally the system tracks further south. Of course it's also worth bearing in mind that the weaker the LP is, the less intense any associated precipitation is likely to be with it, and I suspect evaporative cooling will be a big factor in where any snow falls (along with elevation of course).

image.png

Edited by snowking
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To think since November myself personally I've checked onto this forum atleast twice a day normally first thing in the morning and then around 12 time 

To finally have a chance of some snowfall falling and settling for my my 7 year old boy to see is mad really 

 

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I don't think its so much about it being too far south or north any more, more to do with the higher temps around greater London that might be the problem, urban heat in other words.

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7 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

And the big question, will any hill in our Region be able to manage some scenes like that early tomorrow? I have to say, with a rain-turning-to-snow event (so ground wet) and with temps around +2C, I think settling snow might be a big ask. Here's the forecasts for 08.00 tomorrow morning from Hirlam, NMM and Arpege. Spot the M4 corridor. :nea:

2023409316_Hirlamppn27Feb08_00.thumb.png.5c50ce734895c95c3ea554f42f313ca7.png1732271880_NMMppn27Feb08_00.thumb.png.292c10ac545ecc8926c6ab337df9be6a.png1568107924_Arpegeppn27Feb08_00.thumb.png.731a3d8d33716ae442206dcdc5023188.png

 

for the wrf nmm 2km which is my go to model and usually does a good job with precip / types you can zoom into the different regions of the UK for that extra bit of detail (for your region click on sud) but having a look through the short range models the main issue to me (as has been the case up here recently) is the dew points which look to be too high at around 2/3 C, some short range models indicate snow chances in East Anglia and the wrf nmm gives a chance for @Steve Murr and parts of Kent, possibly evaporative cooling? anim_ryf7.thumb.gif.900f91a498a8aeea1057383f2c94ffd4.gif anim_hxs6.thumb.gif.ff903ca480dd99fda72844f4ea42c968.gif

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