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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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Very wet morning here so far. Couple heavy showers passing through now after moderate rain. 

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i can see thehead ache its causing  the  bbc  at the  moment

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I have no idea where the Beeb keep getting storms from for my area. there's no indication in the models from what I can see 🤔

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A brief respite from the rain, but it will be coming back in an hours' time at 1pm. The barometric pressure has gown down to 993.8 h.P.a  The humidity percentage is between 83% to 84%.  The temperature is 17.4°C.

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

 

Myself and Colette had to spend a couple of nights at the Home, during "The Beast from the East" spell of Weather, in February 2018. Our Close gets extremely icy and impossible for vehicles to negotiate during cold, snowy Weather and Cab drivers refuse to "pick-up", from here. Colette's Manageress was only to pleased to put us "up" for a couple of Nights, as it meant that at least one Member of Staff was present on duty, at their appointed time. Some of the Staff from outlying areas couldn't make it in, as the roads were so treacherous!! I can remember Posting a report on conditions, on this very Thread. I likened it to a scene from "The Shining" with the Snow, lying deep, crisp and even outside in Chislehurst. On one of the Nights, one of the Residents tried to get into our room and I'm sure I heard then mutter, "Here's Johnny" :shok::help: 

Any excuse to Post up a couple of archived Synoptic Charts, from that fantastic spell of cold and snow.

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Any chance of a repeat this Winter?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fingers crossed for a repeat this winter Tom, as you know the BFTE and November 2010 are my top 2 snow events both ending up with a foot of snow here and of course the red snow warning during the BFTE 

Hopefully we all get plenty of snow this winter. 

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I walked down to Bexhill seafront today during the high tide and gusty winds, and encountered some minor coastal flooding! I took a couple of photos, but it got worse after I took these (My hands were too wet to take anymore)

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Took my boys Go-karting this morning. We all got soaked but they had a brilliant time. We live near Camber beach in East Sussex I decided to go and have a look at the sea but as soon as we got in to the car park we were told we needed to leave because it was high tide and the weather was causing high waves and it was to dangerous for us to go near.  we have had a few hours rest from the rain but its just started to drizzle again and  its very very windy.  Im very interested in Hurricane Lorenzo. Charts are all over the place which is to be expected. The track seems to be all over the place so only time will see.

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27 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Nearly an inch of rain here this past 24 hours!😜

Seems like we've had that much during the past hour: one torrential downpour after another!:yahoo:

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Wasn't expecting it to be this windy.. Came back from Ascot a minute ago and a big chestnut branch has come down 😞 

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Quiet in here tonight, at least the wind has died down, watching with much interest to see where lorenzo will end up

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51 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Quiet in here tonight, at least the wind has died down, watching with much interest to see where lorenzo will end up

Ireland looks most likely, although I am expecting a bumpy ride on my way to western France on Thursday.

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2 hours ago, snowrye said:

Quiet in here tonight, at least the wind has died down, watching with much interest to see where lorenzo will end up

Doing the winter forecast on Netweather perhaps?

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2 hours ago, snowrye said:

Quiet in here tonight, at least the wind has died down, watching with much interest to see where lorenzo will end up

The wind has been persistent for the last few days down here on this part of the South Coast, regularly gusting 30-40mph for the last 7 days. A number of beach huts on the seafront in St Leonards on Sea have been damaged by the high tides on Sunday. High tide on Monday will be even higher but hopefully winds won't be as strong.

Rainfall locally has also been quite noteable during that time as well, 74mm's ( close to 3 inches) in 7 days. It's been a quite dramatic change from recent summer like conditions.

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OK, stop the rain dances now please. By the time we get to midnight tomorrow (Tues 1st) most in the Region will have seen another 30mm + (1 inch +) of rainfall and, if Euro4 is to be believed, some places 70mm + which is approaching 3 inches of rain. What a wet month. It's going to interesting to see the Met Office monthly summaries in a few days time.

Euro4: 731857431_Euro4CumPrecipMidnightTues01Oct.thumb.png.30c353167952d4ebcfeb46f921604e7f.png

I spotted the cygnets on our local river Brett over the weekend with their Mum. Sadly, when I photographed them as babies back in the Spring there were 7 of them and that's now down to 4. But that's nature I'm afraid. At least these beauties won't be batting an eyelid at this week's rainfall.

1928682972_SwanSpring.thumb.jpg.5d0010c7d8d445ac3bc52417fc2c2097.jpg  24140498_SwanAutumn.thumb.jpg.f860f9b2e969da18660e754c77de8a64.jpg

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Photos not displaying. Re-uploaded.

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Its a calm start here in Rye this morning, very overcast. We have been under a severe flood warning on and off over the weekend, we still have one in place but at least its not a red warning at the moment. We live right on the river so its always tense when that happens. The tide is due to be a lot higher today but we don't have the wind at the moment so hopefully we will be fine. Ive been watching Lorenzo and this morning the Hurricane  centre has tracked it a lot further to the west so the winds will slightly clip the west of Ireland rather than a direct hit. Ive been keeping an eye on the newspaper reports again this year, I always like reading these for entertainment purposes. the usual suspects are up to it again, I believe the newest report is how cold it will get in mid October. who knows if they will be right but time will tell, from what they say we might be able to make snowmen and Halloween this year.😂 

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In my world 8c is cold enough for a warm jacket. Notice I don't  say coat. Coats are longer. People still wearing shorts and giving me in my jacket weird looks. In their defence, however, although it was sunny, there was still warmth in that sun and it didn't feel overly cold. 

 

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The dry conditions a distant memory & balancing out immensely here. 

Very heavy rain here & more forecast this week. 

Got a gut feeling we’re in for a very wet mild autumn & winter. Flooding already prominent and it’s only October tomorrow. 

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It's been mild enough for t shirts (& shorts in full sun!) in London recently. Longing for some cold weather now, especially some nights below 10 degrees! 🥵

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There was very light rain at 5:30 and by 6pm it became a deluge. The temperature is 16.2°C and humidity is at 75%.  The barometric pressure is at 1006.8 hPa and it is falling.

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33 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

It's been mild enough for t shirts (& shorts in full sun!) in London recently. Longing for some cold weather now, especially some nights below 10 degrees! 🥵

Looks good for some single digit temps Wednesday night.

 

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interesting tuesday   morning on the north norfolk /suffolk  coast  expecting  storm surge to  come

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Morning all,

"Pinch, punch, First Day of the Month" and all that.

Feels like I've been "Pinched and Punched" in my left shoulder, so decided to come downstairs and make myself an early Morning, cuppa. I prefer sleeping on my left hand side but as the pain was preventing me from sleeping any further, decided to get up. I have had a lot of "issues" with my left hand side, after my Haemorrhagic Stroke of four Years ago. Fortunately my dominant right hand side, remained unaffected by the event. Hoping to buy an Orthopaedic pillow on our travels today, which should help to alleviate the pain and allow me to get a reasonable night's, sleep. Oh, the joys of getting old!! :oldangry:

So, sitting here relaxing and about to watch a recording MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, Stav Danaos on duty last night. Below is a BBC Video link to the Forecast, for those Members who'd rather not read my commentary:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49872491

Stav began his Forecast by commenting on the amount of Rainfall we've seen over the U.K in the last two Weeks, especially England and Wales, where quite a few Rivers have broken their banks. Dozens of Flood Warnings remain in place, each Rain event exacerbating the problems.

The area of Low Pressure that brought the overnight Rain, will continue to dominate the scene on Tuesday. 

We may well see some heavy and thundery Showers breakout over our Region today, given the proximity of that Low. Still quite mild for our Region, as there is some Tropical Maritime air associated with this System. a Max, of around 18c or so, for the London area.  Overnight, cooler and drier air will move down from the North, pushing those heavy Showers away from our Region. A Min. of around 9c, for the London area.

So, quite a chilly start to Wednesday Morning but fine and dry, under an area of High Pressure. It should remain dry for our Region but feeling distinctly chilly under a N/N.W. flow. sourced from the Arctic. Plenty of Sunshine on offer though and with Winds falling light, a Max. of 14c for the London area, shouldn't feel too bad.

It should only be a brief spell of cooler Weather though, as our "old friend" Hurricane LORENZO starts to influence our Weather, as it moves closer towards our Shores. This feature is now moving North in mid-Atlantic, weakening as it does so. Computer Models are still having "issues", as to where this feature will end up?  It looks as though it will amalgamate with an area of Low Pressure, to the South of Greenland. Current thinking suggests it will stay West of the U.K. There's more certainty though in the fact that, it will eventually drag up some much milder air from the S.W., pushing that Arctic sourced air, back towards Scandinavia.

Thursday will probably stay dry over our Region and although Temps. will start on the cool side they will begin to rise, as we begin to import that milder air from the S.W.,  a Max. of 14c for the London area. 

Beyond Thursday/Friday, the Weekend and the early part of next Week, although Low Pressure will remain dominant in the N.Atlantic, bringing some rather unsettled Weather to the N.W. of the U.K., our Region should be more settled thanks to the proximity of High Pressure, over the near Continent. 

Stav ended his Forecast by suggesting that our Region has a better chance of staying more settled than the rest of the U.K. but there still remains a lot of uncertainty, further ahead.

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of, Stav Danaos.

Looks like myself and my Wife may well be dodging some heavy Showers in the search for my Pillow, today. ☔

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

 

Edited by TomSE12

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