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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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Inspired by snowray's original version, I've decided on a Format for a new Competition, which will be entitled -

The South East Region Weather Predicting Competition. The Competition will comprise of 4 Categories.

Having looked at the 00z Model Runs and noted that there seems little prospect of anything Wintry, in the near future, I will wipe the slate clean up to and including LAUREN's prediction of 20th February. All other predictions will stand after that date, beginning with - BLUEBELL and CLARET047, who both predicted 23rd February for the first date of "Settling Snow". All Entrants who made predictions for after 20th February, may change their mind, if they so wish.

CATEGORY 1: -

Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", as in Ray's Competition just a dusting will count but NOT Hail.

See link below, to Forecast Model Runs on the Meteociel Website:

http://www.meteociel.fr/

CATEGORY 2: - Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast area. See list below:

image.thumb.png.d4891e95469ff8d8810ecd5d60d95660.png

See map below, to Shipping Forecast areas: 

image.png.d5d7e16d0a4e0a08705732519e39a9bc.png

CATEGORY 3:-

Predict the exact Date and Temperature (to the nearest degree Celcius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season.

CATEGORY 4:-

Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region.

Please Copy/Paste your predictions, into the Boxes provided below:

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -

CAREGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area) -

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c (70f) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  

Your predictions MUST be posted on the South East Thread by, 9 PM Saturday 15th February.

Thank you.

I will decide on a Scoring System, in the next couple of Days. 

Regards,

Tom :hi:

 

Edited by TomSE12
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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

Posted Images

Well I really thought I wouldn't update my sig this year.

Shocked we saw some falling flakes at all! Been a very disappointing winter so far for me, my lack of NW activity over the season is a testament to how bad it has been!

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Im still convinced March will deliver a wintry week or 10 days. Better late than never I suppose. 

5c and sunny this morning in SW London. Looking lively again later in the week. 

At least any threats of hosepipe bans in the summer have well and truly gone now which is something. ? 

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Am I right that 'Timbo' has won the snow cup due to a very slight wet dusting of snow in the North west area of Norfolk?...if so that about sums up this winter and anyway without going on about regions again doesn't that area qualify more for East England?...was really looking forward to hoisting that trophy! ?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Inspired by snowray's original version, I've decided on a Format for a new Competition, which will be entitled -

The South East Region Weather Predicting Competition. The Competition will comprise of 4 Categories.

Having looked at the 00z Model Runs and noted that there seems little prospect of anything Wintry, in the near future, I will wipe the slate clean up to and including LAUREN's prediction of 20th February. All other predictions will stand after that date, beginning with - BLUEBELL and CLARET047, who both predicted 23rd February for the first date of "Settling Snow". All Entrants who made predictions for after 20th February, may change their mind, if they so wish.

CATEGORY 1: -

Predict the next Date of "Settling Snow", as in Ray's Competition just a dusting will count but NOT Hail.

See link below, to Forecast Model Runs on the Meteociel Website:

http://www.meteociel.fr/

CATEGORY 2: - Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast area. See list below:

image.thumb.png.d4891e95469ff8d8810ecd5d60d95660.png

See map below, to Shipping Forecast areas: 

image.png.d5d7e16d0a4e0a08705732519e39a9bc.png

CATEGORY 3:-

Predict the exact Date and Temperature (to the nearest degree Celcius), of the last AIR Frost of the Season.

CATEGORY 4:-

Predict the FIRST Date that 21c (70f), is recorded in the South East Region.

Please Copy/Paste your predictions, into the Boxes provided below:

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -

CAREGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area) -

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c (70f) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -  

Your predictions MUST be posted on the South East Thread by, 9 PM Saturday 15th February.

Thank you.

I will decide on a Scoring System, in the next couple of Days. 

Regards,

Tom :hi:

 

Hi Tom, thanks for all your hard work with the competition, not a bad result for me yesterday.

I would like to accept the virtual trip to Lapland please.

Just a quick question on the new competition,is there a cut of date for named storms, or is it for all of 2020?

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3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Am I right that 'Timbo' has won the snow cup due to a very slight wet dusting of snow in the North west area of Norfolk?...if so that about sums up this winter and anyway without going on about regions again doesn't that area qualify more for East England?...was really looking forward to hoisting that trophy! ?

Feel a little bit of sour grapes there!!!!

The competition was for settling snow in the region, and snow settled yesterday in a lot of locations.

I will let you know how my virtual trip to Lapland goes.

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4 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Feel a little bit of sour grapes there!!!!

The competition was for settling snow in the region, and snow settled yesterday in a lot of locations.

I will let you know how my virtual trip to Lapland goes.

I wanted that trophy ? ...to say a lot of locations?...only photo I have seen was that one in Wycombe (highish location) and on a car but suppose that counts and the reports in north west Norfolk. Well done for winning tho.

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5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I wanted that trophy ? ...to say a lot of locations?...only photo I have seen was that one in Wycombe (highish location) and on a car but suppose that counts and the reports in north west Norfolk. Well done for winning tho.

There was settling snow from Kings Lynn through to and including my location in Lowestoft, also reports of settling snow in the heavier showers further South.

Look at the photo from Norfolk n Chance, a bit more than a slushy deposit.

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3 minutes ago, Timbo said:

There was settling snow from Kings Lynn through to and including my location in Lowestoft, also reports of settling snow in the heavier showers further South.

Look at the photo from Norfolk n Chance, a bit more than a slushy deposit.

North Norfolk...this region hmmmm?...but agree that amount from Norfolk n chance photo deserves to win but in this region, where were your photos? but anyway Team Squirrel provided a photo of some wet snow on a Mazda MX5...so that would take it, so you are the winner.

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4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

North Norfolk...this region hmmmm?...but agree that amount from Norfolk n chance photo deserves to win but in this region, where were your photos? but anyway Team Squirrel provided a photo of some wet snow on a Mazda MX5...so that would take it, so you are the winner.

I think you need to go back to school and take some more Geography lessons!!!!, our region is South East and East Anglia, try getting a map up to define the boundaries of East Anglia.

Any way, let see how you get on with the next competition

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QUOTE - Timbo: 

"Hi Tom, thanks for all your hard work with the competition, not a bad result for me yesterday.

I would like to accept the virtual trip to Lapland please.

Just a quick question on the new competition, is there a cut of date for named storms, or is it for all of 2020?"

Congratulations Timbo, and thanks for your very kind words. I thoroughly enjoyed co-hosting the Competition, with snowray. It combines two subjects I like to think I know a little bit about, Bookmaking and Meteorology.

Re. your point about cut of date for named storms. I wondered that myself, it doesn't state an end date, on that Met Office. So, I don't know is the answer but I know a Lady, who might!

Btw, I 've thought of an additional poser to Category 2 -  

Category 2: Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast area. Also, which Shipping Forecast area will the CENTRE of the Storm, first enter?

image.thumb.png.911ee860d3b14bf67810120f8a071446.png

 

So, you're "virtually" off to Lapland then Timbo. Say hi to Santa for me, please. I would've chosen the same "Virtual" prize.

I think I will award "Virtual" money, re. a Scoring System and add that to "Virtual" monies won in a Betting aspect, to the Competition. I will have a think about that and Post up the value to each correct prediction, a little later.

There will only be one Betting Market though, that for Outright Winner and won't split Entrants into North and South of the Thames, although still "colour code" Entrants in the same way.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Just popping in from the Ireland thread.

Don’t be too downhearted if you missed out - so did a lot of us. We were predicted heavy snow showers - prime spot in the northwest of the country - since yesterday and all we’ve had are heavy hail squalls.
 

Maybe next time ?

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Nice day so far here in west London but still a very gusty W’ly wind. Feeling chilly at 7°C. Glad a few places saw some brief snowfall and hail in the region but it’s not been a good winter for anything cold. Storm Ciara has caused much mayhem on the continent across northern France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria. Lots of damage with power lines down, many trees uprooted and roofs blown off in the Czech Republic.

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33 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

QUOTE - Timbo: 

"Hi Tom, thanks for all your hard work with the competition, not a bad result for me yesterday.

I would like to accept the virtual trip to Lapland please.

Just a quick question on the new competition, is there a cut of date for named storms, or is it for all of 2020?"

Congratulations Timbo, and thanks for your very kind words. I thoroughly enjoyed co-hosting the Competition, with snowray. It combines two subjects I like to think I know a little bit about, Bookmaking and Meteorology.

Re. your point about cut of date for named storms. I wondered that myself, it doesn't state an end date, on that Met Office. So, I don't know is the answer but I know a Lady, who might!

Btw, I 've thought of an additional poser to Category 2 -  

Category 2: Predict the exact and final date, of the last named North Atlantic Storm, and it's name, to enter the Shipping Forecast area. Also, which Shipping Forecast area will the CENTRE of the Storm, first enter?

image.thumb.png.911ee860d3b14bf67810120f8a071446.png

 

So, you're "virtually" off to Lapland then Timbo. Say hi to Santa for me, please. I would've chosen the same "Virtual" prize.

I think I will award "Virtual" money, re. a Scoring System and add that to "Virtual" monies won in a Betting aspect, to the Competition. I will have a think about that and Post up the value to each correct prediction, a little later.

There will only be one Betting Market though, that for Outright Winner and won't split Entrants into North and South of the Thames, although still "colour code" Entrants in the same way.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

Have sent a PM to Jo Farrow, re. cut off date for named Storms.Perhaps we could have a "stab" at the Storm's central pressure when it enters the Shipping Forecast areas? 

In a short while, I will lead by example and post up my own predictions for the new Competition.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

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alexa tells me it won't rain today. It's raining.and windy. Not going to jump up and down but there *could* of been some sleet mixed in. One flake.

Now now what do we have 'ere. A cheeky *may* snow a little later for my area. Just a shower. Me : Not going to get excited

Also me :

giphy.gif

 

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Below, are my predictions for the The SOUTH EAST REGIONAL Weather Predicting Competition:

TOMSE12

CATEGORY 1: (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region) -

Friday 26th Feb. 

CATEGORY 2: ( exact date and name of last named Storm to enter Shipping Forecast area) - 

**Sunday 16th Feb, Dennis, Bailey (945 mbs)**.

CATEGORY 3: (exact date/Temp. to nearest degree Celsius, of last AIR Frost of the Season, in S.E.Region) -

Tuesday 26th May, -1c (30f).

CATEGORY 4: (exact date that 21c (70f) is first recorded, in the S.E.Region) -

Monday 20th April. 

**NB** - Since found out that Storm Season runs until September?? But for the purposes of this Competition, the cut off date will be Tuesday 31st March.

Having looked at the 00z Model Runs and noted that there seems little prospect of anything Wintry, in the near future, I will wipe the slate clean up to and including LAUREN's prediction of 20th February. All other predictions will stand after that date, beginning with - BLUEBELL and CLARET047, who both predicted 23rd February for the first date of "Settling Snow". All Entrants who made predictions for, after 20th February, may change their mind if they so wish.

Members entries MUST be posted on this Thread by, 9 PM on Saturday 15th February.

Thank you.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: 

 

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1 hour ago, seb said:

Storm Dennis has been officially named by the MetO and a yellow warning is no in place for Sat/Sun.

Repeat of Ciara?

Dennis?? Really? 

The tabloids are going to have field day with this one then. Ridiculous. 

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2 hours ago, Timbo said:

I think you need to go back to school and take some more Geography lessons!!!!, our region is South East and East Anglia, try getting a map up to define the boundaries of East Anglia.

Any way, let see how you get on with the next competition

Haha! yes you're right...funny thing is I always have considered this the south east thread (which it use to be) and largely involved the home counties but it is East Anglia as well, my geography is great and one of the few subjects I got an O level at (yes I'm that old) it was everything else I need to go back to school for ? ...but yes not doubting you're the winner, it's just the poor circumstances that this countries god dammed awful winter weather provides us with and a sprinkling of snow in a few locations in one day over 90 days of winter!

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27 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Haha! yes you're right...funny thing is I always have considered this the south east thread (which it use to be) and largely involved the home counties but it is East Anglia as well, my geography is great and one of the few subjects I got an O level at (yes I'm that old) it was everything else I need to go back to school for ? ...but yes not doubting you're the winner, it's just the poor circumstances that this countries god dammed awful winter weather provides us with and a sprinkling of snow in a few locations in one day over 90 days of winter!

There's no doubt that Timbo won, there were reports of temporary coverings of snow in a few places not just Norfolk, although I always had a feeling that Norfolk would get the 1st snow of the winter in our region due to it's location up there. It would of course have been lovely if the winning snow day had produced widespread snowfall, but in this current poor winter yesterday is as good as it gets. And by the look of current model output, which looks poor for coldies, no more white stuff for the foreseeable apart from a couple of flakes in the wind today. 

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A very cold wind whipped across Nonsuch Park under mostly cloudless blue skies for the very muddy dog walk this morning. A few tree branches were down and I noticed yesterday Bushey Park was closed for the clear-up operation as I drove past first thing. Here are some pics from the 'bracing' trot around. 

 

IMG_20200211_094041.jpg

IMG_20200211_094149.jpg

IMG_20200211_100359.jpg

IMG_20200211_133214.jpg

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 Apologies to snowray, for pinching his original list of first date of Settling Snow predictions, from his Competition.

I have now "wiped the slate clean" and removed all those predictions that now look doomed to failure. The list below will now form the basis of Category 1 (next date of "Settling Snow, in the S.E.Region). Those Members who wish to enter the new Competition, are not obliged to stick with these predictions and have up to 9 PM, on Sat.15th Feb., to change their mind. 

         Member                                   Dates (2020)

         Bluebell                                     22nd Feb

         snowray                                    22nd Feb                       

         snow Queen one                      24th Feb

         SenlacJack                               26th Feb

         TomSE12                                  26th Feb

         Donna thw                                27th Feb

         pinball wizard                          29th  Feb

         lassie23                                    29th  Feb

         Snowrye                                   1st  Mar

         Froze were the days                9th Mar

         claret 047                                  23rd Mar

         General Cluster                        29th Nov

Later on Today, I will reveal details of the Scoring System I'll be using. At the moment I'm favouring "crediting" each correct prediction with a "virtual" amount of money.

The Entrant that accrues the most "virtual" money, shall be deemed the Winner. More details, this Evening.

Once all the Entries are in, I'll create a "Book" (Betting Market), and you will be allocated an amount to place on your prediction, in a "Virtual" Wager. 

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

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Can report we had about 4 minutes of small flakes here at around 12.15pm. Have a horrible feeling that might well be all I see this winter.

Bitterly cold gusty wind and 5°c.

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