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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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New record for my cheapo chlas Olsen weather station, gust of 65.2mph in the back garden. Minimal damage so far and glad I booked the day off work tomorrow (accident repair centre) as there will be claim after claim for vehicle damage.

We are lucky to have some power but must be restricted as there isn't enough voltage to run the heating or anything that needs a few hundred watts.

Was the perfect excuse for an afternoon in the Jolly Sailors in Brancaster. Roast, woodburner and good beer!

 

 

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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

Posted Images

Made it to London City airport from Prague. Was fairly smooth flying until descent, then went through some nasty turbulence and dense clouds. My flight was the only one to land there today, as everything else had been cancelled. 

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XThank goodness that's over, was really wild while waiting for the squall to finally go through here, heard sirens while it was going on, so hope everything is alright. Still blowing more than most of the day, but less frequently. In the 60s when it does Gust. 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The surfer should arrested for wasting police time & made to pay back the cost of the launch of the RNLI.

There would have been copious amounts of danger signs on the beach front today + the TV coverage > to be honest Should have let drown > Imagine if one of the crew woukd have their lost their lives to someone who actually had control of the situation to start with.

Not just the RNLI. The coastguard sent the helicopter up as well. That's thousands wasted on an idiot, let alone that brave people risked their lives to save him.

Edited by Crepuscular Ray
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I really hope we see some snow tomorrow. I know that’s wishful thinking but wouldn’t that be nice. I don’t like the fact it’s going to be cold with rain and wind this week. It’s not fair. We deserve a little bit of snow.  It’s a lot calmer here now.  I wouldn’t mind some warmth now. I really want to take my lego obsessed son to LEGOLAND on Saturday but not so sure now that we seem to have another storm hanging in the wings. Anyone got a clue if it will hit Saturday??

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3 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I really hope we see some snow tomorrow. I know that’s wishful thinking but wouldn’t that be nice. I don’t like the fact it’s going to be cold with rain and wind this week. It’s not fair. We deserve a little bit of snow.  It’s a lot calmer here now.  I wouldn’t mind some warmth now. I really want to take my lego obsessed son to LEGOLAND on Saturday but not so sure now that we seem to have another storm hanging in the wings. Anyone got a clue if it will hit Saturday??

You're in the wrong place for that.

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19 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

The gusts really seem strong at the moment 

You can keep them, had enough earlier, only just starting to get gusts in the 50s they've been in the 60s up until recently. 

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3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Once Ciara, Dennis and possibly Ellen are out the way, the 12z Model Runs (that go that far out) seemingly want to quieten things down:  

              ECM (t216) 18th FEB                                      GFS (t216) 18th FEB

image.thumb.png.98838e73d694a7cb51dc9af19e9bc2c8.png        image.thumb.png.24948a6cda5f609500753395085b571c.png

The Jet Stream looks to take a trip North, as High Pressure starts to build in from the South.

QUOTE - Mark Wheeler:

"An opportunity to win the snow cup tonight for some"

          GFS PPN (t30) 10th FEB

image.thumb.png.1152d51e7505cf8319506d33a2f37d14.png

Still think TIMBO has a chance to claim victory with some "neige" (green hatched area) showing up close to our Region, late Tomorrow Afternoon/early Evening.

Thereafter, I'm struggling to see where our Snow chances are going to come from?

I really can't have a complete Snowless Winter, on my mind!!  :nonono:

Surely, somewhere in our Region will receive at least a slight dusting of Snow, in the next few Weeks.

Having seen Tonight's Model Runs, I would make those Entrants who predicted a Date in the last third of February, in the "Settling Snow" Cup, Favourites now. 

Ray (snowray), I hope you're preparing your Tie-Break question,

"Septic" has had a Chicken Casserole bubbling away in a Slow Cooker for a couple of hours now, and I'm off to "fill my boots", with it.!! :gathering: 

Hope you all enjoy your Evenings, at least it's a lot quieter out there now.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

image.png

Hi Tom. Yes Timbo is still looking favorite, might see a few flakes Monday/Tuesday but can they produce a temporary covering? After this I'm now focusing on late February or early March, can't see much interest mid month, the few more blocked looking runs seem to have been just red herrings.

24-574UK.thumb.gif.5d0f5f347a812f4d8fcc784f966055cf.gif45-574UK.thumb.gif.9d5f63e870ff56244f3148d8bfff7729.gif

Anyone spot this down in Swanley, close call or what!?

uk-england-51433870.thumb.png.75b49dea83ea5f0944aa0bcf607bdfc2.png

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10 minutes ago, snowray said:

Hi Tom. Yes Timbo is still looking favorite, might see a few flakes Monday/Tuesday but can they produce a temporary covering? After this I'm now focusing on late February or early March, can't see much interest mid month, the few more blocked looking runs seem to have been just red herrings.

24-574UK.thumb.gif.5d0f5f347a812f4d8fcc784f966055cf.gif45-574UK.thumb.gif.9d5f63e870ff56244f3148d8bfff7729.gif

Anyone spot this down in Swanley, close call or what!?

uk-england-51433870.thumb.png.75b49dea83ea5f0944aa0bcf607bdfc2.png

The exact reason why rail companies run slowly on windy days, had it been going full speed, not worth thinking about what would have happened. 

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Here are the maximum wind gusts recorded by the official stations in East Anglia up to yesterday evening (9th) :

163923924_EastAngliaWindGusts09Feb2020Ciara.thumb.jpg.b13aa9438e735aeadbe92d6cdf43c43a.jpg

No records broken but you have to go back a few years to find similar strengths, e.g. Monks Wood not since 2005 and Marham 2007.
Chart and stats courtesy of Dan Holley, Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_

And now with nervous anticipation we look to this afternoon - can we possibly see a wet snow flake whistling along in the gusty wind as a heavier area of precipitation moves through? ?

NMM Precip15.00 904209586_NMMPrecip10Feb15_00.thumb.png.ddf09e12d3e28b03b3ecaa36d03e1d88.png

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Quote - Ray (snowray): 

"Hi Tom. Yes Timbo is still looking favorite, might see a few flakes Monday/Tuesday but can they produce a temporary covering? After this I'm now focusing on late February or early March, can't see much interest mid month, the few more blocked looking runs seem to have been just red herrings".

Hi Ray. Yes time for TIMBO, to "step up to the plate", in the S.E.Region "Settling Snow" Cup but it well maybe a case of "close but no cigar."

Some Wintry ppn knocking on the door of our Region, "settling Snow" hope I'm wrong but don't think so. 

                  GFS PPN (t18)

image.thumb.png.99f97fed6d705c58de9f1106aa32db5e.png

But should a "dusting" occur, I hope S.E.Members will have their Cameras ready, to provide photographic evidence.

So, as Shaw Taylor used to say at the end of Police 5, "keep 'em peeled." It was the forerunner of Crimewatch UK, and appeared on TV, during the '60's and '70's.

image.png.9cd6e12f76acf22094f0a336e79a470c.png

Right who shouted, 1860 and 1870? Bloomin' cheek, 15 minutes on the "naughty step", now.  

Thereafter imo, nothing especially Wintry showing up for the following Week and a bit, on the 00z Model Runs.

As I stated Yesterday, don't think that KATRINE BASSO, will be on her own for long before other Entrants become early casualties.

This will see, STEVE MURR (14th), TOMSE12 (14th), DANIEL (15th), SEPTIC PEG (15th),  LOTTIEKENT (16th), STAINESBLOKE (19th), TEAM SQUIRREL (19th) and LAUREN (20th), all make an early exit and join Katrine, on the sidelines The RED Team could be decimated, come the end of next Week. :shok:  Come on REDS, sort your lives out!!

RED = South Thames Group.

BLUE = North Thames Group.

Tend to agree with snowray, late February predictions now looking favourite but we are going to need to see a pattern change, to see a turnaround in our fortunes.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: ❄️

Edited by TomSE12
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15 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Quote - Ray (snowray): 

"Hi Tom. Yes Timbo is still looking favorite, might see a few flakes Monday/Tuesday but can they produce a temporary covering? After this I'm now focusing on late February or early March, can't see much interest mid month, the few more blocked looking runs seem to have been just red herrings".

Hi Ray. Yes time for TIMBO, to "step up to the plate", in the S.E.Region "Settling Snow" Cup but it well maybe a case of "close but no cigar."

                  GFS PPN (t18)

image.thumb.png.99f97fed6d705c58de9f1106aa32db5e.png

But should a "dusting" occur, I hope S.E.Members will have their Cameras ready, to provide photographic evidence.

So, as Shaw Taylor used to say at the end of Police 5, "keep 'em peeled." It was the forerunner of Crimewatch UK, and appeared on TV, during the '60's and '70's.

image.png.9cd6e12f76acf22094f0a336e79a470c.png

Right who shouted, 1860 and 1870? Bloomin' cheek, 15 minutes on the "naughty step", now.  

Some Wintry ppn knocking on the door of our Region, "settling Snow" hope I'm wrong but don't think so. 

Thereafter imo, nothing especially Wintry showing up for the following Week and a bit, on the 00z Model Runs.

As I stated Yesterday, don't think that KATRINE BASSO, will be on her own for long before other Entrants become early casualties.

This will see, STEVE MURR (14th), TOMSE12 (14th), DANIEL (15th), SEPTIC PEG (15th),  LOTTIEKENT (16th), STAINESBLOKE (19th), TEAM SQUIRREL (19th) and LAUREN (20th), all make an early exit and join Katrine, on the sidelines The RED Team could be decimated, come the end of next Week. :shok:  Come on REDS, sort your lives out!!

RED = South Thames Group.

BLUE = North Thames Group.

Tend to agree with snowray, late February predictions now looking favourite but we are going to need to see a pattern change, to see a turnaround in our fortunes.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: ❄️

A bit late but I've two possible dates lol, basically because I've important appointments in Canterbury on those days, and something is bound to go wrong yet again. 26 Feb and the 4th March lol. 

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22 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Quote - Ray (snowray): 

"Hi Tom. Yes Timbo is still looking favorite, might see a few flakes Monday/Tuesday but can they produce a temporary covering? After this I'm now focusing on late February or early March, can't see much interest mid month, the few more blocked looking runs seem to have been just red herrings".

Hi Ray. Yes time for TIMBO, to "step up to the plate", in the S.E.Region "Settling Snow" Cup but it well maybe a case of "close but no cigar."

Some Wintry ppn knocking on the door of our Region, "settling Snow" hope I'm wrong but don't think so. 

                  GFS PPN (t18)

image.thumb.png.99f97fed6d705c58de9f1106aa32db5e.png

But should a "dusting" occur, I hope S.E.Members will have their Cameras ready, to provide photographic evidence.

So, as Shaw Taylor used to say at the end of Police 5, "keep 'em peeled." It was the forerunner of Crimewatch UK, and appeared on TV, during the '60's and '70's.

image.png.9cd6e12f76acf22094f0a336e79a470c.png

Right who shouted, 1860 and 1870? Bloomin' cheek, 15 minutes on the "naughty step", now.  

Thereafter imo, nothing especially Wintry showing up for the following Week and a bit, on the 00z Model Runs.

As I stated Yesterday, don't think that KATRINE BASSO, will be on her own for long before other Entrants become early casualties.

This will see, STEVE MURR (14th), TOMSE12 (14th), DANIEL (15th), SEPTIC PEG (15th),  LOTTIEKENT (16th), STAINESBLOKE (19th), TEAM SQUIRREL (19th) and LAUREN (20th), all make an early exit and join Katrine, on the sidelines The RED Team could be decimated, come the end of next Week. :shok:  Come on REDS, sort your lives out!!

RED = South Thames Group.

BLUE = North Thames Group.

Tend to agree with snowray, late February predictions now looking favourite but we are going to need to see a pattern change, to see a turnaround in our fortunes.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi: ❄️

And, if you do you notice anything suspicious, remember to call Whitehall 1212!:hi:

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Hi Alexis,

It's actually snowray's Competition. Ray, might accept your entry (only one Date though) but with a Penalty? 

Don't forget, Katrine has already been eliminated.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:❄️

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16 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

Hi Alexis,

It's actually snowray's Competition. Ray, might accept your entry (only one Date though) but with a Penalty? 

Don't forget, Katrine has already been eliminated.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:❄️

Don't want to jump in, if it runs next year I'll give it a go, was just saying those were likely dates for disruptive snow, as I need to travel lol. 

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Met Office now have a few sleet and snow symbols up for our region for later on today and also for tonight. GFS actually shows the chance of some settling snow to the south of London, this would also correspond with a batch of snow showers that the Met Office are forecasting.

15-574UK.gif

15-780UK.gif

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