Jump to content
Blessed Weather

South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

Recommended Posts

Below, for those Members who'd rather not read my own ramblings on the subject, is a BBC Video link to  MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, Stav Danaos on shift this Morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49833944

Stav started his Forecast by stating that Wednesday saw a brief spell of settled weather, due to being between Weather Systems. But that settled spell was extremely brief and the current System arrived overnight bringing with associated Fronts and Rainfall. A quick glance at the Radar reveals that the Warm Front has already exited our Region with the Cold Front waiting in the wings, just to our West. This should have cleared all of our Region, by mid-Morning. Skies should then brighten with a few light showers possible. A blustery Day to be had and a Max.Temp. of around 20c, for the London area. 

Another blustery Day on Friday with some Showers or perhaps some longer spells of Rain, with a Max. Temp,, a tad down on today's at around 18c, for the London area.

Low Pressure will be dominating the scene, for the Weekend. This courtesy of the Jet Stream which will continue to come at us across the Atlantic all Week, on a West to East trajectory, steering Weather Systems towards our Shores.

Saturday, certainly looks to be the best Day of the Weekend with just one or two Showers and some Sunny Spells with Max.Temps. of around 18c, for the London area. Overnight Saturday into Sunday, looks to see an area of Low Pressure track across the U.K. Still some uncertainty to the exact track of this Low but our Region is likely to see some very wet and potentially, windy Weather on Sunday Morning. The Rain will eventually push off into the N.Sea, by the Afternoon. Drier and brighter, behind the Rain band but a Northerly wind will bring some cooler air down across the Country, a Max.Temp. a tad down at 16c/17c, for the London area.

A fine, chilly start to Monday under a temporary ridge of High Pressure and likely to stay Dry for our Region with some sunshine and a Max.Temp. of around 17c, for the London area. Monday Night into Tuesday, sees another Weather System track across the Country, bringing with it associated Fronts and Rainfall, for our Region. Another Arctic sourced Northerly will follow in this System's wake, so it will feel pretty chilly Midweek, especially under clear skies at Night.

Stav then drew our attention to the remnants of ex-Hurricane LORENZO,

this is likely to amalgamate with a Low in Mid-Atlantic, which could affect our Weather come the end of next Week.

Although we'll see a chillier spell of Weather for a while, Stav ended his Forecast by stating that ex-Hurricane LORENZO will deliver some warmer air to the U.K but at the same time turning it unsettled again.

Stav reiterated that there's still a lot of uncertainty (that word again!!) with the Forecast, for this coming Weekend.

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Stav Danaos.

I'm really pleased to bring you the news that Colette's old Polar Bear, Uncle Svarlbard (now rechristened Paolo) - 

image.thumb.png.fc73b0e15aa541c12a6021f9ffa5055c.png has settled in well, in his new surroundings of Orpington.

He's already benefitting from the cooler, fresher air of the area. My Great Niece takes him everywhere she goes, School, Shopping, etc. My Niece tells me that her Daughter has been trying to feed Paolo, cans of Salmon and Tuna. That's fine but he also needs some Seal and the occasional treat of a Beluga Whale. Not sure if my Niece can get hold of Canned Seal/Whale Meat from Sainsburys, Tescos, Waitrose, etc. Any specialised Fishmongers out there, in the Orpington area?

Paolo's really hoping to see scenes like this, during the Winter Months in Orpington. Below, Orpington Station covered in Snow, possibly 2010? 

image.thumb.png.6db2027a6b6b1a277a9bbbe1434535a1.png

Myself and Colette caught sight of his former homeland of Svarlbard, on a Sky News Climate Change report. The report came from the unpronounceable Capital of Longyearbyen.

Why not take a Cruise up there, to meet Paolo's Cousins? Prices from only £3,538 per Person!! :shok: See link below:

https://www.hurtigruten.co.uk/destinations/svalbard/realm-of-the-polar-bear/

I sincerely hope this Morning's Posts have been more palatable for Members. 

Thanks to all those Members again for your kind messages in Posts and P.M's. You all know who you are.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find Thurrock's rainfall/snowfall is always underestimated due to the lack of reliable data as there is no weather in Thurrock or in Basildon (Basildon temperatures are always slightly cooler).  In February 2009 Thurrock got a heavy snowfall which blocked the M25 and probably the A13 but this was not mentioned in news or weather reports.  Traffic was practically at a standstill in Daiglen Drive and surrounding roads and I could walk quicker than the traffic. This would have been like that through Thurrock as well a wind gauge. I am thinking of investing in a rainwater gauge and hopefully it will also measure the amount of snowfall.  I have two garden thermometers and they both give slightly different readings.  I have two indoor weather stations which one has an outside monitor.  I also have a traditional wooden and brass wall barometer but none of the weather stations devices monitor wind speed.

Edited by Katrine Basso

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

  In February 2009 Thurrock got a heavy snowfall which blocked the M25 and probably the A13 but this was not mentioned in news or weather reports.  Traffic was practically at a standstill and I could walk quicker than the traffic.  

The M25 was mentioned at the start of this video and some footage from the M25 at around 2 minutes 15 seconds, also some mentions in this article "The snow also resulted in jack-knifed lorries blocking the M1 and the M25

A BBC reporter at Gatwick said many people were stranded there with trains services cancelled and taxis out of service due to gridlock on the M25, and that long queues had built up for hotels.

The M25 is closed clockwise between Reigate and Leatherhead, junctions 8 and 9 and there are reports of several vehicles becoming stuck in the snow."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7863374.stm

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just missed a shower before the school run, 17c according to the garden, no coat needed and bubs just had her fleece lined raincoat with her just in case. Sunny with a little wind, temps up to 20c. 

Quite pleasant. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Blimey, don’t go on here for a couple of days and all hell breaks loose. Hopefully, no one will be leaving the forum, especially the SE thread. Always been a friendly place with plenty of humour. We’re all on here for one thing: the weather! Despite all our varied likes/dislikes, makes it all the more interesting.

Very showery day here near Heathrow, everything sodden and big puddles galore. Feeling quite warm, though, which is nice.

Edited by stainesbloke

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weather's been changing pretty erratically here in Harrow. It's been cloudy, then there was drizzle, then heavy rain, and now the skies are clear with the sun out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning all,

Up early to have breakfast with my Wife, before she started her early Morning shift.

Our breakfast was accompanied by the sound of a very vociferous Vixen?? (that's not easy to type, first thing in the Morning!!:nonono:).

Evidently, they only mate at the start of the Year. I think this individual may well have been calling for it's breakfast, as one of our Neighbours is famous for feeding Foxes. We heard plenty of "concertos", during the long and balmy Summer Nights, just passed!!!

I'm sure Colette's thankful I don't make that noise, when wanting my breakfast!! :nonono:

Right, onto MeteoGroup's extended Forecast. Below is a BBC Video link to the Forecast, Helen Willetts on shift:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49847261

Helen started her Forecast by stating that we've already made up for the dry start to September, across the U.K. but more Rain, is on the way. A mass of cloud out in mid-Atlantic, waiting in the wings for overnight Saturday, into Sunday. But ahead of that some torrential downpours likely, in the form of Showers.

Today, we're likely to see some heavy Showers possibly with hail/thunder, after a dry start with some sunshine. The Showers should move through quite quickly on brisk winds, from the S.W. Max. Temps. for the London area, around 18c.

Tomorrow, sees Sunday's "troublemaker" starts to move in from the S.W. Some Tropical Air will be "encased" in this System, which will mean some copious amounts of Rain, are likely to fall. Saturday looks a very reasonable start, it should start dry, after any overnight Showers have exited the extreme S.E., of our Region. Max.Temps., again around 18c, for the London area. 

Cloud will then thicken, as that deepening area of Low Pressure moves up from the S.W., bringing with it some heavy Rain and strong Winds. Allied to high Tides, there could potentially be some localised flood issues, for Southern Coastal areas of our Region. Once that Rain eventually moves out of our Region, a strong N.W. wind will arrive in it's wake. A "drying out" picture, moving through Sunday then with Sunny spells developing and a Max.Temp again of around 18c, for the London area. 

The start of the new Week, sees a brief respite from the unsettled Weather, under a temporary Ridge of High Pressure. Dry for our Region on Monday then with some Sunny spells and a Max.Temp. of around 18c again, for the London area. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the Weather goes "downhill" yet again with more Rain moving across our Region. This Rain will eventually clear away on Tuesday, from our Region with Sunny spells developing and a Max.Temp. of around 17c, for the London area.

Wednesday should see a drier spell of Weather, for our Region but Helen suggests it's not set to last, as Low Pressure (amalgamated with ex-Hurricane LORENZO) in mid-Atlantic,looks to become the dominant feature again. Although our Region should escape the worst of the Wind and Rain and it will feel quite muggy, as the Tropical Air associated with that feature, floods across the U.K.

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Helen Willetts.

So, a very disturbed spell of Weather to come over the Weekend then, for our Region.

Something to watch out for today, IMO. Is something I mentioned a while ago, we'll have an unstable S.W. flow with a reasonable length of track across the English Channel, whose S.S.T's are relatively high at the moment. At the start of her Forecast Helen's graphics suggested some heavy ppn in the form of Showers which could well be squally and thundery with some hail mixed in, pecking away at our S.E. Coastline, which could be of interest to those Brontophiles amongst our Members in those locations, as we go through today.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cute little rainbow I encountered underneath a dissipating shower:

 

B47CED2E-CFE7-4D9E-B0D1-A00EABA2903A.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It just absolutely chucked it down momentarily! I’d say it was very Heavy on my scale, just touching on torrential for a very brief moment . See the Convective discussion thread for my scale.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just had very intense winds in that squall that came past, a warning ton anyone else in the path. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any lingering thoughts of droughts will soon be a distant memory! Hosing it down here once more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Any lingering thoughts of droughts will soon be a distant memory! Hosing it down here once more.

Not here. Only had 5.6mm from Tuesday's episode. Not had an awful lot more today. Will take an awful lot more to overcome the last two dry years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of rain on the models but just a brief spitting shower earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have not seen any rain yet, but there maybe rain earlier on as I saw remnants of rain on cars and in my back garden.  It is supposed to rain later on in the day but the chance of rain is 50%.  Hopefully, there will be rain on Sunday and that Thurrock will get a deluge of rain and not the fine drizzle.  It was difficult to sleep last night due to the humidity and prickly heat. It makes my skin very itchy. The barometric pressure has been going up and down, but it has stabilised at 1002.2.  The Temperature at 14:25 is 17.4°C and the humidity is at 70%.  I will be getting my garden wind and rainwater gauge in a month's time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the first wave of showers earlier largely missed my location, with just a very short, albeit sharp shower. More a feature here today has been the gusty wind with a 33 mph top speed so far. The second wave of organised showers on the way looks pretty potent for the north of our Region, but further south the band is looking more fragmented and I suspect I'll miss out again. By the way, I see there were a couple of lightning strikes near Northampton earlier - anyone see/hear anything?

14.50 1182145420_Radar27Sept14_50.thumb.jpg.947d506ea7f43d75fb14d798f2503687.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No lightning here but a pretty 'aggressive' blustery shower coming through at the moment, got our carnival this weekend and can't remember such conditions over recent years (usually has been fairly warm and settled) - wonder if some of the taller rides at the accompanying fun fair will be open if these winds keep up! (Not that I'll be on them at my age).😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, thunder and lightning for Thurrock.  There was at least a half an hour of moderate rainfall.  There could have been more, as I am not sure when the rain started, approximately around 2:30pm.  The rain stopped around 10 minutes ago and it is 3:47pm. The temperature is 17.0ºC and the humidity is at 77%. The barometric pressure is at 1001.9 hPa.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have decided I picked one hell of a day and time to get Bubs hair cut. Hairdressers not 4 minutes away but we shall get blown there or i may need to find a boat.

OH My Thunder !:yahoo:

Edited by Dami

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeez, it's like a tropical storm out there. :shok:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that there are parts of the South East and East Anglia, that get more rain than forecasted.  I am sure when I have got rainwater gauge I will be able to calculate the correct amount of rain fall for South Ockendon as well a manual wind gauge the wind speed and direction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Jeez, it's like a tropical storm out there. :shok:

Very heavy rain and plenty of C-C strikes.  At one point, the rain was rebounding several inches from our concrete garden path/ramp from the French doors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...