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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

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So as we enter meteorological Autumn, a new thread for us to continue chatting about the weather and its impact here in the SE & EA Region.

To start the new thread, a look back at the Met Office data for the last 3 Septembers. First of all the mean temperatures for the month confirm there should be plenty of warmth available for our Region:

Mean Temps 2016 131539951_SeptTemps2016.thumb.jpg.607c5379c4a442fc74771236f7618afb.jpg 2017 1788548741_SeptTemps2017.thumb.jpg.09105973a3779a11e6981d0b5f265ed0.jpg 2018 225505527_SeptTemps2018.thumb.jpg.05c93b7deaabc30258c04df120d9111c.jpg

But rainfall is not so readily available and Sept in recent years has been below the long-term average:

Actual rainfall 2016 996531474_SeptRainfall2016.thumb.jpg.b661fbea9f2f8efd9459cc81f7d48799.jpg 2017 1183980670_SeptRainfall2017.thumb.jpg.8ea16cb8afb5cd0b3465abc97b9d8b85.jpg 2018 203734730_SeptRainfall2018.thumb.jpg.68e7d8db9169a3961e7df02905b2ae02.jpg

Rainfall Anomaly 2016 2046911477_SeptRainfallAnom2016.thumb.jpg.c67dc6632e00bddc184d319f06b10403.jpg 2017 200189149_SeptRainfallAnom2017.thumb.jpg.6bc4c46d6658b02a804958075956f7b2.jpg 2018 713343024_SeptRainfallAnom2018.thumb.jpg.bf6e444e9b2f4d8831bf7e4242518ff6.jpg

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps

I don't know about everyone else, but in September I like to see a real mix of weather, from wet and windy to lovely sunny and warm days and a few misty mornings thrown in. We will have to see what Mother Nature decides for us this year.

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Apologies to Malcolm, I didn't realise he was about to lock the old thread.

So, here is a repeat of my Post for my interpretation of MeteoGroups extended Forecast, for our Region:

Morning all,

Up early again to take my medication.

Now relaxing with a cuppa but was frustrated to find a "failed to record" messge against MeteoGroup's, early Morning Forecast.

But thankfully it's already available on iPlayer. Here is the BBC link to the Forecast, with Nick Miller:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49535832

Nick began his Forecast stating that last Sunday we reached 33c, in our Region. Today, we'll only likely reach 21c in the S.E., as we commence 3 Months of Meteorological Autumn.

So, "what a difference a Week makes, 168 little hours".

Today, sees our Region join the the rest of the U.K., in a cool and fresh Polar Maritime N.W. flow. On the plus side, it should stay dry, with long sunny spells. So, "pinch but not too much punch". Overnight, quite a "punch" to those Min. Temps., down to around 8c for the London area.

The new working Week begins dry for the S.E., with some cloud about, interspersed with sunny spells and with Max.Temps., recovering to 22c for the London area. Tuesday, sees more cloud around with a couple of Fronts approaching the S,E but as we are close to an area of High Pressure, our Region should stay largely dry with Max.Temps up to around 23c, for the London area.

After recovering somewhat, Max.Temps will dip again as we head into Wednesday behind a passage of a Cold Front and the day's Weather looks like being a repeat of today's Weather, it should stay dry with a decent amount of sunshine, Max.Temps. a bit on the cool side at 20c with a coolish N.W. breeze.  On Thursday a ridge attempts to build across the S.E., from a large area of High Pressure situated out to the S.W. of the U.K., meaning the Weather is likely to be settled with spells of sunshine and a Max.Temp of 21c, for the London area.

Friday, sees High Pressure poised to move in for the Weekend but not before we've experienced a rather cool day, as a N.W/N. flow extends across our Region, on the Eastern flank of this High but it should remain dry with sunny spells and a Max.Temp. probably around 20c, for the London area. 

Nick ended his Forecast by mentioning Hurricane DORIAN, on the other side of the Atlantic. Latest Model runs now take this feature up the Eastern side of the U.S.A. and away from Florida. As it curves out into the Atlantic, and the remnants of this feature look to get caught up in the Jet Stream and by Monday next Week, could be close to the U.K. The exact position and likely impacts on the U.K., are a long way off in determining though!!

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Nick Miller.

It still looks to be a very pleasant spell of Weather then for our Region, as we head through the first Week of September.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: 

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Got back to Prague just in time for the heat breaking down, as the cold front that moved across the UK yesterday heads this way. Constant thunder from this discrete cell, more storms building on the western horizon. Hot and sunny, otherwise, 29C. Lovely 😊 

A006705F-B8E0-4F88-A981-1B97888823CC.jpeg

7E282733-BBF7-41C3-8DC4-85E3BE2B69A8.jpeg

66102A89-2795-43C5-B1A2-BA39E8F61759.jpeg

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Had a walk up to the local shops before Lunch.

Another glorious day out there, for the first one of Meteorological Autumn. Just a hint of coolness on the skin but still pleasantly warm enough, in the Sun. Some broken cumulus floating about and imo, far more comfortable than last Sunday's excessive heat. Today could well be some 13c cooler than a Week ago. 

Regards,

Tom. :hi: 

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5 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Got back to Prague just in time for the heat breaking down, as the cold front that moved across the UK yesterday heads this way. Constant thunder from this discrete cell, more storms building on the western horizon. Hot and sunny, otherwise, 29C. Lovely 😊 

(SNIPPED)

Fantastic photos stainesbloke. 👍

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1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Fantastic photos stainesbloke. 👍

Thank you, very kind 😊 It’s been an exciting afternoon, weather wise in Prague. Had about 5 storms pass over or close by with some dramatic skies

24880EB4-49EC-4417-B6D5-B6DA073CF151.jpeg

D60B05AE-1F02-4FD8-BA9B-332DC1ABB2B5.jpeg

5F41A6C9-A6DF-42BC-BCC9-44D6F9AB23C8.jpeg

6581F7BA-056F-4505-80AF-7416F8485B8D.jpeg

A4D9674E-717D-4ACC-AA47-0FE84E3C2F2F.jpeg

18C6EFCE-F054-4239-B83E-5911E3CC826A.jpeg

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Prague has some fantastic storms, some of the structure is amazing, was lucky enough to witness 3 storms when I went to prague for 4 days on a stag do, oddly enough, everything else is still vague ha ha ha

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8 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Prague has some fantastic storms, some of the structure is amazing, was lucky enough to witness 3 storms when I went to prague for 4 days on a stag do, oddly enough, everything else is still vague ha ha ha

Haha, I bet 🤣 You were lucky to see so many storms. The skies here are often so interesting, there’s definitely a lot less low level muck so cloud structures can be seen more clearly. I’m away a lot but this summer, I’m on 21 days of thunder! Have missed a fair few storms, too.

Edited by stainesbloke

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Have accompanied my Wife Colette to her place of work this Morning, a Residential Care Home in Chislehurst. Think she's planning to leave me there!! :shok: :oldgrin:

About to write an analysis of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, this broadcast with Nick Miller. For those that don't want to read my commentary, below is a BBC link to the Forecast:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49535832

Nick began his Forecast by stating that this time last Week, we were saying goodbye to that hot, Continental air. This Week will see an Atlantic influence, dominate. Occasional dips in the Jet Stream will bring Low Pressure systems and associated Fronts, into the U.K. Our Region will be least affected, by these features, although we will see rain at some point, during the Week.

Today, will remain dry for the S.E.,with sunny spells and Max.Temps reaching 22c, for the London area. Although Fronts will be crossing the U.K. on Tuesday, our Region will remain dry with Max.Temps., up a touch for the London area, at 23c/24c. Tuesday will likely be the warmest Day of the Week, for the S.E.

On Wednesday a Cold Front will track across the S.E., bringing some welcome rain for gardens in the Region. After the early rain and passage of the Front, cooler, fresher air will "invade" our area, from the N.W. Max.Temps will be down to 20c, for the London area. A chilly start for the S.E. on Thursday but it will remain dry with Max.Temps., being on the cool side, at 19c, for London.  

On Friday, another Cold Front tracks S.E. towards our Region, bringing some fragmenting rain with it. Max.Temps., for the London area, around 20c.

Nick then made reference to Hurricane DORIAN, there are still some big question marks over the behaviour of this feature. After H.D. moves W., it will then turn to the N. By next Weekend the remnants of this feature will accelerate across the Atlantic, as it's swept up by the Jet Stream, ending up near Iceland.

Nick ended his Forecast by stating that, if this did occur, Weather impacts for the U.K. would be negligible compared to the awful events occurring over the Bahamas, at the moment.

 That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Nick Miller.

Still a reasonable spell of Weather up and coming for our Region then, if not quite as settled and warm as expected, a few days ago.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

 

 

 

Edited by TomSE12

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Morning all,

Up early again.

Consecutive Posts, where is everybody?? :cc_confused:

Managed to escape from the Care Home, sorry Colette.  :yahoo: :oldgrin:

Below is a  link to MeteoGroup's extended Forecast, for those who don't wish to read my analysis for our Region. Chris Fawkes presenting: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49558323

Chris began his Forecast by mentioning Hurricane DORIAN, the second strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever recorded. Only Hurricane Alan, in 1980, being stronger. After giving the Island of Grand Bahama a battering on Monday, H.D. is now starting to weaken.

Chris then went on to show the following caption, for the U.K. - NEXT FEW DAYS - Rain at times. Breezy. Temps, at or below average.

Today sees a bit of early Morning brightness for the S.E. but tending to cloud over. Staying dry and fairly bright though. a Max.Temp. for London of  around 22c.  In the overnight period, a Cold Front will track S.E., across our Region, taking with it some rain. A wet start to Wednesday then for the S.E., with cooler, fresher air following from the W., perhaps with an odd shower. Max. Temps. for London down quite noticeably to 17c

On Thursday, our Region looks to stay dry under a weak Ridge of High Pressure, this H.P. situated close to the Azores. Some cloud around with a Max. Temp. for London, around 18c. Another Cold Front tracks S.E. across our Region on Friday, so another Day of "see-sawing" temperatures. Rain associated with the Front, pushing through our area with a Max. Temp. , on the cool side at 17c for London. 

Quite a chilly start for the S.E. on Saturday. As we'll sit closest to High Pressure, the best of the Weather for our Region, with some sunshine and Max. Temps  back up to around 20c, for the London area.

At the end of his Forecast, Chris returned to Hurricane DORIAN and the remaining uncertainty, over it's track. Over the Weekend, H.D. then turns into a normal area of Low Pressure and accelerates eastwards across the Atlantic, ending up close to Iceland, in the early part of next Week with a trailing Cold Front, straddled across the U.K.

That's my interpretation of MeteoGroup's extended Forecast for our Region, seen through the eyes of Chris Fawkes.

Some welcome rain around for the S.E. then and perhaps a little on the cool side, at times.

Regards,

Tom.    :hi:

 

 

 

 

 

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I wonder how much rain the cold front coming through early Weds morning will bring us Tom? The BBC forecasts (from Meteogroup) suggesting the possibility of some heavier bursts. Certainly their graphic looks encouraging. But if this morning's GFS model output is correct, most parts of our Region will see only 1 or 2mm - hardly enough to damp the ground. I wonder what my rain gauge will be showing this time tomorrow morning?

1756983769_Rain4Sept.thumb.jpg.91499bfe8184e248527ff68752a3cfbf.jpg1793801198_GFSCumPrecip3-4Sept.thumb.GIF.3f5e8852fed2268ce993c372ff2a0e1c.GIF

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2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

I wonder what my rain gauge will be showing this time tomorrow morning?

Been the story of the last month and a bit in my region @Blessed, we had some sporadic rainfall around mid-month in August but each time never more than 4 or 5mm, the graphics do look encouraging for tomorrow to liven up the parched landscape...I'll guess at around 5mm, not a lot but welcome.

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Been very dry here, no rain not even showers. My 210 litre water butt is nearly empty, and i only water a small area of new lawn. It has been great weather but looking forward to some wet stuff.

Mornings getting cooler now, nights drawing in so here comes autumn. I do love the changing seasons.

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And, not for the first time this summer, a day forecast to be distinctly average has in fact turned-out to be a corker...strong sunshine and 24C! Vitamin D injections on demand?:yahoo:

Plus, for only the second time I can remember (I think the other was 2016?) some buddleias have flowered twice!🦋

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And, not for the first time this summer, a day forecast to be distinctly average has in fact turned-out to be a corker...strong sunshine and 24C!

and not for the first time this summer when somewhat cooler conditions were forecast...on Saturday BBC website had highs of 19c and 20c for Monday/Tuesday here but in reality we've had 21.6c and 23.6c...

How the hell we'll get another substantially cooler that average month at this rate is beyond me, but it will probably come when we least expect it!

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been dry but cloudy and cool here its been quite a cool start to autumn so far all 3days of it !!

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2 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

been dry but cloudy and cool here its been quite a cool start to autumn so far all 3days of it !!

Yes, got back to Heathrow this afternoon and it didn’t feel particularly warm in the cool breeze and under grey skies. 

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The rain band is just clearing here and a better effort than I was expecting (and GFS forecasting yesterday) with nearly 8mm of rain.

08.35 839738065_Radar08.3504Sept.thumb.jpg.74cabd6303bc7b09ab8ea0f022eb59e9.jpg

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6 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

The rain band is just clearing here and a better effort than I was expecting (and GFS forecasting yesterday) with nearly 8mm of rain.

08.35 839738065_Radar08.3504Sept.thumb.jpg.74cabd6303bc7b09ab8ea0f022eb59e9.jpg

Rather disappointing here, Malcolm - around 4mm.

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An interesting chart produced by Weatherquest showing the percentage chance of anticyclonic weather in the UK. February and June stand out from the pack and - make a note in the diary - the best day for holding a bbq is the likely to be the 16th June. :oldlaugh:

772880947_AnticyclonicChancesUK.thumb.jpg.b8e1d853751027a3b4d55dc3db7493d8.jpg

This graphic highlights periods of the year where anticyclonic conditions (i.e. high pressure) tends to be more prevalent, on average, based on Lamb Weather Types calculated by the Climatic Research Unit at UEA.
Source: Weatherquest. Twitter @danholley_

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Not a bad day here with average temperatures and a fair amount of sunshine, despite the strong and cool wind.

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Morning all,

You'll be pleased to hear, that I won't be able to post up analysis of MeteoGroup's extended Forecasts, any longer. In the last couple of Weeks I've started to develop a rather painful Arthritic condition, in my right hand (my typing hand). This condition is made worse by prolonged typing!! :oldangry: So, in future I will just post up a link to the Forecast. Below is a link to this Morning's extended Forecast, with Chris Fawkes:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/49584410

Looks like we'll escape much in the way of Weather problems from the remnants of Hurricane DORIAN.

But Tropical Storm GABRIELLE, could be another matter. Watch this space.

Still looking to be reasonable Weather for my 64th Birthday on Sunday, under a Ridge of High Pressure. Not that it matters too much, as I'll be enjoying a celebratory meal with Family members, inside an Italian Restaurant in Bromley, on Sunday Afternoon. :gathering:

Regards,

Tom.   :hi:

Edited by TomSE12

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