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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Odd experience just now in Hythe, it felt very stormy and we could make out what almost looked like a wall cloud.... As it approached the gusts really picked up and the temp dropped, but no storm!

Any ideas why this happened, what formed the gust front?

Yep we had that here, I think it was the french storms out flow, which is what causes the gust front, in front of storms. They were very strong. 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London

Saw this beauty up the golf course earlier...

An hour later I could hear distant rumbles and saw two flashes, alas, an hour has passed since and nothing to report☹️

F10FEE91-B840-4964-80A3-EFD35E49CF09.jpeg

Edited by Arch Stanton
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Posted
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)
  • Location: Surbiton, Surrey (home), Uxbridge, Middx (work)

Regular lightning to the north of here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Merstham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Summer sunshine
  • Location: Merstham, Surrey

Some lighting action just starting up towards the Reigate/J8 area 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

Come on storms, the heat and energy is there just need a bit of convergence or something to kick one off anywhere!!

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
1 minute ago, Nath said:

Come on storms, the heat and energy is there just need a bit of convergence or something to kick one off anywhere!!

It’s trying to kick of here West London lovely lighting 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

Slightly too far away for me to even see distant flashes. Looks fierce on the NW radar  That storm when up in 10 mins, theres so much energy tonight we all deserve a storm!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

My mum is reporting lightning and thunder (not overhead though) in Ashford, Middlesex 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

I know you shouldn't take the BBC weather graphics as gospel but tomorrow and Thursday showed little in the way of convective activity to the east of London and towards East Anglia...I'll be amazed but not surprised if out towards my location we experience little in the way of lightning and thunder but as we know with such conditions difficult to pinpoint. 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Bodle street e.sussex 60m asl/ Stalham, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes!
  • Location: Bodle street e.sussex 60m asl/ Stalham, Norfolk
8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I know you shouldn't take the BBC weather graphics as gospel but tomorrow and Thursday showed little in the way of convective activity to the east of London and towards East Anglia...I'll be amazed but not surprised if out towards my location we experience little in the way of lightning and thunder but as we know with such conditions difficult to pinpoint. 

Agree, GFS has showers all around but missing us completely

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Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL

The storms keep dying South of here. What is stopping them going bang?

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Posted
  • Location: Barnet, North London
  • Location: Barnet, North London
11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I know you shouldn't take the BBC weather graphics as gospel but tomorrow and Thursday showed little in the way of convective activity to the east of London and towards East Anglia...I'll be amazed but not surprised if out towards my location we experience little in the way of lightning and thunder but as we know with such conditions difficult to pinpoint. 

GFS this evening is also disappointing. Big downgrade for Thursday. Possibly something tomorrow evening. but if you're north of the Thames it doesn't look great.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Tomorrow looks like another day of pulse type storms breaking out during the mid to late afternoon. Just a hunch that the morning may very well be sunnier than the last couple of days for most, so potentially 33/34C could be more widespread across the region away from the coasts. Going for 35C to be reached or exceeded towards NW London. It does look like there will be more action tomorrow night with widespread thunderstorms moving northwards out of France, the trouble is that the models have definitely slowed the progression of these down and potentially the northern limit of their journey.

GFS 18z for tomorrow - Add a degree or so onto these but in this instance i prefer the slightly smoothed approach.

24-582UK.GIF?11-18

Thursday looks a real mess to forecast, slight differences in the orientation of the low could have drastically different outcomes in surface conditions. The airmass overhead will still be warm enough for 30-32C to be reached in sunnier spells. However the extent of the rain and whether the wind backs north easterly or not will have big impacts on those temperatures.

The thunderstorm risk continues into Friday, the weekend however looks drier and still very warm (All days have the risk of low cloud in north and eastern parts of the region, but again the surface flow may or may not favour the presence of this cloud.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

Impressive 31.5C at 8pm tonight................Currently 26.1C Outside..........29.8C inside

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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Based on the year so far, this heat will probably end with some light rain for the region. The lack of widespread storms in the SE has been just as astonishing as the heat IMO. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

I'm going completely bonkers now lol, no storms anywhere near, yet when I sit outside to cool down a bit, I keep hearing rumbles. It's got to be in my head. 

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Posted
  • Location: greenhithe, kent (nr bluewater) 51.45216 n 0.25966 e
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter hot in summer
  • Location: greenhithe, kent (nr bluewater) 51.45216 n 0.25966 e
48 minutes ago, andymcpool said:

temps are showing 30c indoors and 22 c outdoors with humidty 31.3% and pressure 1016.28 here in greenhithe

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm going completely bonkers now lol, no storms anywhere near, yet when I sit outside to cool down a bit, I keep hearing rumbles. It's got to be in my head. 

It’s rather like Jean de Florette in the eponymous film. I’m with you. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl

Day 4 of 30C plus heat. Monday 10 August, Max 34.6 @ 15:14. 
Day 5: 11 August, started the day with 91% humidity at 07:30 followed by max temp of 33C @ 15:14, and again at 18:30. Currently 27C, Wind 1mph, humidity 62% Somehow it feels worse than last night but maybe that’s the sleep deprivation altering reality...

Lightening reflecting clouds due west an hour ago, guessing a long way away. West in straight line from village not a lot until north Milton Keynes 30-32 miles away. Timing fits with radar activity around MK. 

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