South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[jamesgold]

Amazingly managed to just avoid the showers all yesterday and today, 5 miles west and I’d have been soaked by now

[Frostbite1980]

Oh look the showers and storms forecast for Thursday are going to miss Kent according to the latest met video forecast even though a warning is out lol quel surprise

[Harry's House]

Here in Pagham right by the coast, there was sea fog today, but in northly directions a lot of CB's in the distance. What a contrast!

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well, what can I say, Mark: almost unbroken, very warm sunshine and a barely cooling sea-breeze...? But I was watching the convergence zone (the one that's close to @chrisbell-nottheweatherman?) receding slowly away into the dark blue yonder...!

Well the shower/s that we’re building quite quickly just dissipated around me and only remarkably delivered some light rain . Now we have almost clear blue skies and a distant shower can be seen , I really thought a storm was coming through here but it was not to be today , So far at least .

[moogyboobles]

Getting quite jealous looking at the action on the radar, every drop of rain has just passed SWF by! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Lots of big towering clouds around here at the moment, however they may die off before reaching here. Reached 25c this afternoon.

[Dami]

had some hail, heavy rain and thunder. very happy.

Not so happy the storm built as it went away and i was wrong i wouldn't see anything.

But was nice listening to it.

[Cableguy]

Here's hoping for a bit more of a chance down here tomorrow was close but no cigar today,  good to see people further North getting some good storms over the past two days, is there more of a cap in place for the majority of our region as things seem limited and then go pop further North West?

Edited June 16, 2020 by Cableguy

[Norfolk Sheep]

You can tell the weather in this region is sleep inducing, only 2 pages added in days!

[Blessed Weather]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Well, what can I say, Mark: almost unbroken, very warm sunshine and a barely cooling sea-breeze...? But I was watching the convergence zone (the one that's close to @chrisbell-nottheweatherman?) receding slowly away into the dark blue yonder...!

Good spot with the convergence zone Pete. Look at the radar and then look at the Arpege mean wind flow forecast for late afternoon - a NE'ly curling south meets a southerly flow going north - and up it all goes. Makes it clear why the storms formed where they did.

[Cableguy]

The above post answers my question ref convergence zone thank you.

[andymcpool]

Not much rain today in sw11 but some nice cloudscapes!

[thunderpants]

The heavens have just opened here, good lord.

[thunderpants]

Rinse and repeat for some today, here at the moment it's partly cloudy and calm after yersterday evening's downpoor with humidity at 68% and a temp of 12.4c.

[lottiekent]

Morning 

MO says a night of 18c here today, however it is already 17.8c so think that might not be quite right!

Forecast also shows heavy rain here from midnight but the warning doesn’t start until midday tomorrow...something tells me they don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow apart from there might be heavy rain somewhere!

[Blazerblue]

Not in the zones again today ️ it’s dull and humid this morning, just a little storm would be nice, not asking for non stop torrential rain, just a few lightening strikes, to break up the day.

[Blessed Weather]

23 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Morning 

MO says a night of 18c here today, however it is already 17.8c so think that might not be quite right!

Forecast also shows heavy rain here from midnight but the warning doesn’t start until midday tomorrow...something tells me they don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow apart from there might be heavy rain somewhere!

Good morning Lottie. I thought I'd take a look at what happens tomorrow (Thurs) and the developing weather set-up does help explain the forecasts. In a nutshell it's looking like a much better chance of some wider rainfall for our Region - although ironically not for your location from what I can see.

So starting with a look at the Met Office Fax charts for midnight tonight and midday tomorrow shows that an occluded front has entered from the right, moving in a westerly direction off the North Sea to impact us. By midday as that trundles off in a NW'ly direction a trough has developed behind which kicks off some very heavy showers.

Midnight tonight  Midday Thurs

And here's how the Arome high res model forecasts the rainfall associated with the front moving in around midnight and by morning impacting a large part of the Region. By 15.00 tomorrow the front is to our north but the heavy showers associated with the trough are showing from the Thames Estuary across to Wales with hopefully some storm activity thrown in. The message for most of us is to take in the garden seat cushions tonight or they'll get soggy! But for the SE corner and thus your location down in Folkestone, it seems you miss all the action.

00.00  03.00

06.00  12.00

[Lauren]

Super humid this morning and no storms to show for it

[lottiekent]

43 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Good morning Lottie. I thought I'd take a look at what happens tomorrow (Thurs) and the developing weather set-up does help explain the forecasts. In a nutshell it's looking like a much better chance of some wider rainfall for our Region - although ironically not for your location from what I can see.

So starting with a look at the Met Office Fax charts for midnight tonight and midday tomorrow shows that an occluded front has entered from the right, moving in a westerly direction off the North Sea to impact us. By midday as that trundles off in a NW'ly direction a trough has developed behind which kicks off some very heavy showers.

Midnight tonight  Midday Thurs

And here's how the Arome high res model forecasts the rainfall associated with the front moving in around midnight and by morning impacting a large part of the Region. By 15.00 tomorrow the front is to our north but the heavy showers associated with the trough are showing from the Thames Estuary across to Wales with hopefully some storm activity thrown in. The message for most of us is to take in the garden seat cushions tonight or they'll get soggy! But for the SE corner and thus your location down in Folkestone, it seems you miss all the action.

00.00  03.00

06.00  12.00

That sounds about right!

We are lucky here at times though; we have had some nice snow streamers in the past that only affected a slim coastal region from Deal down to New Romney way. Then in the summer we will often get a warmer pool of air that just envelops us coming off the continent, which in turn allows us to be clipped by storms moving up from France.

So I’m happy for others to have their turn as I know we’ll get something magnificent eventually.

[Methuselah]

A partly cloudy, hazy and muggy start to the day, here: temperature is already at 20C, so the current warm spell has made it to 5 days!

But, I'll need to go on Netflix to find any thunder!

[Norfolk Sheep]

18 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A partly cloudy, hazy and muggy start to the day, here: temperature is already at 20C, so the current warm spell has made it to 5 days!

But, I'll need to go on Netflix to find any thunder!

I'm that desperate I keep watching Twister and Into The Storm....

I really REALLY hate E'ly onshore winds. 

[magicpatch]

Hi all,
Is there any idea when this humidity could drop? I might have misheard but I'm sure the BBC local weather seemed to suggest we will pick up a stronger westerly breeze by Friday and we should lose the humidity? 

[lottiekent]

Storm popped up out of nowhere between Ashford and Maidstone and also another one over Calais which seems to be on its way towards me. Shame I’m stuck at my desk (kitchen table) until 4pm! 

[thunderpants]

Looks like things are getting going a bit earlier today.

[alexisj9]

I can see towers to my south, is that actually gonnaake it over this time.