South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[fatyido]

A weather warning! Seriously?

up to 1cm possible, could cause travel disruption!! Do me a favour....lauaghable

[SMU]

Throughout the morning the Northern extent of the lows track is gradually being muted which net means the areas where the transition sets up is further south over London / Kent / Surrey

If the trend continues the yellow warning should extend further south with it !

At this stage based on all models im expecting mostly snow here

[snowray]

23 minutes ago, fatyido said:

A weather warning! Seriously?

up to 1cm possible, could cause travel disruption!! Do me a favour....lauaghable

Interesting that the met office site has just changed its graphics and is showing snow north of London and sleet not just around London but also way south of London too. So most of us could well see falling snow/sleet but it's most likely to settle on higher ground, mainly north of the M4, but also some places further south might see a temporary covering here and there, possibly even around London and to the south above 100m or so. Might be a few surprises tomorrow morning, fingers crossed.

Latest 06z fax shows the low slightly further south again.

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Throughout the morning the Northern extent of the lows track is gradually being muted which net means the areas where the transition sets up is further south over London / Kent / Surrey

If the trend continues the yellow warning should extend further south with it !

At this stage based on all models im expecting mostly snow here

What do you make of the latest fax chart there Steve?

[SMU]

Looks good to me

- Minimal WAA from SW ahead of the low > indicative of a shallow low

- zone of the 0c > -2c isotherm estimated to be well south of London > 0c may even be off the coast

- Reduced Northern extent of PPN shield

- Heaviest of the PPN to the south of London not North...

[IPredictASnowStorm]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Looks good to me

- Minimal WAA from SW ahead of the low > indicative of a shallow low

- zone of the 0c > -2c isotherm estimated to be well south of London > 0c may even be off the coast

- Reduced Northern extent of PPN shield

- Heaviest of the PPN to the south of London not North...

Met office says midlands and just north of m4 is the lowest it will go 

[Seasonal Trim]

It's not happening this far south, regardless of what some might say. M4 North is where it's happening. 

[SMU]

We will see remember there is 18 hours yet

to see track adjustments!

[IPredictASnowStorm]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

We will see remember there is 18 hours yet

to see track adjustments!

Hopefully it does drop lower it has dropped abit lower on gfs charts every run 

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I re call so many similar forecasts throughout  the years to this and it’s always further south than forecasted 24 hours from the event.

[BLS]

Old member back for one question, what are the chances for Kent and MAIDSTONE tomorrow as I have a wedding to travel to and don’t want to get stuck

[snowking]

Whilst the GFS has indeed moved further South on the 6z, generally high resolution modelling has been fairly stable now for the past few runs. Taking the Euro4 as an example, we can see that it has the snow line (certainly in terms of accumulation) pretty much in line with the warnings issued this morning

That was actually significantly toned down when compared with the 0z run:

You might argue if you look really closely that the Southern-most boundary of snowfall has shifted south about 10-15 miles but that is being generous.

That said, I have seen many examples over the years of the reality of the situation being significantly further south than modelled - usually NWP has overestimated the depth of the low and so naturally the system tracks further south. Of course it's also worth bearing in mind that the weaker the LP is, the less intense any associated precipitation is likely to be with it, and I suspect evaporative cooling will be a big factor in where any snow falls (along with elevation of course).

Edited February 26, 2020 by snowking

[Uxbridge90]

Looks exciting for those north of London, another miserable and wet morning elsewhere unfortunately. 

[Lampostwatcher]

To think since November myself personally I've checked onto this forum atleast twice a day normally first thing in the morning and then around 12 time 

To finally have a chance of some snowfall falling and settling for my my 7 year old boy to see is mad really 

 

[snowray]

I don't think its so much about it being too far south or north any more, more to do with the higher temps around greater London that might be the problem, urban heat in other words.

[snowray]

Further south again on ICON 12z and and weaker LP.

Edited February 26, 2020 by snowray

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

And the big question, will any hill in our Region be able to manage some scenes like that early tomorrow? I have to say, with a rain-turning-to-snow event (so ground wet) and with temps around +2C, I think settling snow might be a big ask. Here's the forecasts for 08.00 tomorrow morning from Hirlam, NMM and Arpege. Spot the M4 corridor.

 

for the wrf nmm 2km which is my go to model and usually does a good job with precip / types you can zoom into the different regions of the UK for that extra bit of detail (for your region click on sud) but having a look through the short range models the main issue to me (as has been the case up here recently) is the dew points which look to be too high at around 2/3 C, some short range models indicate snow chances in East Anglia and the wrf nmm gives a chance for @Steve Murr and parts of Kent, possibly evaporative cooling?  

[snowray]

ICON 12z show settling snow in the same places north of the M4.

[SMU]

25 minutes ago, snowray said:

ICON 12z show settling snow in the same places north of the M4.

Compare that with the same timestamp from 06z & note how its all coming SE

[Dami]

slowly but surely, my Met 0 forecast is turning to sleet. 

get in, son.

 

[stainesbloke]

Nice little hail shower here a while ago, looked a bit like snow Feeling chillier now and that vile wind is back

[Bogman]

7 minutes ago, Dami said:

slowly but surely, my Met 0 forecast is turning to sleet. 

get in, son.

 

Snap.

 

Had heavy snow earlier.

 

lolz.

[Dami]

1 minute ago, Bogman said:

Snap.

 

Had heavy snow earlier.

 

lolz.

be rain soon and drizzle at that.

splendid 

[SMU]

GFS another 40-50 Miles south on 12z

0C isotherm stays over IOW now > 00z had it up at London !

Increasing chances for the SE region to see more in the way if snow

heading off home soon to begin the countdown !

[Chertseystreamer79]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS another 40-50 Miles south on 12z

0C isotherm stays over IOW now > 00z had it up at London !

Increasing chances for the SE region to see more in the way if snow

heading off home soon to begin the countdown !

Loving the optimism here steve....at what is our first true go at some white transient something or other...!! I too am excited none the less....even in lowly chertsey 6m asl! Lol!

 

Bring it south!

[LightningLover]

I’m fairly certain we just had some light flurries in Hastings!!