South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[Emz by the Thames]

7 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I’m new to Alexa ... what other things can she do ? 

Windy weekend for us all ? As for snow ️ think it’s a frost fest winter only

My kitchen timer has become obsolete since I got an Alexa, the fact that she can keep two timers running at the same time helps. 

My nieces just ask her things like 'Alexa - make kitten noises' and 'Alexa - sing in autotune'.

'Alexa - burglar deterrent' makes background noises to make it sould like someone is in the house when you're out.

 

[UxbridgeSnow]

I suspect that the flight leaving Heathrow will be cancelled in the morning.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Quote - John Stevens:

"Afternoon @TomSE12....thank you for updating the “Odds”...I noticed that your “runners and riders’ are based on your original list....my now date is the 29th Feb, not March, which you had changed"

My apologies John.

I had changed it on my original sheet but not on my Master Copy, which I copy and paste from.

This is how your Entry, should have looked:

John Stevens                29th  FEB               14/1                               25/1

It's a good thing that I'm only a "Virtual" Bookmaker, and not an "actual" one.

Think I would soon go bust, laying 200/1 about a 25/1 chance!!

Regards,

Tom.   

[Daniel*]

Really extraordinary winds being forecast by ECM across capital 75mph gusts midday Sunday!  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

16 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Really extraordinary winds being forecast by ECM across capital 75mph gusts midday Sunday!  

Yeah they are nuts speeds now.. Would actually be considered one of the strongest storms for a while if those kinds of winds pulled off.. The jet is aglined perfectly as well during the peak of the winds.. This might aid in higher gusts almost anywhere.. 

This storm means business.. 

[seb]

MetO press release calling it the strongest storm since 2013. Just popped up as breaking news on Sky News app.

[Stabilo19]

Crazy to think winds could be 70mph in London on Sunday, but the met office don't have much confidence in that happening it seems - so maybe they know best? 

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Crazy to think winds could be 70mph in London on Sunday, but the met office don't have much confidence in that happening it seems - so maybe they know best? 

40 would be a good anything over is not great for a big city

[moogyboobles]

2 hours ago, Snowflake Queen said:

I’m new to Alexa ... what other things can she do ? 

Windy weekend for us all ? As for snow ️ think it’s a frost fest winter only

I don't know about Alexa but Siri is a bit behind! 

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

40 would be a good anything over is not great for a big city

True that. 

94mph in Central London during the 1987 storm. At 2am thankfully.

Imagine if it had been 2pm!!!

[clark3r]

We’ve really had a battering since early October with wind and rain. 

[yamkin]

Croydon Council have really ramped up their emergency response teams regarding the severe gales on Sunday. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the current Amber Alert is extended further into the SE..............I wonder if the MetO will issue a Red Alert in some parts on Sunday

[tinybill]

bbc  now saying 80 mph  if they keep going up we heading to great storm area  now

 

[yamkin]

45 minutes ago, tinybill said:

bbc  now saying 80 mph  if they keep going up we heading to great storm area  now

 

There's are very strong possibility that the very powerful influx of energy which will pound the weak magnetosphere from the 9th - 12th Feb is going to greatly influence this oncoming storm........It's like pouring petrol on an existing fire!!

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

True that. 

94mph in Central London during the 1987 storm. At 2am thankfully.

Imagine if it had been 2pm!!!

death and destruction during the day

[Donna3397]

I’m slightly worried I live right on the SE coast where there is going to be strong winds and spring tides 

[Jimmyh]

All the Royal Parks to be closed on Sunday – ianVisits – London news and events

WWW.IANVISITS.CO.UK

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If you are planning to visit any of the Royal Parks in London on Sunday - the gates will be locked.

 

Wow have seen this 

[Stabilo19]

2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

All the Royal Parks to be closed on Sunday – ianVisits – London news and events

WWW.IANVISITS.CO.UK

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If you are planning to visit any of the Royal Parks in London on Sunday - the gates will be locked.

 

Wow have seen this 

Wow indeed! They're taking this seriously at least. Right decision.

[Lauren]

I think we're going to see an awful lot of trees down with all the wind and rain. Wouldn't be surprised if this ends up as a red event.

[Hurricane Debby]

Can anyone remind me how strong Storm Angus was back in 2016 ? I think it was Angus....

[snowblind]

Been looking at this for London.

Ensemble probabilty weather forecast | TheWeatherOutlook

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

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Ensemble or probability weather forecasts help to asses confidence levels in the 16 day outlook.

 

The snow row is 17 for Feb 11th, which means 17 of 23 runs are indicating snow on that day. I've been checking it this week and its been as high as 20 and as low as 6. Now this is only 5 days away so this seems like fairly good odds but I expect it will come to nothing as no mention in any forecast of any snow down here. Why is the GFS so bad at forecasting snow it quite often shows snowy charts 5 plus days away that come to nothing? I think someone even posted a chart earlier today of us getting a pasting on the 14th.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay peeps red alerts don't think so.. Even in the 100mph winter storms further north reds are never issued.. 

There is nothing unusual about this storm its a winter storm in the depths of winter.. Who would have guessed it?! 

What is a little diffrent is the size of the wind field associated with the storm and to some degree the strength of the winds over such a large area.. 60mph winds are not uncommon in winter even inland.. 70mph + is a little more of a rare beast but still can and does happen.. 

We are still over 24 hours away from this event and while we are now entering model lock down (what I like to call the final hours where models tend to agree) some details will change.. 

It looks like 70mph maybe achieved somewhere inland but I think you will need some height to get around that speed... 

Let's see what the overnight runs do and make some proper guesses tomorrow 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Surrey

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Okay peeps red alerts don't think so.. Even in the 100mph winter storms further north reds are never issued.. 

There is nothing unusual about this storm its a winter storm in the depths of winter.. Who would have guessed it?! 

What is a little diffrent is the size of the wind field associated with the storm and to some degree the strength of the winds over such a large area.. 60mph winds are not uncommon in winter even inland.. 70mph + is a little more of a rare beast but still can and does happen.. 

We are still over 24 hours away from this event and while we are now entering model lock down (what I like to call the final hours where models tend to agree) some details will change.. 

It looks like 70mph maybe achieved somewhere inland but I think you will need some height to get around that speed... 

Let's see what the overnight runs do and make some proper guesses tomorrow 

 

I’ve been keeping an eye on weather around 23 years and don’t think I’ve ever seen the entire country under a yellow warning for wind..

[LightningLover]

40 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

I’m slightly worried I live right on the SE coast where there is going to be strong winds and spring tides 

It’s going to be very interesting to walk across the seafront...

[Stabilo19]

18 minutes ago, Surrey said:

There is nothing unusual about this storm its a winter storm in the depths of winter.. Who would have guessed it?! 

What is a little diffrent is the size of the wind field associated with the storm and to some degree the strength of the winds over such a large area.. 60mph winds are not uncommon in winter even inland.. 70mph + is a little more of a rare beast but still can and does happen.. 

 

Completely disagree

60mph+ gusts are not common during annual winter storms for London & the SE. Most gusts here reach the upper 40s, perhaps 50s in a few spots. Current forecast is not for a usual storm.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Stabilo19