South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[Badgers01]

8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

GFS sticking with its idea of a significant storm next week and a general period of very windy weather. Could be some good chances for a squall line or two with some impressive convection. Hoping the storm is modelled to be less destructive, it won’t just affect the UK but much of the near continent, too. Though it’s been some time since the region has seen widespread storm force winds.

The GFS has been pointing towards a major wind storm for next week for many days now - sone kudos to the derided GFS if it proves correct !!??

[stainesbloke]

7 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

The GFS has been pointing towards a major wind storm for next week for many days now - sone kudos to the derided GFS if it proves correct !!??

Yes, although the GFS frequently blows up mega low pressure systems from nowhere that disappear a run or two later, it can also be quite accurate once it starts sticking with a solution, which it seems to be doing now. One to watch. I remember Francis Wilson used to call such systems ‘big blows’ We used to get them more often. There’d be a big, deep low to the N of Scotland, giving them some wild weather. Then a secondary low would develop and race across the Midlands, giving S England and Wales a battering. 

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, although the GFS frequently blows up mega low pressure systems from nowhere that disappear a run or two later, it can also be quite accurate once it starts sticking with a solution, which it seems to be doing now. One to watch. I remember Francis Wilson used to call such systems ‘big blows’ We used to get them more often. There’d be a big, deep low to the N of Scotland, giving them some wild weather. Then a secondary low would develop and race across the Midlands, giving S England and Wales a battering. 

Yes he was a great weatherman Francis Wilson - I think he is no longer with us ..? 

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Yes he was a great weatherman Francis Wilson - I think he is no longer with us ..? 

One of my favourites, too! Always a bit cheeky and easy on the eye, too He’s still very much alive, apparently

[Dami]

Just walked bubs back from dance class. It is raining a bit and quite blowy but mild. 

It's raining! 

[Hurricane Debby]

What's the best thread to follow for the upcoming stormy weather this weekend and onwards... Can't deny I'm looking forward to a bit of excitement....

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Debby said:

What's the best thread to follow for the upcoming stormy weather this weekend and onwards... Can't deny I'm looking forward to a bit of excitement....

Perhaps the North Atlantic Storms thread? Or just the general severe weather one. I have to admit, this stormy spell will certainly break up the monotony a bit... 

[Hurricane Debby]

2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Perhaps the North Atlantic Storms thread? Or just the general severe weather one. I have to admit, this stormy spell will certainly break up the monotony a bit... 

Thanks LightningLover and couldn't agree more. Thing is, the storms I get excited about don't manifest, and those I don't think about, and usually un-named storms, turn out to be the best ! 

[Wimbledon88]

3 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

One of my favourites, too! Always a bit cheeky and easy on the eye, too He’s still very much alive, apparently

Yes, 70 now but still going strong. 

One of the best forecasts ever. 

And very accurate too.  

[Reefseeker]

5 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

One of my favourites, too! Always a bit cheeky and easy on the eye, too He’s still very much alive, apparently

I met him once - he was on the short side with loads of dark foundation on his face for when he was on camera. But yes, definitely a sense of humour underlying those forecasts. 

Not really fancying an overblown storm system. Our fences have already gone down twice in the past 6 weeks with some tottering on their last legs now. The dog gets out without them so we're highly motivated to keep them standing! 

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Yes, 70 now but still going strong. 

One of the best forecasts ever. 

And very accurate too.  

I remember that forecast That was a classic snowy easterly spell, will never forget it. I was at 6th form college at the time, still doing a paper round every morning. It was -10°C that morning, on the top deck of the bus to college I remember ice crystals on the inside of the windows and some falling from the ceiling, so weird but fun. After the heavy snow started to fall, the college sent everyone home around lunchtime. It was the only time that the bus home was on time to the minute, despite the roads being in a shocking state. Think the maximum temperature I recorded that day was -5°C and it stayed below freezing for a week, with further snow. Then, it completely melted suddenly one night as much milder air moved in. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by stainesbloke

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Reefseeker said:

I met him once - he was on the short side with loads of dark foundation on his face for when he was on camera. But yes, definitely a sense of humour underlying those forecasts. 

Not really fancying an overblown storm system. Our fences have already gone down twice in the past 6 weeks with some tottering on their last legs now. The dog gets out without them so we're highly motivated to keep them standing! 

How cool that you met him! I always wanted to, he seemed like he’d be a good laugh. Agree with you about the possible storm. I do enjoy a dramatic squall line or thunderstorm winds but hours of 100mph winds are too much and cause way to much damage! Hopefully you can keep your fences secure

Central Europe has had a stormy day today with 16,000 without power in the Czech Republic and more in Austria. Winds were gusting over 70mph in Vienna airport earlier, very unusual. 

Edited February 4, 2020 by stainesbloke

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Gusty wind today. There was a 35mph gust here at 11.30 and at Langdon Bay in Kent a 42mph gust at 13.00. But these figures might look positively tame if the forecasts for next week verify, starting this coming Sunday and with little let-up all week. The mid-week (12th) storm looking particularly nasty for our Region if the deep low pressure materialises and tracks as suggested by GFS in its output over the last couple of days. One to watch.

Weds 12th:

Potentially nasty with gusts of 70mph and over it seems.

[LightningLover]

Just imagine if this verifies... Ludicrous chart!

 

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by LightningLover

[Donna3397]

Just had to upload this little beauty 54% of snow. I will take that. Here’s hoping that 54% gets a chance. It’s nice just to see we might even have a tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny chance 

[Badgers01]

I am glad my talk of Mr Wilson’s demise was premature ! 

[Zak M]

Beautiful morning today!

    

Edited February 5, 2020 by Zak M

[stainesbloke]

GFS appears to have dropped the idea of a destructive low for next week, will still be a windy week with some rain and showers. Then, the Euro High reasserts itself over C Europe, leading to mild and damp conditions for the UK/NW Europe ?

Edited February 5, 2020 by stainesbloke

[Emz by the Thames]

Foggy here this morning, it's rather pretty. I'm enjoying the stillness before the windy weather ahead.

 

My modular science teacher had a massive crush on Francis Wilson, so when she got her hands on a weather documentary for schools...we ended up watching it three times in one school year!! Poor teacher ended up with the nicname 'Mrs Wilson'. This appears to be that documentary: 

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

GFS appears to have dropped the idea of a destructive low for next week, will still be a windy week with some rain and showers. Then, the Euro High reasserts itself over C Europe, leading to mild and damp conditions for the UK/NW Europe ?

No surprise there...the dartboard low of the last few days is nowhere near as deep and less well formed which GFS regularly does, agree heights look to strengthen in approx 10 days time over the continent and we're back where we were last year with mild/warm days but probably sunnier and possibly chilly nights (i'd take that as an alternative as there is no chance in hell this winter of getting anything remotely cold).

Edited February 5, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[stainesbloke]

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

No surprise there...the dartboard low of the last few days is nowhere near as deep and less well formed which GFS regularly does, agree heights look to strengthen in approx 10 days time over the continent and we're back where we were last year with mild/warm days and possibly chilly nights (not bad considering no chance in hell this winter of getting anything remotely cold).

I’m keeping a closer eye on the output as GFS did keep the theme of a major secondary low next week for quite a few runs. It may well come back? Will be a windy spell, nonetheless. Not impressed with the Euro High coming back, C Europe needs a fair amount of rain before summer and most of us could do with some weather excitement!  

[Tom Quintavalle]

1 hour ago, Team Squirrel said:

Foggy here this morning, it's rather pretty. I'm enjoying the stillness before the windy weather ahead.

 

My modular science teacher had a massive crush on Francis Wilson, so when she got her hands on a weather documentary for schools...we ended up watching it three times in one school year!! Poor teacher ended up with the nicname 'Mrs Wilson'. This appears to be that documentary: 

 

 

Yes, really loved Francis Wilson's Forecasting with talk of his fluffy bits. It may well have been him that came up with the term of "Streamer", for a train of Showers, be it Rain or Snow.

Hope Mods don't mind but here is that hilarious Rory Bremner parody of Francis:

 

Regards,

Tom.   

[laddie]

Early frost but now lovely under the ever strengthening sun, one of the best days so far this year

[LightningLover]

Met office automated forecast is already going for 66mph wind gusts in Bexhill!! That often gets slightly higher near the time, especially when the hourly intervals begin. This could be very interesting indeed! A day for the seafront methinks. Also, it’s a super moon this weekend, apparently... Aptly known as the ‘storm moon’. All the signs are aligning!

Edited February 5, 2020 by LightningLover

[Beet]

There was some very nice, thick fog this morning. One of the very few pleasing winter mornings I've woken up to so far this winter.