South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards

[Wimbledon88]

Got to be one of the most depressing met office further outlooks ever!!!! 

[PiscesStar]

18 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Got to be one of the most depressing met office further outlooks ever!!!! 

Yes it's an absolute crapper isn't it hate it boring boring boring 

[Badgers01]

The long autumn slowly transitions into early spring here in Surrey - at least this date last year we had some snow on the ground !

[Freeze]

31 January 2019 

[Snow Queen one]

I have both my downstairs doors open today was cleaning the windows and spotted this little guy on one of them.  Should it be out in Feb?  Is it a May fly?

[TROY]

After yesterdays smashing day we have a return of cloudy skies, the overnight rain has cleared, so hopefully some sun before dark. Sunset today 4.51. Nearly at the spring 5.00 deadline. Temps are a barmy 9C. 48F. In old money.

Looking forward to getting some work done in the greenhouse this week. So hopefully we might get some high pressure. Fingers crossed for that sun too come back out.

[Bogman]

Daffs coming out.

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Snow Queen one said:

I have both my downstairs doors open today was cleaning the windows and spotted this little guy on one of them.  Should it be out in Feb?  Is it a May fly?

I was out in the garden a little earlier and noticed a large bee on the washing on the rotary line. I don't recall seeing one before in early February ( a bee that is- not a rotary line) Is it unusual? Also most of my plants are showing signs of life with buds and bulbs about to come out.

[moogyboobles]

6 minutes ago, claret047 said:

I was out in the garden a little earlier and noticed a large bee on the washing on the rotary line. I don't recall seeing one before in early February ( a bee that is- not a rotary line) Is it unusual? Also most of my plants are showing signs of life with buds and bulbs about to come out.

There have been daisies in my lawn for the last couple of weeks already! 

[Emz by the Thames]

It's Candlemas today, I found this out on a walk today and got chatting to someone who still had their xmas decorations up.

Anyway... on Twitter  I found this:

"If Candlemas Day be mild and gay, Go saddle your horses and buy them hay

But if Candlemas Day be stormy and black, It carries the winter away on its back".

[Froze were the Days]

13.3c today...but it seems like it's becoming a regular occurrence in February now days, daffs and crocuses are out and a few roses! saw a few big bumble bees fly past as well.

[Darkcloud]

Truly bizarre....February and we didn't need to light the fire or have the heating on tonight!!!

I don't like it!!!

[Tom Quintavalle]

As was to be expected, sadly we lost Ms BASSO, as KATRINE faced her own Kexit Day on Friday, after her bold prediction, of the 31st January.

  NETWEATHER S.E.REGION SETTLING SNOW CUP

Katrine Basso                  31st  JAN                           50/1 X

But you may not feel lonely for long, Katrine!! The dire Model output continues.

Next on the Model's Radar is TIMBO (10th FEB). But at the moment, "Settling Snow" is unlikely in the S.E.

Timbo                                10th FEB                           10/1

Even if TIMBO is correct with his prediction , he may struggle to claim the extra Bonus if the GFS/ECM 12z Run, is correct in it's predictions of sending a "Weather Bomb" our way, on 10th Feb:

   

TIMBO, may well be blown into the N.Sea from Lowestoft, in trying to record any unlikely Snowfall, in his own location.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited February 3, 2020 by TomSE12

[Tom Quintavalle]

@snowray

Hi Ray,

With still nothing remotely Wintry showing in those 00z Model Runs, that have played their hand so far.

How about a supplementary "Tie-Break" question?

With Forecast Models still predicting a "Monster" Icelandic Low, with the Atlantic powering up, even further for TIMBO Day (Mon.10th Feb). I suggest we predict the Daily Mail Headline, by this coming Saturday.

I'll have first stab:

PEST FROM THE WEST TO BATTER BRITAIN WITH 100 MPH WINDS.

This will probably be served up by, Claudia Aoroha, the new Nathan Rao!! 

Regards,

Tom.    

 

[tinybill]

looks like there very wild  weather on the way  if the gfs  is right could get very messy later  in the week!!!

[Froze were the Days]

4 hours ago, tinybill said:

if the gfs  is right could get very messy later  in the week!!!

Vast majority of the time the GFS isn't right though and always over does the strength of winds...but a windy spell does look on the way.

[laddie]

Never mind the upcoming storms I'm just glad my area is back to normal rainfall over the last couple of weeks after day after day of virtually thundery downpours since October

[Emz by the Thames]

Rare to see a uk-wide weather warning but here we are. Saturday night from 6pm, all of Sunday - wind. 

[Blessed Weather]

Gusty wind today. There was a 35mph gust here at 11.30 and at Langdon Bay in Kent a 42mph gust at 13.00. But these figures might look positively tame if the forecasts for next week verify, starting this coming Sunday and with little let-up all week. The mid-week (12th) storm looking particularly nasty for our Region if the deep low pressure materialises and tracks as suggested by GFS in its output over the last couple of days. One to watch.

Weds 12th:

[Dami]

gah i hate wind storms. 

[snowray]

9 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

@snowray

Hi Ray,

With still nothing remotely Wintry showing in those 00z Model Runs, that have played their hand so far.

How about a supplementary "Tie-Break" question?

With Forecast Models still predicting a "Monster" Icelandic Low, with the Atlantic powering up, even further for TIMBO Day (Mon.10th Feb). I suggest we predict the Daily Mail Headline, by this coming Saturday.

I'll have first stab:

PEST FROM THE WEST TO BATTER BRITAIN WITH 100 MPH WINDS.

This will probably be served up by, Claudia Aoroha, the new Nathan Rao!! 

Regards,

Tom.    

 

Hi there Tom

Just the Daily Mail, or the the Daily Express too? I wouldn't leave out the blizzard word myself, something like:

"Hurricane force 100 MPH winds and blizzards to batter the Uk, 20 foot drifts likely in Northern Britain."

How does that sound?

Well it could be all over with the competition by the 10th Feb so Timbo might in fact be our winner, chance of some sleet/snow on higher ground in the strong westerly, but will any of it settle? Chilterns, North Downs could get lucky I guess.

[snowray]

Snow chances 10th-13th Feb.

 

[snowray]

8 hours ago, tinybill said:

looks like there very wild  weather on the way  if the gfs  is right could get very messy later  in the week!!!

It was bad enough today around here with my wheelie bins having taken off like they had sprouted wings, one of them was almost empty and the contents all over the drive. Calmer now though.

[MAF]

Biggest problem with flying bins in my street is that they usually end up hitting my car 

Still, its dustbin day on Thursday so hopefully the bins will be weighed down a bit  by Saturday 

[stainesbloke]

GFS sticking with its idea of a significant storm next week and a general period of very windy weather. Could be some good chances for a squall line or two with some impressive convection. Hoping the storm is modelled to be less destructive, it won’t just affect the UK but much of the near continent, too. Though it’s been some time since the region has seen widespread storm force winds.