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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A chart like that has never verified in Sept - I checked back to 1948!

This is the nearest i can find to it but its not as long a fetch and as big a - NAO.

image.thumb.png.7403afb845d71da25c7dee0749d3be53.png

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39 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A chart like that has never verified in Sept - I checked back to 1948!

They don't verify all that often, in Dec, Jan or Feb, either. More to the point?:oldgrin:

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I see there are a lot of talks around the web about what will NAO do in winter,but even in -NAO you can have a very mild setup with cut of lows under the block which can remain static under poor setup in Europe, esential is to have low pressure around Italy and eastern Europe. This May-August -NAO stretch didnt bring any cooling in Europe which was allround very  warm for summer,with exception of May, there is a persistant poor pattern in Europe for longer term cold spels in summer or winter in last 5 or so years with only isolated odd month producing below average(1981-2010) outcome.

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As well as bringing in an unusually cool couple of days next weekend, this GFS run downplays any longer term high pressure build over the UK (it is still modelling a massively bloated Azores High in the Atlantic and over Europe - an all too familiar sight in the last 15-20 years), leaving us open to rain-bearing lows off of the Atlantic

Autumnal. As it should be in early October. Let's see if this downplaying of high pressure continues over the next 2 or 3 days or if it just proves to be a blip

Edited by LRD

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Nice depiction this evening of the frontal system due to arrive tomorrow

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.47ea1cf1cc5c7f1bff66b605b23edcac.jpg

 

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Can't fault the polar profile on the ECM.

image.thumb.png.63d346254d4d2ef8260ec0189282b6ef.png

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Tonight's GEFS 12Z ensembles still have the GFS Op going up and down, amongst a pile of scatter; so still no definitive idea as to which way things will eventually go...And, as for the value of the NAO Index, in three-four months' time...Not even Nostradamus knows the answer to that one!🧙‍♂️

image.thumb.png.190b85af5561b0fec7b0ea1ffc7ba647.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

The two cold days? Looks like someone 'missed' when playing Dot-to-Dot!:shok:

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The intense upstream amplification has induced an impressive cold arctic plunge down the western half of NA and WAA into the eastern half and in particular Greenland

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9672000.thumb.png.5c0e1c7f9907ac45098079f319158c35.pngecmwf-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-9672000.thumb.png.86d994ec32c03773329cd74e8b6fe546.png

Closer to home still looking unsettled as the trough moves east

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9715200.thumb.png.c8a260c0a4d74382196641459443b535.png150.thumb.png.1fe4a773cc25b80f708905f4467fe20d.png174.thumb.png.e49ccc8a8ea7ee17d64f9eb7362dbc83.png

Edited by knocker

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

The two cold days? Looks like someone 'missed' when playing Dot-to-Dot!:shok:

Yes but its only a time outlier really, others bring the Northerly plunge in just a day later.

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Looking at the Ecm 12z operational longer term, with hurricanes / tropical storms in the mix it's best to take anything it shows with a larger pinch of salt than usual!👍

240_mslp850.thumb.png.3e6f9ab76f7c5f27386b804ce7f77935.png

Edited by JON SNOW

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but its only a time outlier really, others bring the Northerly plunge in just a day later.

I like the useless model GEM, but as Jon says very uncertain and chances of GEM FI coming off is zero

gem-0-198.png?12gem-0-228.png?12gem-0-240.png?12

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The big news for me over the last 12 months is the icon model becoming more and more a factor. It comes out first and it's becoming a great trend setter for both the morning and evening runs.....how many times have we seen the ecm follow it's lead!

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26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I like the useless model GEM, but as Jon says very uncertain and chances of GEM FI coming off is zero

gem-0-198.png?12gem-0-228.png?12gem-0-240.png?12

I would not say the chances of that hot setup are zero, ECM right at the end is fairy hot.

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NOAA and the ext EPS are pretty much as expected with nothing of a particularly nasty nature lurking in the woodshed. Both have a trough in the western Atlantic with a westerly upper flow running around the subtropical high which is nudging north in the eastern atlantic.With the centre of the surface high to the south west this would suggest a north south split but temps not too bad and above average

814day_03.thumb.gif.abb491e9709fc7a4c7f0481c7e39b0cc.gif9-14.thumb.png.9c3ca6cacfc966ca141ef26903e35091.pngtemp.thumb.png.48e7059c11d24f2904939b7205ad73e0.png

Current North Atlantic SST anomaly

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.thumb.png.84c953fae203715d7a01b466b36f360a.png

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Lots of change in the models just beyond reliable at the moment - as ever take anything show beyond 144 hrs with large margin for error and correction. What is interesting to note is the arctic profile being consistently shown, one of high pressure - a theme since late April.. also quite an amplified flow to end September - two features that don't tend to come together at this point in the year, when we should see the jetstream steamrolling through on its normal westerly trajectory. What it means is a rather sluggish trough coming unstuck against heights to the NE, indeed trough disruption, with slow moving bands of rain under a SW/W air stream with every chance a potent northerly could quickly come in, or indeed ridge development through the UK, with low heights becoming cut off to the SW. Lots to keep an eye on, not least the impact of ex tropical storms..its the time of year when high pressure blocks have a hard time making there influence known, less intense heat and cold dense air, meaning we can be left sandwiched in a bit of a no-mans land with the 'major forces' struggling to exert enough dominance for the time being..

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For me I have to say... Its far to early to be talking up winter prospects just yet... Its September still!!! I can't see any potential winter bite till at least mid late November! The ECM mean brings some unsettled conditions next week, but the mean shows high pressure building towards the South later on, and again brings somewhat of a warm up. A very early call from me would be  a relatively settled 1st part of October.... Beyond that is anyone's guess. 

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144 (1).gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

EDM0-240.gif

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A tropical storm or hurricane has been modelled in the same place from the gfs for several runs in a row on the bottom left of the charts for the time period of 150-210 hours usually I see the placement of any tropical system vary in strength and position drastically at that range just thought I would note that.. Ofcourse anything at that time frame is uncertain whether its consistent or not. Nice to see some much needed rainfall for my area in the south east🙂

EUROPE_PRMSL_216.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_210.jpg

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