Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[knocker]

The ecm has the waving front traversing the county on Sunday thus wet and windy, with the next low in mid Atlantic.

This low deepens rapidly and tracks north east to Iceland over the next 30 hours, courtesy of the continuing influence of the European ridge and TPV/trough which, in combination,divert the energy crossing the Atlantic  The associated fronts bringing more rain and strong winds through Monday

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Looking at the 0z output there's a change on the way from the end of the weekend into next week in the form of atlantic frontal systems so some welcome rain for the parched SE / East Anglia but most of the unsettled weather seems to target NW Britain so it's looking like a N/S - NW/SE split but that's the mid range, the reliable timeframe these charts from the Ecm 0z operational show our weather becoming increasingly anticyclonic  once again and as the high drifts further east we develop a warmer southerly flow with temperatures widely into the low 20's celsius later this week, mid 20's c for the s / se on saturday and plenty of sunshine across the board, perhaps unbroken sunshine. Looking further ahead, the Gfs 0z operational shows a warm settled start to october..have a nice day.

 

 

 

[knocker]

[mb018538]

Not much more to add - enjoy this weeks sun, as the main breakdown occurs through Sunday.



Flooding concerns in the NW of Scotland with 4-5 inches of rain possible in the next 10 days. Drier the further S and E you head, perhaps to opposite problem for the SE corner, where it has been very dry. For example here in Cambridge we've had less than 10mm of rain since the 20th August.

For winter lovers...



By the end of the GFS run we have the PV taking over a large portion of the North Pole, with low heights abundant. Nothing out of the ordinary for early October of course, but a sign that the annual march to the colder months is gathering pace quickly.

Current state of 60N zonal winds is below average still, and forecast to stay that way as we head into October.

[SMU]

Interesting flip in the models today indicating some sort of high pressure / undercutting scenario-

Not so good if you want continued warm dry conditions however certainly not the norm in terms of jet stream location & shape...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The rest of the week and first part of the weekend look stunning from the UKMO. low pressure out West perhaps bringing a decline in conditions by Sunday. During next week conditions looking a little more unstable, but for me, it looks like the NW baring the brunt of the windy and unsettled conditions. Those further SE probably retain a fair amount of settled Conditions. Temps look decent away from the NW, even into next week.. Beautiful today, enjoy it if you can. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, Matt, at least it will be mild, thankfully winds from the SW, best direction for late Sept/early oct

[jules216]

32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting flip in the models today indicating some sort of high pressure / undercutting scenario-

Not so good if you want continued warm dry conditions however certainly not the norm in terms of jet stream location & shape...

was just pondering upon on this Steve,from 96h to 144h sudden pulse of amplification,where did it come from

[Methuselah]

We can only thank Divine Providence that this desperate scenario is about as likely to happen as Yours Truly winning next year's Mr Universe competition!

   

Plenty of time yet, for something properly cold: 

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by Ed Stone

[feb1991blizzard]

-6c clipping Scotland with -8c up near shetlands. snow for highlands.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

-6c clipping Scotland with -8c up near shetlands. snow for highlands.

thankfully that's at 384 on GFS, don't want that coming off living here

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thankfully that's at 384 on GFS, don't want that coming off living here

Think of the bigger picture, if we get 2 or 3 fetches throughout Oct with each one coldening the sea, we might ultimately get a N'ly that does some damage late Oct / Nov.

[weirpig]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

-6c clipping Scotland with -8c up near shetlands. snow for highlands.

Lovely chart  that if only a few months early   

[Frosty.]

The outer limits of the Gfs 12z operational show how it could get cold in early october with an Arctic flow!❄❄❄

Just for fun

 

Edited September 17, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

And here are the GEFS 12Z ensemble graphs: Where's the cold weather gone!?

   

   

When in doubt, check the Aberdeen graphs? It ain't there either...Confused?

   

[Tim Bland]

Bizarre?! Perhaps the output is the control run by mistake? 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here are the GEFS 12Z ensemble graphs: Where's the cold weather gone!?

 

 

When in doubt, check the Aberdeen graphs? It ain't there either...Confused?

 

You have posted incomplete charts, you have cut them short, that op is on its way down, those charts should go out to 3rd Oct.

Here is the Aberdeen full suite.

Edited September 17, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[jules216]

cold arriving "back door" to eastern Europe on ICON 12Z

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Bizarre?! Perhaps the output is the control run by mistake? 

Here’s the real ones . Aberdeen and London . 

come on Ed sort it out .

[feb1991blizzard]

CHECK : No you haven't actually sorry @Ed Stone, You have posted out of date charts.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I think some maybe jumping the gun a little with those 12z ensembles. I wait to see those ECM 12z ensembles first.. And the 0z was showing nothing drastic at all!! Still around 11c mean into the beginning of October for the Birmingham area!! Let's not forget this new GFS leaves alot to be desired!! It's going to be another winter of far fetched narnia charts from GFS if you ask me. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's not a bad ECM.. we have some unsettled conditions next week, especially towards W/NW parts, but it looks like high pressure will again come into force by the end of next week, especially for more Southern parts. Temps also look to be on the increase by day 10 as well. 

[Methuselah]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CHECK : No you haven't actually sorry @Ed Stone, You have posted out of date charts.

Thanks for that, feb. I guess my thingie was stuck on the 06Z run...Just like my returned homework often used to say: please try harder!

[knocker]

The ecm has the first upper trough deconstructing on Sunday as the surface front brings rain to most of the country. Whilst at the same time in mid Atlantic another low has developed at the base of the main upper trough

This then merges with the trough and deepens rapidly over the next 30 hours to be 953mb SW of Iceland as the jet tracks it NNE,although the associated waving front will cross the country bringing quite strong winds and rain

Over the next 24 hours analysis becomes quite complex with the troughs 'squeezing' the ridge and two surface lows with more fronts crossing the country. But this is obviously getting too far for this sort of detail

 

[Frosty.]

Summer makes another comeback at the end of the Ecm 12z operational...but more importantly it makes another comeback later this week with winds becoming SEly / Sly drawing up much warmer air from southern europe, more humid too..sunny on fri / sat.. thundery breakdown from the west on sunday?...feel the burn (sun burn)...