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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

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Over the rest of the week high pressure regains control but there is still a lot of energy to disperse and thus the position and orientation of the surface high cell is not static.But it will be dry for most areas with the exception perhaps  being the far north. Generally temps will be around average or a tad below but this masks regional and diurnal variations.

gfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-8808000.thumb.png.12c98209edabc98ce84ac64d8484e68c.pnggfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-8894400.thumb.png.5456680408bb74762c56a52e0b787158.pnggfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-9024000.thumb.png.fc149bebb96215e62c5494e746f38364.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-9110400.thumb.png.5ebdbae0eac8ceea5730e312365d626e.png

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Big changes in terms of how it feels next week on the ukmo and ecm!!northerly is back!!on the other hand it looks like it will still be sunny but maybe a  bit cooler aswell!!still no sign of rain right until the end of september!!

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No huge change regarding the ecm 5-10 period. Still a lot of energy running from the trough in the western Atlantic, around the amplifying subtropical high, towards the TPV/trough northern Russia. All of this indicates a dry period for much of the UK excluding the far north with temps generally around average. But as previously stated the actual position of the high cell will dictate regional variations of temps, and not forgetting diurnal

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9110400.thumb.png.759d6e2f62a62c363f66257890a9f14f.pngecmwf-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-9110400.thumb.png.202ad1586c3a0e7dc5f43ee29190d3e4.png

wed.thumb.png.f407df8e10d6d57a0e9e5dba19668ffd.png186.thumb.png.514184527133602f46d0465072b716f3.png210.thumb.png.4bde468c6e3a0980328df8e109d80f6c.png

Edited by knocker

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As mentioned by others already, rainfall totals are likely to be below average over the next 7-10 days as indicated by these 10 day accumulated rainfall charts from the ECM, GFS, GEM and UKMO (6 days total):

image.thumb.png.bb8745aeac88af4f61882d0051cf0861.png  image.thumb.png.3d2a2f6b0ce4222f9c142d0ef0fafcf4.png

image.thumb.png.6dcfa9ce5cc53ad7de808453ad10508a.png  image.thumb.png.014067df398d46e1fcba287b8eb581fa.png

Some locations in the south and East Anglia might go the full 10 days without rain if the GFS is correct.  

 

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...and in 10 days time ECM is predicting these conditions:

500s.                                                           850s

image.thumb.gif.122e9409c56752d1dc7c0f9d33b857de.gif   image.thumb.gif.61f77281b0cbcfe260f430fcb62c018d.gif

...hello, Indian Summer!

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Aye, plenty of dry weather during the run-up to October; but, thankfully, nowt too hot...but air from a southerly quarter still looks like dominating. Indian Summer? Maybe yes, maybe no!:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And the GEFS 00Z ensembles tend to back this up...to an extent!:santa-emoji:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And remaining very dry throughout, either way!😬

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Deep scandi trough is the total inverse of the Sept pressure anomalies observed over the last 10 yrs or so....

Bye bye Indian summer....

C0598A32-D77B-4543-9DA6-0DA54DFFDC17.thumb.png.648d4b17bb03d2b7b1f1aee2f0225d99.png

By the time the ECM reaches 240 hours though, it's all change with the trough gone and HP in it's place so the 'Indian Summer' is back with a vengeance. Long way off though, so we'll see.

ecmt850.240.pngecm500.240.png

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The Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates a lovely weekend the further south you are with plenty of very warm sunshine but more unsettled, cooler and breezier across the far north on saturday, gradually spreading to other northern areas on sunday with clearer weather into the far north and then early next week there's a bit of a hiccup generally across the UK as it briefly turns cooler and less settled from the north but then it warms up again and becomes anticyclonic, especially further south / southeast but as it's the mid / late september period i'm talking about, under high pressure the nights are expected to turn cool, especially where skies are clear and there's a risk of mist / fog patches but the sun is still strong enough to burn it away fairly quickly during the early mornings wherever it occurs! 👍🌞

EDM1-48.thumb.gif.29add313d0df7ae991e3ad67d0c5e166.gifEDM1-72.thumb.gif.4e7448a3f87ffbcef313b72e1030f05c.gifEDM0-72.thumb.gif.8ce8c34b6dac3be7ce7a2e3742462675.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.6207071540606c16a643cecca9c02ad8.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.d6836129cbdb9a2b81daf23bf3a530a8.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.0c0d8498f4b40493f2025b07c15d942e.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.93635563b327e22ff50e3d16d4b78607.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.08901ede2f43e424ce3b6e48198c7509.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.63c373bc3b967a5ed22403a13573475c.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.21c6edd7270e9af8bfbc4bbd9574ca22.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.e2b5386979a578a93f63a944a575b720.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.b9273d701465608b1dde5b89dffe2f4a.gif

 

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If we were about to enjoy an 'Indian Summer', could the GFS 06Z's prognosis for next Thursday be any more ideal?:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Ta ta, cold crap!:yahoo:

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Deep scandi trough is the total inverse of the Sept pressure anomalies observed over the last 10 yrs or so....

Bye bye Indian summer....

C0598A32-D77B-4543-9DA6-0DA54DFFDC17.thumb.png.648d4b17bb03d2b7b1f1aee2f0225d99.png

IF it turns out to be correct Steve, and how likely is that?

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9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

IF it turns out to be correct Steve, and how likely is that?

It looks like there will definitely be a scandi trough, its just whether the High is too dominant that the trough is forced further East to affect the UK.

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Well, the GFS at T+336 really does look dire! Though I wouldn't complain were it mid December, mind you...:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png:santa-emoji:

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30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, the GFS at T+336 really does look dire! Though I wouldn't complain were it mid December, mind you...:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png:santa-emoji:

I think I would complain if that verified in mid-December; the 850s aren't nearly cold enough for anything other than a bit of wintriness further north. It'd be cool and showery elsewhere with a keen windchill but not nearly cold enough for snow.

Then again, it's one chart deep in FI and not really worth any serious consideration 😉

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The EPS mean anomaly this morning, as it has been suggesting of late. gradually eases the amplification out in the ext period, albeit without suggesting that there is anything of note lurking in the woodshed. Quite a benign westerly upper flow with pressure still quite high, particularly in the lower half of the country. All of this would suggest a bias  (I hesitate to use the word in here) towards a N/S split with temps generally above average

5-10.thumb.png.062416760cbcdb71862d51c5f27de94f.png9-14.thumb.png.77f283a02607f1543ae2d668ade801f2.png

index.thumb.png.c25696d4a075e94ea6649f9f6ad48d54.pngprecip.thumb.png.87974937fce20641ed7fda7b3587b572.png

Not too much at odds with last evening's NOAA

814day_03.thumb.gif.9d745e72f347e8fd3412f8acac3996b4.gif

I'm not a great fan of selecting particular days from the clusters but you can see where it's struggling to hang on to any amplification

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019091200_288.thumb.png.c5cb47167f47e2083825e0d6487a5ca2.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019091200_336.thumb.png.26330a54bbee1b62949b68ca0f74c982.png

Edited by knocker

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35 minutes ago, mhielte said:

I think I would complain if that verified in mid-December; the 850s aren't nearly cold enough for anything other than a bit of wintriness further north. It'd be cool and showery elsewhere with a keen windchill but not nearly cold enough for snow.

Then again, it's one chart deep in FI and not really worth any serious consideration 😉

Just to clarify...I was referring to the synoptic pattern and not to the uppers, mhielte...But I do concur 100% with your final paragraph!:oldgrin:

And now to the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Which do, I think, emphasise an increasing degree of uncertainty?:unsure2:

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Still in the warm sector in these parts A lot of St/Sc with breaks.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.51ec94e4623ae6f4c7ae0cfb90cb7591.gif13.thumb.gif.24bd8df2af8c69ea2b172944d1acc475.gif2019091212.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.315e6c0897959af1a7291e8de4258909.gif

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Fantastic ukmo 12z and shunts the northerly further east again!gfs out to 168 hours and much the same again!!fabulous with high over the uk and sunny!!

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Out in F1 activities around the North American ridge instigates a downstream breakaway trough from the main trough in the western Atlantic

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8872800.thumb.png.10b0c039b35b9d2ea64db9e6d8b17e5c.png

The breakaway upper low tracks NE into Iceland where it's pepped up by a flow around the north of Greenland and develops into a major upper trough in the eastern Atlantic which does away with the in situ high pressure. Obviously just to be noted out of interest but the ecm has played around with something akin to this

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8959200.thumb.png.92ae4b923d9adfdb499e4d84a9c3d6ea.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9034800.thumb.png.4e70d729862e4c3ea7b59eaae916aa2e.png

Edited by knocker

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A very uncertain-looking outlook from today's GEFS 12Z ensembles -- once past the 21st, scatter takes over...?😬

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

So much so that anything from minima of 6C to maxima of 29C are both there. Just!:shok:

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Some very inclement weather in SE Spain at the moment courtesy of the upper low

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-8332800.thumb.png.54399a64f4fadd04b52ce0ee68c23496.pngecmwf-spain-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8311200.thumb.png.1f0cf697f500657690f46909d410472d.pngecmwf-spain-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8332800.thumb.png.7afb2a0af7b2f52f79e461d4da0b75f5.png

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.79475b8a32cb39f0ed3aad3b65bd02ba.jpg

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The total uncertainty in F1, in itself no big surprise, is illustrated once more as the ecm completely differs from the gfs by disrupting the west Atlantic trough.instread of progressing it east. This with the help of the TPV and European trough initiates further strong amplification of the subtropical high over the UK

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8894400.thumb.png.0a21959cc3fa574ded6545080f6c73e9.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9067200.thumb.png.0ec0bd1cce6729630138fd5028446dd7.png

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2 hours ago, shaky said:

Fantastic ukmo 12z and shunts the northerly further east again!gfs out to 168 hours and much the same again!!fabulous with high over the uk and sunny!!

looks good, but could fog be an issue? if so potentially yucky starts cold feel too, not sure that chart is as good as it looks

ECM1-192.GIF?12-0

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