Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[SMU]

2 hours ago, Tamara said:

Just as a very brief addition (before properly retiring to the sidlelines until next Spring) to the previous post made about 5 weeks back which alluded to the escalation of confirmation bias wrt weather preferences which.rises to its highest levels in autumn and winter

Its based on a conversation I have had with someone who is a very well respected observer elsewhere, with a level  of knowledge and perception that many would aspire to and of a higher technical level for sure than my own. Most importantly they suspend their own natural preferences and make judgements neutrally and based on the merits of all variables present and not selectively.  Such observers I think are the ones particularly worth listening to and trying to learn from.

Anyway, relevant to the here and now situation but extrapolating that forward in terms of future possibilities  - here is some of that conversation based on my own contributions. A few further additions have subsequently been made to make it most relevant to the UK and Europe

 

Yes for my own purposes, a defacto traditional Nina regime looks increasingly likely to persist in the months ahead. The question being where any Pacific convergence may set up to interfere with the regime and create scope for less tropical and extra tropical disconnect to the base state. In that sense the much less disconnected SOI plays a bit part if any westerly wind compartment is isolated, so to speak, due to a wider overriding -ve momentum inertia

High amplitude Phase 3 GWO could well be set to return to Phase 1 as trade winds increase across the IO following the recent extra tropical increase in momentum. Once the +EAMT wavelength fades over coming days, -ve FT in the tropics will lead MT momentum trending -ve once more and maintain the GWO well within the Nina attractor phases - providing the steer to persisting sub tropical ridging. This sub tropical ridging is well in evidence in present modelling and amplification of this ridging during autumn and indeed winter to provide short lived colder incursions is quite consistent with many similar years and not at all unusual, or any signal of a harsh winter,

This, plus question marks wrt QBO transition needs to be balanced against any weakness within the polar field c/o arctic and other destabilizing factors and why I personally continue to be much more ambivalent and sceptical about the relevance of blocking patterns at this stage of autumn in terms of what it might imply ahead. 

Just my view of course - and which customarily tries to be detached from mainstream hype that grows each and every year, at this time of year - and when sensible weather preferences and ideals often attempt to fit too many drivers to produce that desired outcome, when probabilities often suggest alternative solutions that are much less popular to the masses. 

The gist of this extract is that much is yet to become clearer in terms of seasonal overview, but especially stressing that model output commentary during the early stages of the short seasons and making assumptions  based on persistence of certain aspects of patterns is fraught with error when attempting to assign specially selected drivers as a means to fit the desired outcome. 

To all those following progress of the weather patterns in the weeks ahead, try to enjoy progress and evolution - regardless of outcomes vs preferred outcomes

 

 

Not the most ideal opening gambit saying that everyone is bias --

 

The Forecasting methods that you are both using are becoming more out of date Im afraid. Infact its pretty much widely accepted now that as fast as people thought they were catching up with some form of method to arrive at a seasonal forecast so that method is already of date-

*The reason being the rate of change of the arctic* This should be the focus area from now on.

The information 'abstract' you provide is mainly a summary of the pacific ENSO which at extremes impact the whole globe however at more neutral levels so the base pattern becomes low correlation for the UK, also to much focus on the subtropical zones-- whilst of course they platy a part theres needs to be balance.

More crucially****

- ENSO neutral this winter significantly reduces the signal for the UK

- No mention of solar input / cycle

( Bottom of current cycle )

- No mention of record sea ice loss 

( lowest values / extent recorded this year )

- No mention of the SSTa over 70>80N

( Highest in history )

- No mention of the heat over the pole

- No mention of the record breaking -NAO across the last 6 months & why its been persistent 

( no mention of +VE 10HPA values )

- No mention of the stratosphere other than the QBO which has currently stalled

So, forgive me ( & maybe many others ) - The talk in the weather community these days is very much about sea ice forcing & the residual heat in the pole & how initially this impacts local areas with high pressures > More especially the EPO & POL indexes becoming more extreme negative with time, eventually how that impacts the NAO / AO link will be the focus of my interest & should be the focus if your looking to see how this impacts the UK- not ENSO unless its at the top or bottom end of an index....

 

So to jump in with phrases such as fraught with error yet in your own method  fail to mention anything to do with arctic amplification indicates to me that these forecasts are very much bin fodder when you eliminate the most important component of a winter forecast - the polar cell.

S

 

Edited October 2, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Mapantz]

Let's cut out the digs & jibes, please?!

Thanks.

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Let's cut out the digs & jibes, please?!

Thanks.

Here here.

[Frosty.]

Just catching up... I didn't see the Gfs 12z operational earlier but again as I've been saying recently regarding recurring themes, it's showing wintry / arctic potential around mid month, especially for the north with widespread frosts and a chance of snow..yes..October snow / snaw... for our Scottish friends!!!!!!!❄❄❄

 

 

[Jordan S]

31 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Just catching up... I didn't see the Gfs 12z operational earlier but again as I've been saying recently regarding recurring themes, it's showing wintry / arctic potential around mid month, especially for the north with widespread frosts and a chance of snow..yes..October snow / snaw... for our Scottish friends!!!!!!!❄❄❄

 

 

Hopefully charts like this show up through November December onwards!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Hopefully charts like this show up through November December onwards!

Hope charts a lot better than that show up in December, some of the charts have been excellent for September (although still awaiting one to verify) but won't be getting excited about -5c uppers in December, will be looking for -8c and preferably -10c then unless a battleground shows up.

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hope charts a lot better than that show up in December, some of the charts have been excellent for September (although still awaiting one to verify) but won't be getting excited about -5c uppers in December, will be looking for -8c and preferably -10c then unless a battleground shows up.

You know what I meant.. The sort of pattern that the charts have been showing recently would be potentially very wintry in December January onwards the uppers would generally be a fair bit cooler than what is being shown atm even if the same synoptics happened in mid winter. 

[Tamara]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

The Forecasting methods that you are both using are becoming more out of date Im afraid. Infact its pretty much widely accepted now that as fast as people thought they were catching up with some form of method to arrive at a seasonal forecast so that method is already of date-

*The reason being the rate of change of the arctic* This should be the focus area from now on.

The information 'abstract' you provide is mainly a summary of the pacific ENSO which at extremes impact the whole globe however at more neutral levels so the base pattern becomes low correlation for the UK, also to much focus on the subtropical zones-- whilst of course they platy a part theres needs to be balance.

More crucially****

- ENSO neutral this winter significantly reduces the signal for the UK

 

- No mention of solar input / cycle

( Bottom of current cycle )

 

- No mention of record sea ice loss 

( lowest values / extent recorded this year )

 

- No mention of the SSTa over 70>80N

( Highest in history )

 

- No mention of the heat over the pole

 

- No mention of the record breaking -NAO across the last 6 months & why its been persistent 

( no mention of +VE 10HPA values )

 

 

- No mention of the stratosphere other than the QBO which has currently stalled

 

So, forgive me ( & maybe many others ) - The talk in the weather community these days is very much about sea ice forcing & the residual heat in the pole & how initially this impacts local areas with high pressures > More especially the EPO & POL indexes becoming more extreme negative with time, eventually how that impacts the NAO / AO link will be the focus of my interest & should be the focus if your looking to see how this impacts the UK- not ENSO unless its at the top or bottom end of an index....

 

 

So to jump in with phrases such as fraught with error yet in your own method  fail to mention anything to do with arctic amplification indicates to me that these forecasts are very much bin fodder when you eliminate the most important component of a winter forecast - the polar cell.

S

 

 

First I wasn't presenting a seasonal forecast ( just a paraphrased post) and am not a competitive forecaster anyway,  and don't subscribe to competitive 'methods' either. If you read the post properly (which you didn't) then you would see that I illustrated this by saying that I don't have the technical where-with-all of the person (person(s) to which I referred. Being honest isn't a weakness and doesn't need to be compensated by tub-thumping statements that proclaim what the 'talk of the weather community is these days'... 

This is an an internet site for people of all levels and hopefully of managed ego's - , not a platform for parading 'method manifestos'. There is too much of this grandstanding in our outside world as it is...

Arctic amplification was mentioned - I referred to it briefly as part of a condensed post and simply didn't write extensively about something that is pertinent to what you want to be the peoples anthem for the coming winter. It is one factor of many, which on its own does not lead to one favoured outcome all the time (as one season to another each year bears out), but involves consideration of multi-variables that might imply more than the one solution than a majority might want to hear.

You are free to do this of course, if you want to steer towards a populist outcome - but things don't always work out in reality however convincing they might appear to those who like what they hear.

Indeed things don't always work out for anyone when based on attempted objective discussion  - the weather makes mugs of all of us. But better to start from a baseline that manages expectation and hopes to learn from mistakes rather than be a tribal lead to populist weather preferences . The price of narcissism does have limits

 

 

Edited October 2, 2019 by Tamara

[ICE COLD]

Still some nice looking charts appearing. Here the GFS 18z around day 9 . Hopefully there still be there in 6 weeks time , just with colder uppers . 

[SMU]

Another trough in the NAO circa -2.5 around mid month according to the 18z - as time passes that cold pool to the NE grows in its expanse & becomes impactful over the UK whether its from the North or the East..

12z ENS indicating a sustained period below average...

Edited October 2, 2019 by Steve Murr

[SLEETY]

I've lost track of decent looking synoptic charts in the Autumn months,over the years with HLB and lows tracking much further South than normal,but always too early in the season then Once December onwards comes,it all disappears,till Spring,when the weather decides to goback to HLB again,normally when it's too late,bar the odd occasion like 2018 and ,2010.

You could almost put money on it happening most years!

Edited October 2, 2019 by SLEETY

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Not the most ideal opening gambit saying that everyone is bias --

 

The Forecasting methods that you are both using are becoming more out of date Im afraid. Infact its pretty much widely accepted now that as fast as people thought they were catching up with some form of method to arrive at a seasonal forecast so that method is already of date-

*The reason being the rate of change of the arctic* This should be the focus area from now on.

The information 'abstract' you provide is mainly a summary of the pacific ENSO which at extremes impact the whole globe however at more neutral levels so the base pattern becomes low correlation for the UK, also to much focus on the subtropical zones-- whilst of course they platy a part theres needs to be balance.

More crucially****

- ENSO neutral this winter significantly reduces the signal for the UK

- No mention of solar input / cycle

( Bottom of current cycle )

- No mention of record sea ice loss 

( lowest values / extent recorded this year )

- No mention of the SSTa over 70>80N

( Highest in history )

- No mention of the heat over the pole

- No mention of the record breaking -NAO across the last 6 months & why its been persistent 

( no mention of +VE 10HPA values )

- No mention of the stratosphere other than the QBO which has currently stalled

So, forgive me ( & maybe many others ) - The talk in the weather community these days is very much about sea ice forcing & the residual heat in the pole & how initially this impacts local areas with high pressures > More especially the EPO & POL indexes becoming more extreme negative with time, eventually how that impacts the NAO / AO link will be the focus of my interest & should be the focus if your looking to see how this impacts the UK- not ENSO unless its at the top or bottom end of an index....

 

So to jump in with phrases such as fraught with error yet in your own method  fail to mention anything to do with arctic amplification indicates to me that these forecasts are very much bin fodder when you eliminate the most important component of a winter forecast - the polar cell.

S

 

Great analysis.

And 'certainly'..

We need 'imo'  (as well)..

To look at pole emphasis.

And the guide tool now..

For a more probable-forecast.

And solar. And axis phasing!.

Things are 'a' changing'..

#cooling phase 

#natural cycle!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Lets hope the control is in control

the ens suit,flat lining around the 0 isotherm at this local

i feel something is a foot,hopefully a foot of snow soon

 

 

Edited October 3, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

I've lost track of decent looking synoptic charts in the Autumn months,over the years with HLB and lows tracking much further South than normal,but always too early in the season then Once December onwards comes,it all disappears,till Spring,when the weather decides to goback to HLB again,normally when it's too late,bar the odd occasion like 2018 and ,2010.

You could almost put money on it happening most years!

One thing that the past few years of 'dud' winters have had in common is a blocked autumn beforehand. Looking at the modelling, this year looks to be no different to the past few in this regard.

I'm surprised that after the past few years, people aren't realising that stratospheric winds can pick up substantially in the space of a few days- as they did late November/early December a few years back. 2016 I think it was. The connect with the trop occurred and we got to see none of the cold that was mooted. 

I'm generally happy to follow the guidance of the seasonal models for now in terms of further down the line, regardless of what we're seeing churned out in the shorter range NWP at present.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

looking  at the charts  and looking in the alantic its looking very wet   soon  to deep into fantasy  world  , next worry  with so much rain flooding will  be the next worry

 

[Mr Frost]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

One thing that the past few years of 'dud' winters

Hope you don’t mind mods but just to clear this up once and for all...this chat about the past few years Winters being duds is a myth. 

Unless you are talking about what you experienced locally in Crewe?

2017/18 was incredible up here and pretty decent in many parts of the UK and Ireland. (link below to historic information)

December was just 0.2°C above the 1981-2010.

Average temperatures for January 2018 were 0.4C above the 1981-2010 long-term average.

February was a rather cold month, with a mean temperature of just 2.4°C, 1.3°C below the 1981-2010 average

https://www.theweatherclub.org.uk/node/474

Lastly here is a link to the Scottish regional thread starting from January 2018 - first page sets the tone for an incredible Winter. (Also had plenty of snowfall in the last week of December)

Just had a browse through the latest GFS and the story seems to be a recurring theme of cold/chilly nights for many parts of the UK and Ireland - especially North through the month. (Pretty standard stuff for October)

Another cold start here today but a glorious sunrise!

 

Have a good Thursday everyone! 

Edited October 3, 2019 by Mr Frost

[ICE COLD]

Nice looking ECM 00z . Greenland blocking . 

[Paul]

Locking this one now. New thread open here: