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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Early days but icon 12z a smidge further south at 72 hours!tries to undercut but dont make it this run but it has sort of gone towards gfs solution slightly!!

Edited by shaky
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

ukmo undercuts Lorenzo so hopefully a cold run coming up

UW96-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes Entry point central Ireland - Exit point ~ Norfolk -

Huge amount of wind across Ireland especially on the west coast however additional concerns

- Swell / waves / tide - coastal flooding

- England flooding due to sodden ground...

Gfs sticks to undercut at 96 hours aswell!!

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Latest NOAA track have the Outer Hebrides/Western Isles in the mix for big wind gusts.

B596AC79-D3C3-4D50-8D67-B67188295912.thumb.png.83516fc7b512e6884d743f4d4dc77025.pngE21EE7A4-E07B-40C8-950C-DB8695311BFA.thumb.png.c41afbf79498ba285d1c141365145d12.png

Latest GFS track. (Friday 04/10 00:00)

E1FE4917-FD6D-475D-AA9D-4E28AEEA4261.thumb.png.453478f3f267183ead037790210b5ba6.png

I wonder if this is going to be a major wind event for quite a few of us in the UK & Ireland or a standard Autumn storm? 

It really is fascinating to follow with the different track options on offer!

Short term many of us will enjoy sunshine and cold nights and hopefully I will enjoy another sunset like the one below on Saturday night! 

B47044B9-CB18-41E7-A6BB-252C5E6400FF.thumb.png.d6df483073043fa89e4c4437d95c8fe8.pngD89491D9-CA84-4CF2-A970-E85EDCBF5C90.thumb.png.3b48186d261a42b6c228d20b59287f11.png

98467D69-F5CB-44DE-BEB8-11EE862C9AAC.thumb.jpeg.6d0324432735a12c55ef7247c328e81f.jpeg

The weather is not boring that’s for sure! Have a good night all! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Wintry and stormy weather
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Although this isn’t model related, I’m due to fly Friday afternoon from LHR to Logan in Boston. Is it safe to say it’ll be a bumpy ride? 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Phew!! Any outbreak of ENE 12C dross looks like being short-lived...?:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I'm looking at the charts and thinking flooding could be a real issue for some. Especially in areas that saw 150+% of the average over summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

A snapshot of all the main models on track of ex-Lorenzo at T90 (GFS, GEM, ARPEGE, ICON) and T96 (UKMO and ECM

image.thumb.jpg.f6880573a85805d28156cfb08c799908.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3b63c78198bce8642bb351b400d85353.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.72d19b77dd38ca8d547e397214ff2c78.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bd7d94eb8905640c91b6cd590b74ce17.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.05df66fa5b2151992c48b5fc13566501.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2a9562b8f390888f92cca59f63acd66e.jpg

With the exception of ICON, which fizzles to the NW, the rest hit the UK, with UKMO and ECM taking a fairly southerly track.  

Difficult to be sure about wind and rain hazards precisely yet, but here's wind gusts as storm impacts Northern Ireland T84:

image.thumb.jpg.5dab5c2146b0783c3f43eff78ab3abce.jpg

And cumulative rainfall over the first 10 days of October (obviously not all due to the Lorenzo system).

image.thumb.jpg.f259125bccd2ff37b3d153b65c86e1bb.jpg

Soggy!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

A snapshot of all the main models on track of ex-Lorenzo at T90 (GFS, GEM, ARPEGE, ICON) and T96 (UKMO and ECM

image.thumb.jpg.f6880573a85805d28156cfb08c799908.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3b63c78198bce8642bb351b400d85353.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.72d19b77dd38ca8d547e397214ff2c78.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bd7d94eb8905640c91b6cd590b74ce17.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.05df66fa5b2151992c48b5fc13566501.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2a9562b8f390888f92cca59f63acd66e.jpg

With the exception of ICON, which fizzles to the NW, the rest hit the UK, with UKMO and ECM taking a fairly southerly track.  

Difficult to be sure about wind and rain hazards precisely yet, but here's wind gusts as storm impacts Northern Ireland T84:

image.thumb.jpg.5dab5c2146b0783c3f43eff78ab3abce.jpg

And cumulative rainfall over the first 10 days of October (obviously not all due to the Lorenzo system).

image.thumb.jpg.f259125bccd2ff37b3d153b65c86e1bb.jpg

Soggy!

Getting a bit sick of all the rain round these parts now

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is it me? Or does the GFS 12Z end on a rather bland note...The bland of the bland?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

That said, after all the excitement of this week, a spot of blandness might be a good thing. Won't verify anyway!:oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Certainly  looks like Ireland could be in the sights of lorenzo   as for Britain  still up in the air  difficult to see on current charts how much it will decay if it reaches us   still plenty to look out for 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
41 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

October 1st tomorrow...glorious time of the year when the lovely blue colour appears to our North West, North and North East and begins it’s push South.

Too early for us for anything exciting snow wise at low levels but great to see the Winter-esque scenes from Scandinavia and such. 

It almost brings a tear to my eye - up there with the birth of my son. ⛄

ECM to +144 hours.

anim_jqx4.gif

 

It does feel like the darkness of autumn has really set in now, especially with the cloudy and windy damp weather. Would be nice to have some clear sunny days back though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Interesting synoptics on offer, a plunge from the north, followed by an undercutting ex tropical storm feature, with heights holding there own to the north and north east - combined with some impressive cold pooling to our NE.

Thereafter, no clear sign that the atlantic will break through with earnest, another slider low moving through before possibly a long fetch SW, with the trough sinking on a NW-SE path again and heights building robustly through the mid atlantic - a long way off though..

October will start off on a very varied theme, with a bit of everything thrown in.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

The 15z UKV (the 03z and 15z runs go to 120 hours, the others to 54 hours) has ex-Lorenzo a bit further north as it makes landfall. It then fills fairly quickly as it moves southeast, with the centre over the Isle of Wight as it clears. 

ukv.png ukv2.png

Here's the difference between the 3z and 15z

ukv3vs15.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Once Lorenzo's out of the way, the GEFS 00Z ensembles suggest a spell of uncertain autumnal nothingness will ensue...?

prmslNorfolk.png   t850Norfolk.png

t2mNorfolk.png   prcpNorfolk.png

Could be the SAD setting-in though?:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, preferably thunderstorms, cold and bad weather.
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
12 hours ago, Paul said:

The 15z UKV (the 03z and 15z runs go to 120 hours, the others to 54 hours) has ex-Lorenzo a bit further north as it makes landfall. It then fills fairly quickly as it moves southeast, with the centre over the Isle of Wight as it clears. 

ukv.png ukv2.png

Here's the difference between the 3z and 15z

ukv3vs15.png

The NOAA report a wide field of strong winds, so it seems to me that Ireland and maybe the west coasts of Britain will take an early and prolonged battering, and coastal flooding will be a problem too, but after that, the excitement dies down pretty quickly. Round these parts, I'm not expecting much out of the ordinary unless the track is pushed further northwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Assuming that the Fax chart for 12Z Friday turns out to be about right then Lorenzo, or rather its remains, is going to follow a pretty unusual track=NNE then ESE. I honestly cannot ever remember either in internet days or in my work period any major low doing that sort of track into the UK. Perhaps others can show something similar?

Was thinking that myself, even with my limited knowledge of meteorology in the true sense, it seems totally illogical to me.

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