Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[Frosty.]

15 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z longer term there's more chance of an Indian summer than an early arctic outbreak.

The Ecm 0z operational must have read my post overnight..spooky!!!

Edited September 30, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Paul]

41 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

UKV, not heard of that before, another 'word' for FAX or different model, cos FAX is my least favourite track

The UKV is the met-office's hi-res (1.5km) model. So, it's likely that the forecaster(s) doing the fax charts will take it into account more often than not. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/approach/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

[shaky]

Changes already on gfs 06z in regards to track of lorenzo!!already further south compared to 00z at just 66 hours!!

[SMU]

 Remember guys - GFS / undercutting lows always last to the party V the UKMO 

Even undercutting Hurricanes -

Finally catching up now not good news for Ireland

* With 3 days away expect corrections south *

Edited September 30, 2019 by Steve Murr

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember guys - GFS / undercutting lows always last to the party V the UKMO 

Even undercutting Hurricanes !!

Well this is now ridiculous from gfs!!you seen the latest gfs steve?full on undercut at 102 hours and lorenzo is now going through central england lol!!00z was south of iceland!

[shaky]

Gfs legacy and the operational now give a full on scandi high like ukmo!!you couldnt make it up!!!

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Well this is now ridiculous from gfs!!you seen the latest gfs steve?full on undercut at 102 hours and lorenzo is now going through central england lol!!00z was south of iceland!

Yep  this could turn into a nasty event for someone  certainly something to keep an eye on 

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  this could turn into a nasty event for someone  certainly something to keep an eye on 

I just cant believe there is big changes  at such short notice!!am so glad its not december or january right now!!am sure i would have a mental break down lol!!the charts we seeing at the moment would almost certainly bring a significant snow even somewhere in the uk!

[Mr Frost]

IF the latest GFS was spot on with the track and it is a big IF obviously...looking at wind gusts peaking between 80 to 90mph on parts of the Irish and maybe Northern Ireland coast I would imagine! Proper storm that! (GFS charts below 03/10 21:00 to 04/10 03:00 - added these due to effects more on land. Even stronger gusts out at sea before this)

Areas below on the map would be most at risk of the above. (Wonder if we have any members who live in these places)

Whatever happens/outcome...very interesting model/chart viewing currently and over the next couple of days. 

Have a good day everyone! 

Edited September 30, 2019 by Mr Frost

[legritter]

Looking very interesting ,a tasty synoptic situation looming .lets hope the following 6 months brings plenty of STella charts Prozac moments   ,Northern blocking ,below 490 dam thicknesses ,an ice bridge across the channel .right im of to Asda to stock up .Great forum ,cheers gang STEllas on me .

[Brassmonkeylily]

Latest update from the Us Hurricane Centre ... close to our shores! 

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

 

[SMU]

Based on all the guidance I would say this is the best stab at day 4 in terms of landing zone - maybe a smidge further south

[Methuselah]

Nice to see that the possibility of warm air coming up from the south isn't entirely dead, yet?

   

[Frosty.]

The longer term signal from the GEFS 6z mean suggests a sluggish / benign / slow moving pattern becoming established towards / during mid october with the PFJ (polar front jet) to the north of the uk and there is even a possibility of an indian summer with temps into the high teens / low 20's c across southern uk... I'm well aware of the closer timeframe uncertainty regarding the track of Ex Hurricane Lorenzo and until that's resolved, anything beyond day 4 is FI but I'm only describing what the mean currently shows.

Edited September 30, 2019 by JON SNOW

[SMU]

As the GFS ENS find higher pressure rises over Scandi around 168 then some members are creating some further tasty undercutting around 192....

Uppers around -4c into England this time of year ~ 10c maxima.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As the GFS ENS find higher pressure rises over Scandi around 168 then some members are creating some further tasty undercutting around 192....

Uppers around -4c into England this time of year ~ 10c maxima.

Also to add one of the posters in the stratosphere thread last week mentioned scandi height rises within the next 2 weeks and they look to be spot on!!

[lorenzo]

I seem to be causing forecasting problems.

[tinybill]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

 Remember guys - GFS / undercutting lows always last to the party V the UKMO 

Even undercutting Hurricanes -

Finally catching up now not good news for Ireland

* With 3 days away expect corrections south *

Hope  Ireland ready it could very messy there  later

[MATTWOLVES 3]

While everyone is talking about the lorenzo impacts of will it, or won't it..... Time to take a little look at our first proper cold shot of the upcoming season! Ladies and gentlemen.... I bring you the much ridiculed CFS, or chocolate fireguard system to others!! Make a note for October 31st....first Ntly incoming!!! Wowzer... 

Edited September 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Timmytour]

The week after looks worse than anything Lorenzo is chucking our way this week!

[carinthian]

On 28/09/2019 at 11:25, carinthian said:

Most of the main models show colder polar maritime airmass over much of NW Europe by the middle of next week. Eventually a cut off low to form over Adriatic. So heavy rainfall amounts expected in the Alpine Region with snowfall on the North Alps by Thursday. Still lots of doubt about the track of the ex tropical hurricane, so further changes in the model outputs can be expected soon, especially as it has now being downgraded during the past few hours with the eye eroding. Anyway first frosts of the season this coming week for some of you and from my view will be looking carefully at our snow model predictions on Monday morning.

C

Just an update from over here regarding the above post from last Saturday. The snow model has now provided its first prediction here at height 1640m and that's for 4cm of snow at 6 am Thursday morning. As with most of the worlds models Lorenzo forecast eventual track throwing all sorts of spanners into the work.  The feeling here is still for the track to be more southerly with less of a North Atlantic upper trough interaction.  Some even think France or Spain landfall . However, confidence still low as with all forecasting teams presently. What is to be noted from our team is the very low night temps during the second part of the week in Central Europe, forecast down to -12c in parts. Read what you want into that but would indicate some sort of cold block in place early.

 C

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just an update from over here regarding the above post from last Saturday. The snow model has now provided its first prediction here at height 1640m and that's for 4cm of snow at 6 am Thursday morning. As with most of the worlds models Lorenzo forecast eventual track throwing all sorts of spanners into the work.  The feeling here is still for the track to be more southerly with less of a North Atlantic upper trough interaction.  Some even think France or Spain landfall . However, confidence still low as with all forecasting teams presently. What is to be noted from our team is the very low night temps during the second part of the week in Central Europe, forecast down to -12c in parts. Read what you want into that but would indicate some sort of cold block in place early.

 C

I would.not be surprised if you are correct as i have taken a look at the gfs pressure ensembles and  the op is actually one of the lower pressure options at the bottom!!could see further upgrades to the scandi high scenario this evening!!

[jules216]

20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Just an update from over here regarding the above post from last Saturday. The snow model has now provided its first prediction here at height 1640m and that's for 4cm of snow at 6 am Thursday morning. As with most of the worlds models Lorenzo forecast eventual track throwing all sorts of spanners into the work.  The feeling here is still for the track to be more southerly with less of a North Atlantic upper trough interaction.  Some even think France or Spain landfall . However, confidence still low as with all forecasting teams presently. What is to be noted from our team is the very low night temps during the second part of the week in Central Europe, forecast down to -12c in parts. Read what you want into that but would indicate some sort of cold block in place early.

 C

cant wait Carinthian,Gefs 6z have cooled dramatically over 0Z suite,it even gives me 20% chance of snow @ 400m.asl in central/east Slovakia,mean now down to about -3C 850hPa

[Seasonality]

10 minutes ago, jules216 said:

cant wait Carinthian,Gefs 6z have cooled dramatically over 0Z suite,it even gives me 20% chance of snow @ 400m.asl in central/east Slovakia,mean now down to about -3C 850hPa

Quite a change indeed! Look at the snow row for Warsaw. Not bad for output generated on 30 September.

[SMU]

Remember what I said last week around models gravitating to cold in the winter despite wanting to head towards mild- ( rem 09/10 & 2018 for example

Not quite winter here but Central Europe would just be able to fit into that catagory

look at the ensembles for Central Europe flip over 18 hours from mild to cold

@carinthian

Edited September 30, 2019 by Steve Murr