Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[Mike Poole]

ECM siding with UKMO and ARPEGE tonight on the basic track of Lorenzo, here T96, but with added southerly emphasis:  

Edit. ECM T120:

This looks the southerly extent of a large cone (with GFS the northerly extent) as far as impact on the UK is concerned, more runs needed!

Edited September 29, 2019 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes great run, another non event, but still FI, infact Friday looks a decent day

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes great run, another non event, but still FI, infact Friday looks a decent day

Maybe just maybe the beeb were right to go with GFS over ECM 

 

[Mike Poole]

^  Nope, the uncertainty is still all there,   Lorenzo ends up wrapped up in the complex low SW of Iceland on GFS, it's on it's own south of the channel actually on ECM.  Anything in between is still possible in my view.

Edited September 29, 2019 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

Whatever happens it looks like  a total non event for the uk regardless at the moment!!!lorenzo gona have  minimal impact!!one thing that has caught my attention is a growing signal for scandi heights on ukmo and ecm holding any wet weather back in the atlantic!!!so could be another bout of dry weather sooon afteer this weeks deluge!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So there you have it folks with todays models.... Will it.... Won't it.... Here is quick look at some of the main models for the end of next week.... The ingredients are there but.............. 

[DR(S)NO]

I wonder if there’s a correlation between the appearance of headlines like...

FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS UK AFTER BRITAIN RAVAGED BY THREE DAYS OF RAIN - WITH HURRICANE LORENZO SET TO BRING MORE MISERY LATER THIS WEEK, MET OFFICE WARN

and seemingly extreme weather that suddenly isn’t as serious?

[johnholmes]

An interesting period for model watching. One would expect both ECMWF and UK Met to be closer to what will happen than GFS!

But we have to wait and see. Not often you see a hurricane actually going to affect the Azores?

[Methuselah]

A lot of scatter appearing again, in the GEFS 12Zs...Day 8 looks about as far as one can go?

    

   

And even that depends on the final track of Lorenzo. 

[Newberryone]

Fortunately all model runs in the last 24 hours significantly downgrading any possible impact from Lorenzo but still a very fluid setup. Also noticeable in this time period has been a gradual moving away from anything distinctly unsettled or wintry post Lorenzo with Atlantic systems being veered further away to the northwest owing to a huge swathe of high pressure in the south Atlantic. October still holding the promise I feel of something more akin to late summer than autumn as time progresses.

[Country Boy]

The Hurricane Center has Lorenzo heading to the West of Ireland and up towards Iceland.

At this stage it looks like the UK will get strong winds from its southerly track.

 

[SMU]

The blend of overnight GEM & UKMO ( & the ICON I posted yesterday seems like the correct solution, ironically that could be worst case scenario for Ireland - where Lorenzo is forced under the ridge -

Whenever there is talk of undercutting the GFS will tend to lag behind UKMO especially relating to all things tropical....

UKMO + GEM blend 96 hr seems odds on.

Identical!

[The Eagle]

Yes Steve. Irish Met and UK Met monitoring the situation with the NHC daily now. Clearly the "way out west" solution is not thought to fly with them at the moment. 

This could yet be an event. Nothing certain yet.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The blend of overnight GEM & UKMO ( & the ICON I posted yesterday seems like the correct solution, ironically that could be worst case scenario for Ireland - where Lorenzo is forced under the ridge -

Whenever there is talk of undercutting the GFS will tend to lag behind UKMO especially relating to all things tropical....

UKMO + GEM blend 96 hr seems odds on.

Identical!

Aye GFS 06Z will correct itself, way out with the track, this won't be a non event

[Man With Beard]

ECM looks hairy but a bit further west (mainly an Ireland impact) 

 

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM looks hairy but a bit further west (mainly an Ireland impact) 

 

If that chart was Dec/jan i would be tearing my hair out..

[mb018538]

Still pretty difficult looking much beyond the impacts of Lorenzo, as it will have a huge impact on the weather in the week after etc.

ECM this morning has an Indian summer style evolution by day 8/9/10, with warm days and chilly nights:



With big differences between the models still (and we're only 4 days away now) then we will have to sit tight for a bit longer.

 

Edited September 30, 2019 by mb018538

[BlueHedgehog074]

What the Arpege 00Z makes of the stormy situation for later this week (out to 102 hours):

Takes the angry Low towards Northern UK across Scotland. Best not to be going on a voyage in the Highlands if this was the case...

But I think certainly some varied solutions on offer regarding the storm’s track still. There’s quite a possibility it could very well have the UK’s name on it.

Have to admit, for those missing the Summery weather though, that ECMWF run will bring some smiles this morning. ?

Edited September 30, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

What the Arpege 00Z makes of the stormy situation for later this week (out to 102 hours):

Takes the angry Low towards Northern UK across Scotland. Best not to be going on a voyage in the Highlands if this was the case...

But I think certainly some varied solutions on offer regarding the storm’s track still. There’s quite a possibility it could very well have the UK’s name on it.

Have to admit, for those missing the Summery weather though, that ECMWF run will bring some smiles this morning. ?

the last bit, aye certainly I am, but FI so wouldn't say smiles

[SLEETY]

Hope that ECM run comes off.I love summer weather in October,as it’s late in the year it never gets unbearably hot and the nights are never too warm either.Perfect combination.Has an Fl ECM run ever come off as shown.I can’t remember any.Can remember plenty of ECM FL runs that have never ever remotely verified,one in particular springs to mind

[Iceaxecrampon]

GFS not having anything of Lorenzo - NNE tracking.

[Frosty.]

The recurring Gfs theme continues with an early taste of winter on the 0z operational, yes it's deep low res but it keeps popping up and it's followed by a frosty high on this run!.

winter is coming!

 

[Paul]

Take your pick this morning when it comes to ex-Lorenzo. GFS, ECM and UKV all handling it very differently. 

GFS

ECMWF:

UKV:

Most of the GFS ensembles go for something similar to the GFS or ECM with maybe 3/20 members taking it along the lines of the UKV. Wouldn't want to place much money on the most likely outcome at the moment. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKV, not heard of that before, another 'word' for FAX or different model, cos FAX is my least favourite track

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 00Zs paint a rather confused picture; once Lorenzo has passed by, things predictably become unpredictable:

   

   

Let's hope there'll be some calm, foggy nights to enjoy?