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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, halny said:

I haven't seen the reanalysis, but is it really record-breaking? There was 5 cm of snow on 12 Oct 2015 in Krakow, (following 35C heat in September and average daytime August highs a shade under 30C.) And I was 70 miles north of Krakow in the snowstorm of Oct 2012 when for three days it failed to rise above freezing. The continent can get very cold, very quick. And yet it'll still rain on Christmas.

That last chart i posted - if there was an undecutter to draw it westwards then with relatively short sea track would mean circa -10c uppers and heavy snow for SE England - virtually unheard of in October.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Italian / Swiss Alps (Lake Como / St Moritz)
  • Location: Italian / Swiss Alps (Lake Como / St Moritz)
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

That last chart i posted - if there was an undecutter to draw it westwards then with relatively short sea track would mean circa -10c uppers and heavy snow for SE England - virtually unheard of in October.

I remember cycling to work when we got the dusting in London in late October 2008. I wonder what sort of uppers we had back then.

Regardless, we've got Tropical Storm Lorenzo to get through first, and my garden's already sodden.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 hour ago, halny said:

I remember cycling to work when we got the dusting in London in late October 2008. I wonder what sort of uppers we had back then.

Regardless, we've got Tropical Storm Lorenzo to get through first, and my garden's already sodden.

I think they where - 5 upper air temperatures back at the end of October 2008 but I could be wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM T96 looks a bit scary with Lorenzo holding together for longer

ECM1-96.GIF?29-12

but still weakens quickly before landfall 

ECM1-120.GIF?29-12

Worth pointing out, though, that Lorenzo has strengthened to a Cat 5 overnight, had this information gone into the ECM 00Z data? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Seems Lorenzo fired up again overnight. According to the NHC the strongest ever recorded so far NE.Upper air data in that location is generally very scarce so any feed into the Medium range weather models will be limited. Dare to say a very interesting week coming up for weather watchers. No doubt many changes aloft as so to speak.

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
36 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T96 looksWorth pointing out, though, that Lorenzo has strengthened to a Cat 5 overnight, had this information gone into the ECM 00Z data? 

That's a man-made concept though. I'd imagine its predicted strengthening would have gone into the data though, as with any low pressure system.

Edited by Alexis
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
14 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Seems Lorenzo fired up again overnight. According to the NHC the strongest ever recorded so far NE.Upper air data in that location is generally very scarce so any feed into the Medium range weather models will be limited. Dare to say a very interesting week coming up for weather watchers. No doubt many changes aloft as so to speak.

C

If that main Icelandic low was a few hundred miles further east... the jet would have swung Lorenzo towards the UK with far less weakening between T96 and T120 — early to say but perhaps we're going to dodge a bullet here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Morning all,

Looking at the week ahead there's a colder shot from the north around midweek as these Ecm 0z operational charts show and then further ahead the Gfs 0z operational shows an even colder shot from the arctic with widespread frosts and a risk of snow, at least for scotland.. As I've said recently, october could be a very interesting month with a chance of surprisingly very early snow for some..to whet the appetite for winter proper!!!!❄

72_thickuk.thumb.png.4711e19ae56f051ca74f6e301acbaff8.png72_mslp850.thumb.png.4a5f40797c19f4bf5a2706e13452a7b8.png00_300_ukthickness850.thumb.png.5aaa45e7963acc03235e8240cf4bc38b.png00_300_preciptype.thumb.png.83bc2fa254661a9976a5ea900941820f.png00_300_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.bc9b935ac631b8434831e816e75ab4f4.png00_312_uk2mtmpmin.thumb.png.dd200cc55d046e94d6ba6a9b912281ef.png00_300_mslp850.thumb.png.414452ae27c36ae4be79ee0e8b128091.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If that main Icelandic low was a few hundred miles further east... the jet would have swung Lorenzo towards the UK with far less weakening between T96 and T120 — early to say but perhaps we're going to dodge a bullet here. 

Yes, would imagine very difficult prognosis for any forecast team for NW Europe area next week. As and when the ex tropical storm/Lorenzo moves further NE , more accessible data  will become available to see if indeed it engages the North Atlantic trough.

C

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Thunderstorms, Wind
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)
21 minutes ago, Alexis said:

That's a man-made concept though. I'd imagine its predicted strengthening would have gone into the data though, as with any low pressure system.

Doesn't really matter when gfs and ecm are initializing with the low far too high in pressure, the nhc says the pressure is 925, both models are much higher than that which is obviously going to change their tracks.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

All looking like fairly typical October fayre, according to the GEFS 00Z ensembles. And the GFS Op. is still a cold outlier circa Day 12...?

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Yes, would imagine very difficult prognosis for any forecast team for NW Europe area next week. As and when the ex tropical storm/Lorenzo moves further NE , more accessible data  will become available to see if indeed it engages the North Atlantic trough.

C

The latest fax chart is just amazing still showing a hurricane close to British waters. Will it move towards Iceland or head towards Biscay ? The current million dollar question ! However, could just disintegrate before our eyes. As I say lack of upper air data in this region is well documented. So will just have to rely on current recon data collected by NOAA. All powerful and amazing goings on in our turbulent atmosphere. 

C

20190928.2324.PPVO89.png

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Daily conference calls between Irish Met, UK Met and NHC underway regarding Lorenzo.

A lot of uncertainty still over the track unlikely to be resolved today. Huge split in potential outcomes.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The GFS 06Z continues to send Lorenzo far to our NW, but shows what can happen even at our latitude if a strong hurricane interacts optimally with energy from the Atlantic - still near 950mb and probably cat 1/2 hurricane equivalent winds. Perhaps, with the increasing ferocity of hurricanes and rising sea water temperatures, this will happen over the UK in the next 30 years (Ophelia being just a preview) 

gfs-0-90.png?6

FWIW this is well out of kilter with ukmo and ECM, and I would expect the latter models to be closer to the truth (UK impact, but dissipation as it arrives) 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

An interesting end to the GFS 06Z, which would result in snowfall over Scottish hills and some impressive convection, around coasts, should it verify::oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

The obvious fly-in-the-ointment being that, as per usual, the Operational ends as a cold outlier, regarding 2m temps:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Still -- it's a step in the right direction.:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Great commentary as always from you guys. Just been taking a look at the extended ECM ensembles, and firstly it seems that they are not as extreme with conditions for later next week!! The ensembles are a complete roller coaster ride with temperatures over the next 14 days... Roughly speaking, I would say we average temps from around 8-13C  from the Midlands South. The ensemble mean also shows SLP to be around 1017mb has we move towards mid month!! So I still feel we are on for a more settled spell by this stage. Cold crisp evenings and early mornings would wet the appetite for the winter to come in my opinion!! 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Considerable difference already between ICON and UKMO, here T72, T96 re path of Lorenzo:

image.thumb.jpg.2711708054639747399853517802b6e3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c68004fce851c6cc154868ac1c6760bd.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.7baf778bb2e429f412c1b5879e0693df.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8c846ca876a2afdfb0fe174e8e6e44d2.jpg

Interesting things afoot on the models, at various timescales.  Good to be back after a break from posting...

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

T96 on the 12s, and ARPEGE is on the UKMO page, whereas GFS and legacy side with the ICON, the track of this system vis-a-vis the UK is still wide open between T72 and T96, won't be sorted tonight...

image.thumb.jpg.3f22999dccdeb739dcfaf0f9aba579ce.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.cbc20aafff4901f6741ed343cd5e1649.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f97aaea8c21ada4403e5f2b15ef56648.jpg

Probably not much point analysing the output beyond the 4 day mark with this uncertainty, until it is resolved.

I think my bet is on the UKMO, ARPEGE solution being closer to reality but not by much, we will see...

Edit, GEM somewhere in the middle re Lorenzo track, but this one wafts the warm air advection into Greenland more directly, here NH view T96:

image.thumb.jpg.38378c20994b6b3de9271b8dc8ae8628.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 12z longer term there's more chance of an Indian summer than an early arctic outbreak, the mean as we head deeper into october looks quite benign / pleasant actually, at least across southern uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
16 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z longer term there's more chance of an Indian summer than an early arctic outbreak, the mean as we head deeper into october looks quite benign / pleasant actually, at least across southern uk.

bring it on Jon! but very uncertain and FI is brought forward due to ex hurricanes etc

and really no horrible Lorenzo? this run looks like for the bin

gfs-0-108.png?12

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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