Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[The Eagle]

Bye! 

[feb1991blizzard]

In fact the story of the 18z GFS isn't potent Northerlies like some runs have been, its potentially record breaking wind and rain - another storm late on.

[Mapantz]

If by some chance ex-Lorenzo impacts Ireland exactly as modelled, and you go by the aggregated mean wind speed, the equivalent wind speeds would be that of a category 1 hurricane. 81mph sustained showing up on the GFS.

Edited September 27, 2019 by Mapantz

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If by some chance ex-Lorenzo impacts Ireland exactly as modelled, and you go by the aggregated mean wind speed, the equivalent wind speeds would be that of a category 1 hurricane. 81mph sustained showing up on the GFS.

What does the top gust show?, can't make it out but looks over 100 to me.

[Mapantz]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What does the top gust show?, can't make it out but looks over 100 to me.

106mph. It then shows 90mph gusts slamming in to the Northwest of England.

The track reminds me very much of Ophelia, back on the 16th October 2017.

[The Eagle]

Long way to go but the similarities with Ophelia are striking (even though that path was east of the Azores).

[Snowy Hibbo]

Take a look at my fresh seasonal outlook. Looking at a +NAO in the models and a -NAO in some of the drivers.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/

• Early, good season for Japan, Eastern US and Europe.
• A decent season for California, a poor season for the PNW, Colorado slightly above average perhaps.
• Early Siberian High development, with a potential SSW later in the season.
• Nina-esque atmosphere, cool neutral-weak oceanic La Nina.
  
  EDIT:
  Please use the Seasonal Forecast Thread to respond/discuss this forecast. Thanks. BW.
  https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4084894
   

Edited September 28, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Member response guidance added

[Iceaxecrampon]

14 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Here's a few charts from the GEFS 6z to warm the cockles of all the Netweather coldies.. yes it's deep FI but that's a minor detail...winter is coming Gang..anyhoo, we don't have to wait until mid october for cold weather, next week looks colder!!!!!❄

 

 

......and windier. Have a look at GFS Thursday

[Jordan S]

This is the NAVGEM model probably the worst/best case scenario depending on what you like with what would be ex-hurricane lorenzo the approach is similar but there is a notable difference from ophelia the blocking high to the north of the UK effectively forces the remnants to push east through the UK as apposed to ophelia that headed mostly north through Ireland then a slight turn north east this would suggest the strongest winds for Ireland England and Wales this is ofcourse unlikely to verify at this intensity although the GFS is going with a similar track but the Gem and ECM are not in agreement atm seems the ECM has been picking up certain synoptics first then the other models have kind off followed it. Lots of uncertainty lies ahead thats what is certain.

NAVGEM..

Gfs.. 

 

[Jordan S]

Well the ECM seems to have now jumped on board with the GFS and NAVGEM which doesn't bode well for the UK but still could change.. 

[Methuselah]

It appears Lorenzo (or what's left of it) is about to put a major spanner in the works all right...?

GEFS 00Z ensembles:

   

   

With things looking particularly rough for Ireland!

     

[IDO]

Looks like the chances of an Indian Summer are diminishing with a pattern that is mobile and any mid-latitude ridges/blocking in the usual places (Pacific/Atlantic) nothing more than brief. Interestingly the jet is not that potent and the pattern is more to do with the high latitude (Arctic area) blocking that is channelling the lower pressure systems around them. No sign of any forcing to allow more permanent stationary wave activity.

The ex-hurricane looking more likely than not now for a direct hit and impact looks further south on the GEFS than the op:

One to watch.

[The Eagle]

 

Latest (10 am advisory) from NHC. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/280844.shtml?

Edited September 28, 2019 by The Eagle

[Summer Sun]

UKMO keeping the low much further south on Friday compared with ECM and GFS

ECM & GFS

 

[SMU]

Morning-

Concerning times for the UK especially Ireland as now the tracks of Lorenzo begin to converge on a smaller cone -

All models take the route that was intially touted by the ICON - up the SW approaches then the cone spreads, UKMO is the most south possibly impacting Northern France / Southern UK where as others still bend it further North.

A very chilly period, blocking remains in situ over Greenland, perhaps initially not quite as robust as before however there is still minimal motion NE of the jet ( more ESE ) indicating that another pulse of cold from the Arctic could hit around day 10-12, however thats a long way away.

NB the AO ensembles have now flipped to -VE

For once cold wont be the focus - a rare ( record breaking ) Eastern tracking Hurricane may be coming to visit...

S

Edited September 28, 2019 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

06z ICON is a chuck further south with Lorenzo track than 00z - that pitches it up probably as a direct hit to Ireland - maybe even the SW of the UK-

[shaky]

33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning-

Concerning times for the UK especially Ireland as now the tracks of Lorenzo begin to converge on a smaller cone -

All models take the route that was intially touted by the ICON - up the SW approaches then the cone spreads, UKMO is the most south possibly impacting Northern France / Southern UK where as others still bend it further North.

A very chilly period, blocking remains in situ over Greenland, perhaps initially not quite as robust as before however there is still minimal motion NE of the jet ( more ESE ) indicating that another pulse of cold from the Arctic could hit around day 10-12, however thats a long way away.

NB the AO ensembles have now flipped to -VE

For once cold wont be the focus - a rare ( record breaking ) Eastern tracking Hurricane may be coming to visit...

S

Icon 06z more amplified at 120 hours in the atlantic!!dunno what effect that will have on lorenzo

[Summer Sun]

In terms of later next week the beeb are saying the GFS track is most likely with ECM less likely

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

In terms of later next week the beeb are saying the GFS track is most likely with ECM less likely

I would be very surprised if there isn't a significant correction towards the ECM IMO, it would be unusual in these type of setups for the GFS to trump all other models and not over-deepen and track too far North.

[feb1991blizzard]

Doesn't look too much difference on these runs to be fair though.

 

[The Eagle]

Wouldn't be surprised if Met Eireann and the Met Office were in touch with NHC on potential impacts on Ire/UK respectively soon if not already. 

Still a way to go though.

GFS 6z consistent enough with the 00z regarding potential track.

 

Edited September 28, 2019 by The Eagle

[Midlander]

Just now, The Eagle said:

Wouldn't be surprised if Met Eireann and the Met Office were in touch with NHC on potential impacts on Ire/UK respectively soon if not already. 

Still a way to go though.

Forgive my ignorance, but wouldn’t it be a normal area of low pressure by that point so why would the NHC be interested?

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Forgive my ignorance, but wouldn’t it be a normal area of low pressure by that point so why would the NHC be interested?

Transitioning Tropical Storm, same as Hurricane Ophelia for example. They won't provide updates when fully transitioned. 

NHC was providing regular updates right up to landfall. 

Edited September 28, 2019 by The Eagle

[carinthian]

Most of the main models show colder polar maritime airmass over much of NW Europe by the middle of next week. Eventually a cut off low to form over Adriatic. So heavy rainfall amounts expected in the Alpine Region with snowfall on the North Alps by Thursday. Still lots of doubt about the track of the ex tropical hurricane, so further changes in the model outputs can be expected soon, especially as it has now being downgraded during the past few hours with the eye eroding. Anyway first frosts of the season this coming week for some of you and from my view will be looking carefully at our snow model predictions on Monday morning.

C

[emmett garland]

Its picking up speed as it moves northeast and would be anything but a normal low with potentially damaging gusts but yes still a way to go yet and for me living in Ireland Ill be watching this one closely

Edited September 28, 2019 by emmett garland