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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Defo a cold snap next week; but, until then, there's little if any downward pressure on the CET, relative to the long-term mean? After that, it all goes a little FI, with T850s ranging from -6 to +18C (post 11/10) looking like harbingers of increasing downstream uncertainty...?

t850Suffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

It might rain on October 1st, too!:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Ed Stone said:

Great chart, wrong month!

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

miles out though, but never 'wrong' month if dry, Aye would be great from May to Sept

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well I've been chasing plumes for months but now we're past the Autumnal equinox i'm chasing / hunting cold and the GEFS 12z is sniffing around the idea of something from the arctic which would have some bite even in october...and before that possibility, next week is set to become colder from the north for a time following a very wet and windy sunday for many.☔☔☔

10_360_850tmp.thumb.png.90b37e4c4a7c06f85dc4c75e60360b7a.png11_312_850tmp.thumb.png.7a95a88fde473e73f1cc0f88b4fe3f20.png21_102_500mb.thumb.png.89ee9b20588efde9cecde96ae1e20cdd.png21_102_850tmp.thumb.png.8369fe8f7d0b99b11b2e6ab585759a68.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

There's even more scatter than usual, on today's GEFS 12Z ensembles...or is there?

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

I wish we could flash-forward into December!:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Just now, LRD said:

Hi all, could be fun seeing the frames between T144 and T168, might still be very windy in the SW as it moves in. Rainfall amounts could be quite impressive! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS control gives us a direct hit from the Arctic!

image.thumb.png.78ff91ef38a01270990accda3a77bf7b.png

Incredible run that for October. But an outlier too. After a very boring first two-thirds of September, things are beginning to get interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Is it possible to define what you mean by gives us a direct hit? is that just your area or is it the entire UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Is it possible to define what you mean by gives us a direct hit? is that just your area or is it the entire UK?

Lets have a closer look,that looks pretty windy.

ECU1-168.thumb.gif.cab61d9f910fdece6c0d558cf8ddef75.gif

if it was to come off.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The end of the ECM run then gives Scotland and NI a gale and a lot of nothingness further South and SE

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

But until Lorenzo's track is sorted anything after that timescale is probably not worth worrying about

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS control gives us a direct hit from the Arctic!

image.thumb.png.78ff91ef38a01270990accda3a77bf7b.png

The control is some what consistent,i posted it yesterday evening and looks very similar

run that chart to 300 hrs 850hpa temps and you get this,-4 isotherm down past the south coast,bonkers for September,sorry,October. 

gensnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.e65c5ae9f93af360733f13f8b7a624ed.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

While still being a few days out, the likes of the 12Z UKMO, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM in general agree to the weather settling down a bit during the middle of next week, as some mid-Atlantic ridging (likely to be transient) develops over the UK. 
 

12Z UKMO

09F02571-C2CA-4B6D-99F6-D9844024AF63.thumb.png.42d3ccb5b23e519ba01f4a9903e73277.png

3D54859E-6111-4CB6-84E3-2E0DB272DAB9.thumb.png.2d1f57b76669a36d000c9ff5288e25e1.png
 

12Z GFS

96252E36-5AF9-4FAA-B444-93FAD770632D.thumb.png.e88a711f6ced474f69d61667b82dae29.png5B7E39DA-B5E7-4DCD-83DF-55F4B66E1F69.thumb.png.35d074cba5aa49e48cd0216364ceb0d2.png

12Z GEM

18ECCCAA-5A58-4A94-9E7D-3C1DE11F3DB0.thumb.png.529d5df6eaa9a1e918e8ab688503fe16.png2C7FC14A-7D81-424E-AF8F-0BEC63DF7AF3.thumb.png.33b80a71d5d1f7a3cbe9076f1fc0495e.png
 

12Z ECMWF

2B9E2EE0-718B-411F-9DF1-9C8A58AE3481.thumb.png.36611c2b2848e666249dbb0f2eda2b49.png6A327CDA-1E08-42AB-86DA-567291D309CC.thumb.png.c2823dc5a5b48d3efe4d0397448849a9.png
 

Some showers can’t be ruled out towards North-Eastern areas next week in the cool North-Westerly to Northerly wind, and some rain, which could be accompanied by strong winds as some speak about, may move into Western areas next Thursday. But the speed, timing and angle of any unsettled weather from the West/South-West later next week, does depend how that likely storm to the South-West of the UK ridging behaves. For now, a (temporary) period for some drier, less unsettled weather looks possible for that middle part of next week.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Added ‘which could be accompanied by strong winds’
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control is some what consistent,i posted it yesterday evening and looks very similar

run that chart to 300 hrs 850hpa temps and you get this,-4 isotherm down past the south coast,bonkers for September,sorry,October. 

gensnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.e65c5ae9f93af360733f13f8b7a624ed.png

 

Bonkers cold here. Bonkers warmth in the West of the USA

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, LRD said:

Bonkers cold here. Bonkers warmth in the West of the USA

that makes a change,we need this repeating pattern to continue into the winter months.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

that makes a change,we need this repeating pattern to continue into the winter months.

Yes caution urged, The best Northerly since the snowy late October 2008 was in 2013, and that certainly was not a precursor pattern to the next winter where i can't remember a break from West / South-Westerlies throughout the whole meteorological winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes caution urged, The best Northerly since the snowy late October 2008 was in 2013, and that certainly was not a precursor pattern to the next winter where i can't remember a break from West / South-Westerlies throughout the whole meteorological winter.

There was a northerly in October 2013? There certainly was in 2012; that winter was considerably better.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
33 minutes ago, MP-R said:

There was a northerly in October 2013? There certainly was in 2012; that winter was considerably better.

Yes, there was a northerly in October 2008, 2010 and 2012, all three were followed by some decent and at times bitter cold and snow.

Not unusual to see northerlies in October, can often happen more so than during June-Sept period and also November to think of that - indeed getting a northerly in November is very difficult nowadays it seems.

Back to the models, expect further changes from day to day as the models play around with ex hurricane Lorenzo and how it interacts with the jet and programmed strong heights to the north. Its quite probable it may become a slow moving feature anchored to our NW, thanks in part to heights to the north east, and in time might be forced to swing through SE as it weakens - hence we could see the following pattern to start October - northerly, ridge, south westerly, cyclonic, back to northerly - a real mix of everything.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
1 hour ago, LRD said:

The end of the ECM run then gives Scotland and NI a gale and a lot of nothingness further South and SE

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

But until Lorenzo's track is sorted anything after that timescale is probably not worth worrying about

Well just a few days ago the general pattern for early Oct did seem to suggest a shift more towards anticyclonic conditions. As is often the case the models can have a tendency to drop this only to revert back to it again in a relatively short period of time. This I think is what we may be witnessing here again with heights to the south as shown on the latter stages of the 12z Ecm introducing another benign spell of relatively mild weather. :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

Well just a few days ago the general pattern for early Oct did seem to suggest a shift more towards anticyclonic conditions. As is often the case the models can have a tendency to drop this only to revert back to it again in a relatively short period of time. This I think is what we may be witnessing here again with heights to the south as shown on the latter stages of the 12z Ecm introducing another benign spell of relatively mild weather. :whistling:

Bye Bye Ireland.

image.thumb.png.9ebb69105495c98fd4f0d6527e17d6aa.png

 

image.thumb.png.d8cff2b5136414386e719ccb9d450e21.png

 

image.thumb.png.2217dcb195c370d620499bb7f4af4c45.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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