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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I don't think people are banging the winter drum just yet but stating what the models are showing and why not especially the control run in it's latter stages,the NH profile does look nice and would send this forum into meltdown if we where nearer the winter months.

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.6f37a52990a1778d8972953ae00e1907.pnganim_uaf4.thumb.gif.291996ad8100e0f1564d5fec8258ed00.gif

a cross polar flow there with the main chunk of the pv over on the Siberian side,but the really is that we see this kind of charts at this time of the year nearly every year when the pv hasn't even woke up yet.

P.S welcome back TI

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Certainly tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean has a look of winter about it for a time next week, especially for the north!.

EDM1-72.thumb.gif.3aaf353e83eb53abbfcd8c481124cf86.gifEDM0-96.thumb.gif.bca9d7197d34f3b426e813efda32168b.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.d00a9827a455f6ce510f4454eee21937.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.8c59d20aa20b37cc215eb8f52346fa86.gif

EDM1-144.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Karl, cold for a time.... Perhaps somewhat of a N/S split devoloping later with high pressure having perhaps more influence further South... Could this possibly set us up for a more settled spell towards mid month... With decent days, and coldish nights! All along way of, but, perhaps a decent possibility.

EDM1-216 (1).gif

EDM1-240 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
18 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

yep welcome back @tight isobar another 8 months trying to work out what any of your posts mean!!! can we have it in plane old english this winter??

No

i like his text's/posts the way they are,i like his thinking/knowledge and his humor

keep it up TI

not to derail this thread,the latest from cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb outlook shows heights building into Greenland suppressing the trough in the Atlantic further south,so looking unsettled later in time

610day_03.thumb.gif.9eaab78308cecdd51b8c58dd4051384e.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.c9524d5c05bc46018319c5f153ef505a.gif

The North Atlantic oscillation is in neg territory at the moment hence no Atlantic onslaught at the moment but recovering later on. 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f44d69a0316fb6c56dc0a585f515a437.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Looking at the 850's across the NH, that really is an impressive cool down over a 10 day period!

Today vs 6 October

image.thumb.png.0fc5a3ff523abf5b4b0e7881e8f8626b.pngimage.thumb.png.10beb8f26e2657cbf4ad2fd6d867dde1.png  

Far too early to get excited from a UK perspective, but nice to see all the same (if cold is your thing?!)

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
45 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No

i like his text's/posts the way they are,i like his thinking/knowledge and his humor

keep it up TI

not to derail this thread,the latest from cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day 500mb outlook shows heights building into Greenland suppressing the trough in the Atlantic further south,so looking unsettled later in time

610day_03.thumb.gif.9eaab78308cecdd51b8c58dd4051384e.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.c9524d5c05bc46018319c5f153ef505a.gif

The North Atlantic oscillation is in neg territory at the moment hence no Atlantic onslaught at the moment but recovering later on. 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.f44d69a0316fb6c56dc0a585f515a437.gif

 

Aye but the NAO is hardly a roaring positive, it's positive but nobbut just...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
24 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Aye but the NAO is hardly a roaring positive, it's positive but nobbut just...

I did say recovering,maybe i should of stated into neutral territory.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I did say recovering,maybe i should of stated into neutral territory.

Aye but I'm a fan of it staying thus!

Edited by JeffC
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
11 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Andd.     .

It's high time to fall off that now cracked summer fence!!!

 

I can't remember tbh being quite so exited by the very early prog/early notions sliding into the vastness/madness..of our deceiptful/-sometimes -comical winter months!!

 

A pretty basic 1 for starts.

But my eye is taken via many factors as we slowly roll in..

But the immediate shunt..is the northern hemisphere snow forms.

Taking the oceanic stills and likely formats as we progress..

The the evolving 'likely' strains on pressure squeeze into the upper/higher latts..it's certainly spiking early interest!!.

 

In simple terms 'right NOW'..

The extent...And cover formats will hold a high sign for us/those seeking early preference to 'perhaps' a good shape going IN!!

 

Hi Tight Isobar, good to see you! Always enjoy reading your posts. The SAI is always a favourite at this time of year for predicting the upcoming winter. In your opinion, how reliable is it as a predictor? It certainly isn't a busted flush like the OPI but how well does it verify in terms of reliability? Any of our other experts feel free to pitch in too, I do like a good discussion about such factors! (sorry I deleted some of your post, just did so for ease of scrolling and avoiding tl;dr )

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Time to dig out those canoes and kayaks folks...

image.thumb.png.426dde484a2761050362fd92f239e870.png

Nowhere really escapes the rain in the next 10 days, with some very large totals falling in Wales, N/NW England and N Ireland. Flooding will be an issue, no doubt about that.

The signal for higher pressure developing into October is also fading into the ether:

image.thumb.png.97aecbe609a41bd6ee0c357793a1cb29.png

A lot of this is down to Lorenzo tracking into the mid latitudes and adding a hand grenade of energy into the Atlantic and really adding some bite into the jet:

image.thumb.png.175f8f0e3c657dcc683d26d6ffe97023.pngimage.thumb.png.060d867e5a6b02f42b82a151ad336003.png

Plenty of unsettled weather for the UK for the next 10-14 days.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Time to dig out those canoes and kayaks folks...

image.thumb.png.426dde484a2761050362fd92f239e870.png

Nowhere really escapes the rain in the next 10 days, with some very large totals falling in Wales, N/NW England and N Ireland. Flooding will be an issue, no doubt about that.

The signal for higher pressure developing into October is also fading into the ether:

image.thumb.png.97aecbe609a41bd6ee0c357793a1cb29.png

A lot of this is down to Lorenzo tracking into the mid latitudes and adding a hand grenade of energy into the Atlantic and really adding some bite into the jet:

image.thumb.png.175f8f0e3c657dcc683d26d6ffe97023.pngimage.thumb.png.060d867e5a6b02f42b82a151ad336003.png

Plenty of unsettled weather for the UK for the next 10-14 days.

Looks like a southerly tracking jet and  northern blocking aswell!doubt its gone feel too mild either!!horrible combination!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning.

ICON slays the ECM again.

ECM 00z 168 yesterday V 144 today -

No ridge yesterday & a fast return to a +NAO

Today almost the match to the ICON in terms of Greenland ridge with vertical WAA

C9AD11FF-E9E9-4AE6-82AD-9C48F24339D2.thumb.jpeg.0affe468824a79984111f8a6611e5101.jpeg

4DF06A11-D80E-41BF-B1D5-706340ADBC57.thumb.jpeg.3f48cc9606d96234e1de1eb3e07d73a3.jpeg

Todays ECM 168 places lorenzo for the undercut in exactly the same place as ICON had it yesterday.

( not good news for Ireland )

81790CBA-73CC-46F7-BD71-DE0DA5E1777A.thumb.jpeg.8f497534ffb1011525f56b36e857a8ff.jpeg

Very unusual charts for early October. The block now under cutting an ex hurricane ! ( re latest ECM and Icon holding the same prediction )  Still some time off of course but UKMO at 144h looks quite resilient regarding holding heights to the north. Thought over here is still for lows to track on a more southerly projection. I would say very interesting model watching this weekend. Batten down the hatches for you southerners on Sunday !

c

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Posted
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, preferably thunderstorms, cold and bad weather.
  • Location: Musselburgh, East Lothian; 20m elevation.

Long-time lurker, first-time poster. I suppose I'm mostly joining so I can block one or two of the more 'poetic' contributors to this thread. Also, the autumn transition is probably my favourite time of year, especially with the likes of Lorenzo menacing us (and the models) from afar.

Generally though, huge thanks to all of the very knowledgeable contributors, and to the rest of you, yes we know it's too early for cold/no, winter's not over yet, shush. [delete as appropriate]

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
19 minutes ago, legritter said:

Hi gang , great to read all the posts although i have been a lurker of late .finaly sorted my life out after the passing of my late wife 2 yrs ago .Looks like some real action weather over the coming 10 days .have a feeling in my water things could get very interesting ,take care all .

Good to see you back Legritter.

Could be an interesting Winter I feel.

Hopefully some Stellar model runs to come

:drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Hi folks... Next week we may get a lull in proceedings around mid week, before deep low pressure takes over later next week and weekend... Looks like there could be some serious disruption from wind and rainfall amounts. Its not going to be feeling to warm either!! Also some great cold pooling to our N/NW at this stage... Long may it continue. On a passing note.... Good to see you still posting @legritter...sorry for your loss mate.. Stay strong. Enjoy your day folks. 

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-1-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
5 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning.

ICON slays the ECM again.

ECM 00z 168 yesterday V 144 today -

No ridge yesterday & a fast return to a +NAO

Today almost the match to the ICON in terms of Greenland ridge with vertical WAA

C9AD11FF-E9E9-4AE6-82AD-9C48F24339D2.thumb.jpeg.0affe468824a79984111f8a6611e5101.jpeg

4DF06A11-D80E-41BF-B1D5-706340ADBC57.thumb.jpeg.3f48cc9606d96234e1de1eb3e07d73a3.jpeg

Todays ECM 168 places lorenzo for the undercut in exactly the same place as ICON had it yesterday.

( not good news for Ireland )

81790CBA-73CC-46F7-BD71-DE0DA5E1777A.thumb.jpeg.8f497534ffb1011525f56b36e857a8ff.jpeg

Thats a fair point, but how do you know todays 0Z ECMWF will be proven correct against yesterdays 0Z ECMWF output before saying that ICON has slayed ECMWF, i see most of the GEFS ensembles that dont undercut Lorenzo south of Ireland like the models that are referenced on your images. I dont say that the block isnt there anymore,but there are still so many options on the table that its ridiculous to say now which run has slated which.. 

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