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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Predominantly unsettled for the foreseeable, with the trough dominating in the main, despite signs of some temporary ridge development early next week. Some high rainfall totals for many, temps slightly above average until end of the week, becoming average for a time, then probably above again - but not especially so. Very typical fayre for the time of year, when we would expect the atlantic to have some energy about it. Interesting to note though heights wanting to build to the north, and the trough coming unstuck somewhat. Its not the time of year for such heights to hold off the atlantic, air not cold and dense enough but if this was latter part of autumn, I'd wager the block would kick the jet aside and force it underneath.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Gee whizz...that pressure goes low on the GEFS 12Zs!:shok:

prmslSuffolk.png   

 

Its just the op thats unusually low really, 990 isn't that low for the time of year but 970 is.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Longer term the GEFS 12z mean suggests higher pressure building in across southern uk bringing a more benign / settled spell during the period between early / mid october. The recovery begins later next week with a trend towards more of a north / south split but there is currently potential according to some of the 12z members for a proper anticyclonic spell as we head deeper into October which would bring sunshine, especially the afternoons but an increasing chance of overnight mist / fog and even slight frosts. In the meantime, there's plenty more unsettled weather to come.

21_342_500mb.thumb.png.c403b77bbb1d2b9c380665202495947d.png21_378_500mb.thumb.png.ce75e761c0dd0fe6c71b38080bdba103.png8_378_500mb.thumb.png.046f16aa63571afb2e59baac54681e84.png9_378_500mb.thumb.png.a06227e8fdbed0fec03666459fd6a78e.png16_378_500mb.thumb.png.688e59da498ce8215c5e2e3909e87bf2.png19_378_500mb.thumb.png.6e2adbc73a0715642172f5c8dac1298f.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM has the high edging in by day 9, but the models aren’t handling TS (soon to be hurricane) Lorenzo well at the moment. Depends on how it recurves around the high. We could end up with literally anything from settled weather to gales and a lot of rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm not for a minute suggesting this is how this is going to play out but it's fascinating how the ecm is handling the interaction of Lorenzo with the Atlantic trough and the jet whilst amplification is taking place downstream

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9931200.thumb.png.a0fddeabe2bcec687a40b04692ed77aa.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0017600.thumb.png.b2e5b4f81eeb9ca2b344ce790d922290.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0125600.thumb.png.42693d8a99dad84ce20630c86dca8f61.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-0125600.thumb.png.23a257cef46a919af39b8402aafcab94.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm not sure ECM wants to give up on summer just yet! Hints of high pressure building and those temps rising come the end of next week!! Would be cool at night, and misty early mornings, but afternoons could turn out warm if this proves correct..... One last heatwave before winter starts perhaps!!!

ECM1-168 (1).gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

That last Euro chart highlights how even one last heatwave (probably more low twenties) can be deceptive. We are now sorrounded by swathes of cool uppers which would invariably end up drawn in over time.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

That last Euro chart highlights how even one last heatwave (probably more low twenties) can be deceptive. We are now sorrounded by swathes of cool uppers which would invariably end up drawn in over time.

Yes the high would arise under quite cool uppers, and the orientation as shown doesn't show any significant warm uppers, and the cool/cold nights even would have quite an effect - indeed I'd go as far as to say such an evolution would produce below average means, given we would be in October. Maxima initially would be more like mid teens at best.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
27 minutes ago, knocker said:

Lorenzo track with the GEFS and EPS

12_es1.thumb.png.fba53a699a58a55e72aaf980d669605e.png12_es3.thumb.png.08ff7fec920939368c055c8a0f076c71.png

Great images knocker. I tend to stick to NOAA for hurricane tracking, so don't really know how successful these are. Can you advise?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
5 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Great images knocker. I tend to stick to NOAA for hurricane tracking, so don't really know how successful these are. Can you advise?

Only to the extent it indicates the amount of uncertainty vis the track of Lorenzo in this quite unusual situation and that isn't taking into account the intensity. fascinating stuff though.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

For a change the North Atlantic 300mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-9369600.thumb.png.c7fe1ca5d046f504531add179bfa162b.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.2af11eaafb219f1e36c146c4de357b87.gif

A murky start to the day for most areas with plenty of showery rain still around in the south, where it will remain quite breezy for a time, and southern Scotland and northern England. This will tend to die out through the day but persisting to some extent in Scotland and north east England. Sunny intervals will develop so generally a tad pleasanter than of late as the myriad of troughs/fronts clear away to the east. But by dusk the next frontal system will bring more continuous moderate rain into N. Ireland and patchy stuff into Wales and the south west of England

PPVE89.thumb.gif.b22968b7c731095643885c5031bd7bd4.gifsfcgust_d02_16.thumb.png.a93428f49813c1f56b555b5a9679f4d0.png2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.e3605e55b9e5f742602a9f9eb9b37c72.png

meanreflec_d02_12.thumb.png.89030b9ccaa220379825057a071c6247.pngmeanreflec_d02_16.thumb.png.a3c9d576e1eaa6b3531bf7d5c111254c.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.b5cc2f440280d57e0dfa9c28af8592e4.png

The moderate rain will sweep across the country through this evening and overnight as the frontal system moves rapidly east, with some quite heavy pulses, probably more concentrated in the N/NW near the triple point. Frequent showers in the wake of the cold front

PPVG89.thumb.gif.a9f948e9291b9d858ec1ea40ae40d90d.gifprecip_d02_28.thumb.png.ee52581a8910104eef2b2ca75a0575df.pngprecip_d02_32.thumb.png.c39f7714ffc504059efdcf3c97bae80b.pngprecip_d02_35.thumb.png.3b0d9727814c7c11b2e5af7789782d57.pngprecip_d02_38.thumb.png.e157ede62233bd11be3c79a6dfd926d4.png

The frontal rain will clear Thursday morning leaving the country within the circulation of the low pressure now centred to the west thus a day of sunshine and squally showers

PPVI89.thumb.gif.ec3ee46582b88c7da42aa2ffd130d8e4.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.8e7f2bf643048a19864855bdfe30bbe9.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.399ec0069a8f0fa4bb390c41110d7ffa.png

Over Thursday night and through Friday the quite complex  low meanders slowly north east resulting in another day day of sunshine and squally showers

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.3a09d2a8ebfe93508f0535a557f9f05d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.d3b3061cb304a460db41c870f031b42c.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-9607200.thumb.png.1b89afb9b4a4a03fea4cef7b54eda813.png

This is the NH profile by midday Saturday which illustrates the cheeky trough that has sneaked around the top of the Greenland block. And on the surface a very transient ridge over the UK as our low continues to drift NE but another system is waiting in the wings to the south west. Again a sunshine and showers day.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9672000.thumb.png.8eb0ed952200c1fddbadc1076fde6c0e.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.e9fa0aea6bbf03c6fceac6d9e693e886.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-9693600.thumb.png.bd66731306e8d44e786f750d3661f283.png

By Sunday the aforementioned trough is sinking south to phase with our trough as high pressure ridges into the Arctic and on the surface the system to the south west has  tracked north east to bring rain and strong winds, predominately to England and Wales.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9758400.thumb.png.ef4d5c48f513469528b5a0c50a6d44c0.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.efa5f05166c1170f82cabb78b3582087.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-9780000.thumb.png.9fc5b6cb68be0266e43b4c5f39a69bdb.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Next week is going to be tricky because much depends how, and if, Lorenzo interacts with the jet

So, according to the gfs, by T144 there is now a major trough over Europe with a northerly feed and a conduit across the Atlantic under the Greenland block along which troughs can travel with Lorenzo lurking to the south

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9888000.thumb.png.7df7d14788902564eb4bb65d53e98401.png

Over the next 48 hours it develops thus which basically boils down to continuing unsettled but certainly not without clearer spells. But best left here considering the opening sentence

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9888000.thumb.png.29134193d3939ee73e95a0d4298bf89d.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9974400.thumb.png.9ad6f3fef8bdb3c34ac2101bbbba7c6c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has Lorenzo being absorbed by the Atlantic upper trough resulting in a very complex arrangement affecting the jet with some downstream amplification of the subtropical high Of course this is subject to change

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9974400.thumb.png.21baacb875dc8ad1600b01ba4456cfd9.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0060800.thumb.png.58c210d8e9daf5f26e97395d7923c06f.pngecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0104000.thumb.png.7a5f5261a550ee2ad72fd7f09af8fc0f.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-0082400.thumb.png.8356ceecd065fcef706012db7edba9b8.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 0z perhaps we are not finished with summer yet!!!..there are some plumey early october members!!:shok:

0_306_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.c1005fb936d9c746ed0859ccb2040ef0.png0_306_850tmp.thumb.png.fe472d019b3b18f1b37685aa7d8157f0.png0_330_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.9fda753d1cc53210e114bee9f19677ce.png0_330_850tmp.thumb.png.a38f4ae1396b598459a44d169032e1f8.png13_378_850tmp.thumb.png.26702aea400e086f28259b5310ec3729.png16_378_850tmp.thumb.png.8436fd880b55ca299fed2ec74a264e6f.png16_378_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.1c3bc22c3908c13c3b2c5dcd6d6f76c9.png169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.thumb.jpg.cae556d42189e45cd77cd44fee53576e.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Apart from the extent of very warm air, over the southern part of mainland Europe, nothing at T+384 (GFS 00Z) looks all that out-of-the-ordinary for early to mid October...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And the GEFS 00Z ensembles suggest that, Blighty-wise, everything is still up in the air:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 0z perhaps we are not finished with summer yet!!!..there are some plumey early october members!!:shok:

 

2019 - the year of the plumes?!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Some lovely charts on show this morning if cold and frost is what you like!!shame it isnt November or December!!lets hope we continue to see such charts churned out heading into late october and a sluggish polar vortex!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

With a 75mb spread in SLP and an 18C spread in T850s, one could hardly refer to the GEFS 06Z ensembles as 'tightly knit bunch'...It all looks like a forecaster's nightmare...?

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Not suggesting any link between now and December, but I did see two hedgehogs behaving strangely, yesterday!:oldgood:

Edited by Ed Stone
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