Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[Methuselah]

October looks like starting on a typically autumnal note, to me...one run's frigid Arctic blast being replaced by the next's spell of 15C+ 850s, and so on and so forth...The noise drowning-out the signal?

GEFS 00Z ensembles:

   

   

It'll almost certainly rain, though!

[knocker]

26 minutes ago, LRD said:

I know your preference is for a nothing, pretty boring sort of weather type

In all fairness I'm not quite sure how you know what my preferences are as I don't remember airing them on here. Perhaps I may have given a certain impression as ! do attempt to balance the posts from all those that have had confirmation bias implants

Anyway some quick build up of some interesting Cumulus this morning down here on the fresh southerly

Oh and the ext EPS this morning

Edited September 21, 2019 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Good news for coldies, the Ecm hasn't dropped the cold plunge from yesterday's 12z, just variations on the same theme, it's still there on the 0z and hopefully it will verify and repeat over and over again when winter comes!! ..and it's coming!!!.. also good news for the parched southeast and east anglia with very welcome rain on the way tomorrow and throughout next week!!

 

[knocker]

As mentioned earlier cloud creeping in here courtesy of the odd trough preceding the cold front. But now non convective with a Sc layer

Edited September 21, 2019 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The colder blast at the end of ECM isn't well-supported by the ens thankfully a downward trend as is to be expected this time of year but nothing like the Op

London

Southern Scotland

[Zak M]

The most recent FAX charts give a hint of very wet weather to the majority of the British Isles. A lot of low pressure systems are currently lying in the Atlantic, all waiting to arrive here and cause chaos.

A low pressure system to the west of Ireland is going to sweep across Britain on Sunday. There are currently a few thunderstorms in front of the bands of rain from an elevated instability plume. 

On Tuesday the remains of Ex-Humberto will bring heavy rain and wind to the UK.

It's quite uncertain about what will happen after Tuesday, although because of those systems in the Atlantic, they are most likely still going to bring heavy rain and windy weather. Not a nice week next week if you ask me.

[LRD]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

In all fairness I'm not quite sure how you know what my preferences are as I don't remember airing them on here. Perhaps I may have given a certain impression as ! do attempt to balance the posts from all those that have had confirmation bias implants

Anyway some quick build up of some interesting Cumulus this morning down here on the fresh southerly

Oh and the ext EPS this morning

There is no need to get defensive. But, after 42,000 posts it's clear what you prefer and - I'll repeat myself just in case it got lost originally - THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT

That ext EPS chart will, ultimately (hopefully), leave the door open for that low anomaly to transfer to the UK and give the SE desert some much needed rain

Edited September 21, 2019 by LRD

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

There is no need to get defensive. But, it's clear what you prefer and - I'll repeat myself just in case it got lost originally - THERE'S NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT

That ext EPS chart will, ultimately (hopefully), leave the door open for that low anomaly to transfer to the UK and give the SE desert some much needed rain

Excuse me I wasn't being defensive, merely clarify my position, This is a necessity in here because preferences, whatever they are, have no place in objective model discussion. I'll stop now as some pigs have just flown past

[Polar Maritime]

And on the that note let's please move swiftly back to Discussing the Model Outputs, Thank you all.

[LRD]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Excuse me I wasn't being defensive, merely clarify my position, This is a necessity in here because preferences, whatever they are, have no place in objective model discussion. I'll stop now as some pigs have just flown past

Fair enough mate. I get what you're saying

It's just a bunch of weather enthusiasts on here rather than professionals so, as I say, I've no problem with bias or lack of objectivity. I've learned to bear in mind who is posting what in the model discussion thread and then make my own call on the credibility of what's being said

For fear of drifting off topic, I'll leave it there.

So, according to most models, a week or 10 days of unsettled weather and then a chance of it becoming drier into next month

Edited September 21, 2019 by LRD

[Frosty.]

There's plenty of rain on  the Gfs 6z operational for tomorrow and next week which is good news for the parched s / se and there's even an Arctic blast for the far north with snow and frosts.❄...

 

Edited September 21, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Zs suggest an unsettled, mild SW'erly dominated next two weeks, with very few cold nights being indicated:

   

   

I'm guessing that warm nights and a generally windy spell would tend to reduce the size of any downward adjustment to September's CET, if anything...?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Absolutely gorgeous day today, really does feel like high summer. Big changes tomorrow and beyond, plenty of rain and wind on offer over the coming 7 or so days! I think Summer Sun mentioned the ensemble mean not looking to bad moving forward. It looks like the op was very much on the cold side! As we move into October, the mean is around 6C,and the SLP around 1015....so nothing to severe lurking just yet. On a final note to the poster who said we are all enthusiasts on here.... I would say there are some posters on here with professional backgrounds, and there are definitely some posters who are as knowledgeable as the pros. But I would just like to add, I wouldn't include myself in that category.... Enjoy your days folks. 

[knocker]

A good example of the changing airmass as the upper trough edges in from the west. Dry as a bone on the Camborne sounding yesterday but much different today with some solid medium cloud above the lower layer

[knocker]

Compared to the last few days this evening and overnight the weather is quite complex

It has been another sunny and warm day in most areas but light rain from the trough that is preceding the cold front is already into the south west. This band will continue to track east though this evening and overnight with perhaps some thundery out breaks to be be followed by the much heavier band on the cold front where heavier pulses and thundery out breaks are more likely

[knocker]

According to the gfs the next amplification gets underway on Weds with a dying Jerry merging with the trough

Which eventually leads to the upper trough stalling in the vicinity of the UK over next weekend and simultaneously opening a conduit to colder air to the north

 

Edited September 21, 2019 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

What a magnificent beast the GFS12z is, at the very least there should be a chill to the wind. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

What a magnificent beast the GFS12z is, at the very least there should be a chill to the wind. 

Yes, its a stonker!

Snow possible in Scotland.

[summer blizzard]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, its a stonker!

Snow possible in Scotland.

Probably OTT outside the Highlands, any onshore flow even with cool uppers is still going over 10C+ waters at this time of year. 

But we should see some cool maxima and minima.

To bring it back round to the models, the question is whether the pattern can repeat. 

[knocker]

Foehn at Valley today?

http://meteocentre.com/surface-weather-station/metar-synop.php?ids=EGOV%3A03302&type=tab&lang=en&stn=EGOV&map=uk&syn=03302

 

Edited September 21, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

The GFS op actually has some support although at the extreme end of the suite but not a rank outlier at any point though, looks like one of those all or nothing setups, either very cold or very warm, where the ensemble mean may not be of much use, haven't looked individually but presumably down to where the trough drops.

[Methuselah]

Looks to me as if the GEFS Operational (for the start of October) has simply changed places, among the ensembles, again? In the last couple of days, it's gone from almost the coldest run to almost the warmest and back again several times, already; so, no coherent signal would be my interpretation/guess...?

    

    

But, whether it ends up being warm, cold, or somewhere in the middle, it looks likely to provide some much-needed rainfall, to those areas that most need it...

[northwestsnow]

Ec bringing Oct in on a cold note!

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec bringing Oct in on a cold note!

 

Indeed, especially up north..arctic incursion!

[knocker]

For the time being skipping the next two or three days and by midday Weds the aforementioned amplification is well underway with the major trough in mid Atlantic linked to the TPV and trough northern Russia. Unsettled over the UK with periods of rain

Over the next 48 hours the trough moves east but further amplification slows it down over the UK resulting in a wet and windy end to the week

Over the weekend energy flows around the now blocking high cell over Greenland disrupt any suggestion of the subtropical high zones merging and create a neutrally aligned trough down over the country leading to a wet and windy weekend as well

Edited September 21, 2019 by knocker