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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Tonight's GEFS 12Zs are nae bad; temps still look reasonable, for the time-of-year?:oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Well, it sure beats 9C and screaming drizzle!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Geez if there is a shallow cold pool to our NE causing such an argument in September then how bad will things get if there is a deep cold pool to our NE in December?

The cold pool to our NE has been developing as a result of the high pressure cell over the UK which has encouraged the movement of cool uppers  from the Arctic over this region.. As this backs east the UK gets a warm southerly and this looks like pumping up warm air all towards Greenland. The knock effect of this is a developing high pressure cell to our north which would support the movement of those colder uppers westwards.

However a lot of uncertainty up until then and I suspect Hurricane Jerry may have a big say on what kind of pattern transpires if it recurves in the North Atlantic basin.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The model output suggests otherwise.

Look at the ECM & GEM high pressure retrograde all the way to Greenland.

I have already posted the ecm as an example of the ridge deconstructing under pressure from the combined energy flows and thus creating a high cell to the NW. I appreciate you have not the slightest interest in my opinion but I fail to why your misrepresentations should go unchallenged

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

No beating about the bush, the GEFS 12z mean looks more cyclonic than anticyclonic next week so an unsettled and cooler spell is indicated but looking into the start of October it MIGHT become a lot more pleasant!!

3_336_500mb.thumb.png.b41610a2afbb6fe591c1651bd6509afc.png9_336_500mb.thumb.png.92dcdc91098b2c23eec32bdcf03d8c64.png13_366_500mb.thumb.png.8247e2a730541faded2f4a6f98802e73.png14_378_850tmp.thumb.png.56045954ece5bcbee50f148ee9c19676.png14_378_500mb.thumb.png.c63035bec79e7762db022493b9db6736.png17_336_500mb.thumb.png.46698c2cebadd4d3f91ac2dbd7becac5.png21_336_500mb.thumb.png.6e11ac7b56c2dcb0574ab889510d1201.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Certainly a very unusual pattern for Sept ( late sep at that ) where the jet stream beginning to fire up to second / third gear -

Hardly. Quite standard stuff now we’re essentially at the autumn equinox. More likely now than earlier on in the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Certainly a very unusual pattern for Sept ( late sep at that ) where the jet stream beginning to fire up to second / third gear -

A retrograde high supporting a unseasonal cold pool to the NE...

No vortex over Greenland...

 

Could it actually drop at this time of year, surely not, or can it...................

image.thumb.png.75f02faad3f13b67d3daa286f3d6ed81.png

image.thumb.png.77d7c4c19d83a6d24bc3c01f6e9256d8.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Little sign of the PV setting up shop anytime soon acc to EC 00z..

image.thumb.png.34e6c969c90800ec0caf3865be2878cc.png

Little sign of any cold air across our part of the NH ..maybe some colder air filtering through east scandy/nw russia ..

image.thumb.png.ff8c6e66137888333c9a0b7f88ffca85.png

Mild and wet probably sums up next week ..

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Little sign of the PV setting up shop anytime soon acc to EC 00z..

image.thumb.png.34e6c969c90800ec0caf3865be2878cc.png

Little sign of any cold air across our part of the NH ..maybe some colder air filtering through east scandy/nw russia ..

image.thumb.png.ff8c6e66137888333c9a0b7f88ffca85.png

Mild and wet probably sums up next week ..

Indeed even at 10 Hpa it's pretty slack... 

Screenshot_20190919-080846.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
On 16/09/2019 at 09:34, Ed Stone said:

This morning's GEFS ensembles clearly suggest a more unsettled spell of weather is now incoming -- reasonable temps and a better chance of seeing some rain than for some time::oldgood:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Hmmm pv seems to be really struggling this year so far!!plenty of northern blocking shown on ecm this morning!!slightly different to last year guys?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So this is where today's GFS 00Z finishes up? But, apart from the obvious, that Autumn's well underway, what exactly does it tell us? Don't take any T+384 charts seriously would be my bet...:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

And it's also all-change with the GEFS ensembles, as the tail-end flips and flops between wet and dry, cold & warm...:oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Que sera, sera??‍♂️

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

You miss the point I think without reading the post-

High pressure to the North developing West of Scandi - even towards Greenland is less likely the further you get towards October - which makes the model projections quite unusual - so totally the opposite of standard -

But dont take my word for it - how about the day 7 pressure anomalies -

EC2EA18E-14C9-485C-BE3A-DEC707684D80.thumb.png.962f1dc2adfa1003ebd95347d75be66e.png

This also goes with the weakened zonal winds which seem to be forecasting continuation of weak zonal wind. As said southerly warmth being pumped up into the pole is always a good thing leading into winter. Also the longevity of a neg nao must also show that possibility of Greenland heights this winter could feature much more this coming season. Any way onto the models hurricane season well underway only a matter of time before the unsettled weather takes over. But wouldn't rule out another fine spell in October even chance of Indian summer. But not complaining about this beautiful warmth and sunshine. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

So this is where today's GFS 00Z finishes up? But, apart from the obvious, that Autumn's well underway, what exactly does it tell us? Don't take any T+384 charts seriously would be my bet...:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

And it's also all-change with the GEFS ensembles, as the tail-end flips and flops between wet and dry, cold & warm...:oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Que sera, sera??‍♂️

After quite a disturbed spell of weather that starts this Sunday, there is a definite ensemble trend to drier and more settled weather as we head into October. Mean SLP recovering to 1020mb by the 4th, and the rainfall spikes start to disappear too.

GFS and ECM day 10 charts....blocked, and anything but your normal zonality. As @Steve Murr says, not your traditional October set up at all....

image.thumb.png.0c69e6a768d5148bc76d6539d6757fb3.pngimage.thumb.png.b5cdeb9b0377f94147673ed3407f3fdd.png
 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

You miss the point I think without reading the post-

High pressure to the North developing West of Scandi - even towards Greenland is less likely the further you get towards October - which makes the model projections quite unusual - so totally the opposite of standard -

But dont take my word for it - how about the day 7 pressure anomalies -

EC2EA18E-14C9-485C-BE3A-DEC707684D80.thumb.png.962f1dc2adfa1003ebd95347d75be66e.png

No no I read your post, which you can clearly see by the fact I quoted a particular part of it. I take on board what you say and repeat that Atlantic weather come mid/late September is perfectly normal. High pressure west of scandi of course much less normal but not unusual.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

After quite a disturbed spell of weather that starts this Sunday, there is a definite ensemble trend to drier and more settled weather as we head into October. Mean SLP recovering to 1020mb by the 4th, and the rainfall spikes start to disappear too.

GFS and ECM day 10 charts....blocked, and anything but your normal zonality. As @Steve Murr says, not your traditional October set up at all....

image.thumb.png.0c69e6a768d5148bc76d6539d6757fb3.pngimage.thumb.png.b5cdeb9b0377f94147673ed3407f3fdd.png
 

Feels like we say this every year recently though - once the PV starts to power up all this blocking ends up meaning nout.... look at last year for example. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Let’s hope these big fat Greenland highs keep on coming as we lead up to winter . GFS 6z 1040mb high over Greenland. 

4C61E2FB-EF4B-4DD9-9A55-FEAE92841CA3.png

CEA217A9-CE87-4507-8D28-1D6C70FFAA91.png

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59 minutes ago, MP-R said:

No no I read your post, which you can clearly see by the fact I quoted a particular part of it. I take on board what you say and repeat that Atlantic weather come mid/late September is perfectly normal. High pressure west of scandi of course much less normal but not unusual.

Define unusual-

Based on that - from 1999 - 2019 covering 20 years find how many high pressures you have in that general locale of Greenland East to The west coast of Norway you will find a very small sample size especially late sept - there for it is unusual - even more unusual if you compare back to 1948.

There is a caveat that if you shorten the timeline & sample size say back to 2009 where late Autumn blocking has been more apparent then it would appear to be less so....

As highlighted though the model contradicts what you are saying by its clarity in the anomaly chart being so distinct - if it wasnt so unusual the chart would be diluted.

The updated 06z anomaly chart showing further still how inverse things are V the norm

E6D26E99-E81D-4469-B7ED-5959D78FBD4C.thumb.png.528ca1c24caa57d5002ca629deee5762.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A rather odd-looking chart, IMO: shouldn't we be seeing something vortex-like forming by now?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Anywho, should charts like this still be appearing, come early December, this thread will go ballistic!:yahoo::santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.55efa68fc7e00771f23b4f92de7d07b2.png

Interesting that some ensemble members have a record weak zonal windspeeds developing - possibly a result of northern blocking starting to show up on the model runs?? At this time of year it probably doesn't mean much, but fascinating none the less!

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