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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The 5-10 NOAA and EPS this evening are singing from the same hymn sheet, The atlantic trough in the Iceland area with a strong westerly upper flow running south of it across the UK to some fair amplification in Europe. This would portend unsettled weather but much of the air is sourced a fair way south so temps above average

5-10.thumb.png.2a42ef7457038cf22fc9a11bead2b898.png610day_03.thumb.gif.38a3d3a627cbaa1d0a28a14941a118c1.gif793466224_5-10temp.thumb.png.92447de9acb991bc62ec666034ccf5aa.png

In the ext period a general relaxing  of the trough and thus the upper flow easing as pressure rises to some extent over the UK. Still changeable but much more of a northern bias vis inclement weather with temps still above average

8-14.thumb.png.f392f27324d939f3d3e871bb351f196f.png814day_03.thumb.gif.991e7e56a593a06ce4c4635bdd3c5c9a.gif1707202720_9-14temp.thumb.png.361ef1fdaf10b3ca156f00147079d46e.png

ecmwf-uk-total_precip_inch-0017600.thumb.png.f862f0e62946b63f35518a8cd9159df9.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Summer makes another comeback at the end of the Ecm 12z operational...but more importantly it makes another comeback later this week with winds becoming SEly / Sly drawing up much warmer air from southern europe, more humid too..sunny on fri / sat.. thundery breakdown from the west on sunday?...feel the burn (sun burn)...?️ 

72_thickuk.thumb.png.463619f25c4b8c140a77f6e2412b09a2.png72_mslp850.thumb.png.9f99ff36db08d064c6c275455308909e.png96_thickuk.thumb.png.3e90eaed247d45c2300ef63a015cb159.png96_mslp850.thumb.png.7dfdd9d7c099b867fea7c9cf0e4bb8be.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.d0012b182a7588afef1b701d580ae396.png120_mslp850.thumb.png.c36228536c78f9e5fce55fc771b70f6e.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.3cfdfc88104efcf4c5b50dcb762d92d7.png144_mslp850.thumb.png.a1056e2eabb2ea5a23e54db8bfcb528c.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.c6e595d7a3f295ae99860211659ca8c9.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.8171e5609e8d0dbd83608e76d7cb42bf.png476580099_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.2ad14dc25a387578f9e64d2c18e0650d.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.f66af22ee617eb817f46b34ad45ed409.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.f52a7e4601ebea46797172e3142fec1e.png169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.thumb.jpg.deb45485fd6809948052330d7b12ade5.jpg

 

True summer - astronomical summer - going out with a bang potentially? Warm if not very warm this weekend with the chance of storms to usher in the equinox. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows another warm up during the second half of this week as our high centred over the uk drifts to the east / southeast and we import a much warmer and increasingly humid SEly / Sly airflow  sourced from southern europe / north africa..Thurs / Fri / Sat are expected to be sunny with little or no cloud and temperatures widely into the low 20's celsius across england and wales, high teens / low 20's for scotland & n.ireland and closer to mid 20's c for the s / se of england...another taste of summer!...Sunday brings a breakdown from the west with heavy showers and thunderstorms and then it becomes cooler / fresher as atlantic air and frontal systems push in but gradually next week we see heights encroaching from the s / sw, ergo a North / South split develops so for southern uk it becomes less unsettled compared to the north / northwest and temperatures gradually recover again further south.

EDM1-48.thumb.gif.d9b5223c4f0f50c12e9f8cefb52c031b.gifEDM0-72.thumb.gif.5244e0103ad75cdb11997ca85758149f.gifEDM1-72.thumb.gif.8697ac29aae65b2a3a402083874783c4.gifEDM0-96.thumb.gif.bdfb8d4d8ddd0098e8cbfc6588f8bf17.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.c9877589e111ecceb067d33b3c32430a.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.508538dc87e0afeb6403b3919d861a24.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.3b0f852f84a22180d994efe484a215a7.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.34db7d6a9fd7d3701c485ee4b376f214.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Yes Karl. The op was a little on the warm side of the pack, but the mean still staying above 5c. And we can see the gradual improvement on the pressure graph moving further forward. All in all, not bad for the time of year mate. 

graphe_ens3.png

graphe_ens3 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK synoptic chart

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8764800.thumb.png.6af942ac86467fd11ad92007e03d4a99.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.0a86f0d45441a569d1ccb5b2959c0baa.gif03.thumb.gif.458c0d29818fff4133808a80f7f347e8.gif

After a chilly start in many areas it will be a very pleasant day with plenty of sunshine. The exception being northern Scotland where it will be cloudy with intermittent rain, courtesy of a warm front trailing around the northern flank of the high

PPVE89.thumb.gif.344cfcf6df8518674af130fb13189979.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.b9b8aec1d0c02e68943ffa5a5e566b9f.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.ba9e68f035de406b6d87261ac49d8b18.png

The rain will persist overnight whilst elsewhere will be clear and quite chilly again with patchy mist

PPVG89.thumb.gif.38b07b0be7d758e5a3dfb759e17861b7.gif

By Thursday the warm front has finally cleared off so a sunny day everywhere and a tad warmer than today

PPVI89.thumb.gif.e50583848fb208f9426b42b76582bf14.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.05bc1075dcdb32280662ada19224600b.png

Pretty much a repeat performance over Thursday night and through Friday but note the high cell is being pushed east as the Atlantic gathers itself.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.8aea182179efec14d9d2a0dbcb88cf30.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max_last24-9002400.thumb.png.5e96dbbe5750cfcc9bacf49ab35fb822.png

By Saturday the negatively tilted upper trough to the west has edged closer which does initiate some advection of warmer air from the south but also introduces cloud and patchy rain to some western and southern regions late on, courtesy of a trough which is the front runner of the main event

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9067200.thumb.png.b565cc6bf5c861f2b3495277b2d17025.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.c77b3a24934fbb8f2c3ab54c65926ae1.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-9088800.thumb.png.2fca051904378e7f9e7d1bbf9d850f7d.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max_last24-9088800.thumb.png.97db36bd3b348ddde6755a9812eedeaf.png

On Sunday the energy flows force the European ridge north west as the upper trough becomes more negatively tilted and the waving surface front brings more general rain to the country

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-9153600.thumb.png.b379b9dfa84df8cd87e9966458e12ae2.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.a674ae6e5fb4a1f14b5967bac1603f76.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-9153600.thumb.png.f50b5629011d58fc200484f4204fd0eb.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-9175200.thumb.png.f7563a6fc096baf4d19a87b99bb6bebb.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs, over the next 36 hours the upper trough dissipates but another quite intense affair has tracked into mid Atlantic and between this and the TPV/trough to the east, the European ridge is disrupted and a high cell is created over Iceland, There is a deep surface low associated with this that has undergone explosive cyclogenesis and the fronts associated bring rain and quite strong winds to the country on Tuesday.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9283200.thumb.png.f8cc64e9a73374f35d07850be33719f7.pnggfs-nhemi-z300_speed-9283200.thumb.png.6444a6fb384777a7417cf5f3c2ee5318.png

index.thumb.png.43cb7b68f32eda0e2200eaff168d6b27.png156.thumb.png.c8e307607da5c300289c70086b3e1625.png

By Weds the upper trough has tracked east over the country as the filling surface low does like wise. All of this will of course be subject to revision

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9412800.thumb.png.d289944fa3e0427dae7d37870b8f1558.png180.thumb.png.76007b7d8018904fce9c2ec6e15a8b72.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

At this stage the detail, as we move through next week, is impossible to pin down but the medium term GEFS gives a flavor of the general picture. Essentially unsettled with the usual day-to-day caveats and temps a tad above average

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9715200.thumb.png.fdabcc503e4244686d2690cfb5cd1ef0.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-9715200.thumb.png.745d61f8f5544f8252a8c8f5519380dd.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Similarly the ecm, after a wet day on Sunday and then a brief respite, has the frontal systems of a deep low to the north west bringing more rain and strong winds overnight Monday through Tuesday

144.thumb.png.59cd0ac2b176ca619a4ad0826934047b.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-9283200.thumb.png.9e0d87924acd1d88f69fb596d93eec67.png

And as this clears it's quickly followed by more heavy rain in the early hours of Weds as the low tracks north of Scotland with a continuation of the strong winds with gales in exposed areas

174.thumb.png.265938ccf25b80b4be4c6e2cd48bb67f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Encouraging that the EPS is still indicating a weakening and retrogression of the Iceland trough with a corresponding height increase in the eastern Atlantic so certainly an easing of the unsettled weather (perhaps not so much in the north)

index.thumb.png.6e18f03cf227442802d45832f5980eab.pngtemp.thumb.png.e703e88793ec75c6a2990822020e8536.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at ECM the rest of this week remains mostly settled with Saturday possibly quite warm as we pick up a southerly 

ECMOPEU00_24_1.thumb.png.36e79fdece4914d31ad187901db9231c.pngECMOPEU00_72_1.thumb.png.ea403661450e6e28ab3f70dca5047ff4.png

Things start to deteriorate during Sunday and that sets up the first proper unsettled spell of Autumn with low pressure never far away next week

ECMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.0d36748cc5e43dec434eb8aa00b25c7f.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.080d122c2ae663f195aadc47305a4b93.png

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.fee717bdff4aa0b8da1c21201af319e6.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.f7cf33feba783cb0184abbc3bdc53bab.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad GEFS 00Z ensemble-set: a lovely spell for the rest of this week and into the weekend, and even some possible thunderiness thrown-in for good measure...After that and it's all too volatile to pin down, IMO::oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   image.thumb.png.1579655c372ceae84cb0d618b05347ae.png

PS: Sorry about yesterday's rather haphazard posting; it was a very exhausting day on the farm!?️

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some overnight thunderstorms would be a great finale, for summer 2019?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Looking quite unsettled as we go into next week:

image.thumb.png.27b3be38f86a9553d910ad7ff7fd41db.pngimage.png.97595add19d5d37af752ad140e351f72.png

Something that's appearing at the back end of the ECM clusters (and to a degree the GFS pressure ensemble too) is strong +ve pressure anomalies over or close to the UK as we go into October:

image.thumb.png.ec4be5bbd2c4438fa9cdc7ba03322cd7.png

Quite a strong signal at this sort of range. Could the unsettled spell be a relatively short one?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looking quite unsettled as we go into next week:



Something that's appearing at the back end of the ECM clusters (and to a degree the GFS pressure ensemble too) is strong +ve pressure anomalies over or close to the UK as we go into October:

image.thumb.png.ec4be5bbd2c4438fa9cdc7ba03322cd7.png

Quite a strong signal at this sort of range. Could the unsettled spell be a relatively short one?

Remember those might be skewered by the fact that the anomaly is up against an October average smoothed over the whole month, look at the actual troughs and not the anomalies, these are from 30th Sept, doesn't look quite so settled on here.

image.thumb.png.8bd4a611ef1d0658571fb2abf4552057.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Remember those might be skewered by the fact that the anomaly is up against an October average smoothed over the whole month, look at the actual troughs and not the anomalies, these are from 30th Sept, doesn't look quite so settled on here.

image.thumb.png.8bd4a611ef1d0658571fb2abf4552057.png

Good point - and a fact I often forget with these anomalies....as you rightly say, as they tick over to a new month the anomalies look more positive as the average slp in October is a lot lower than Setepmber....oh well! Let's wait and see!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The latest ECM weeklies show a continuation of the mild weather over the next 4-weeks rain is more mixed with the wettest weather in the north and west whilst the south and east continues with the dry theme

Week 1

1.thumb.png.51a16a436b420cd39f34e34026afb00b.png

Week 2

2.thumb.png.d11e65118436c45c25d73d383658fdae.png

Week 3

3.thumb.png.41cef6fbf2f3504f772c48cbe11655ad.png

Week 4

4.thumb.png.ecea0c1d9283c9260f3ed2664dbf6595.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This morning's GEFS 06Zs don't seem to contain too many nasties, with mostly mild temperatures persisting throughout.:oldgood:

t850Surrey.png   prmslSurrey.png

t2mSurrey.png   prcpSurrey.png

And I'll be enjoying that rain...should it materialise!☔

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

GFS 12z and related products are delayed this evening due to supercomputer issues at NCEP:

Quote

NCO is currently experiencing major supercomputer issues that are causing failures of some of our models. NCO is working swiftly to resolve these issues but we expect a delay to some of our model output on our web services.

 

Quote

NCO is taking action to switch production to our backup supercomputer. This is an emergency switch and will mean major impacts to possibly all 12Z model output arrival times on our web services, including the GFS.

This may also impact other cycles of the hourly models. We plan to send another update with more information as we know it.

 

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The latest ECM weeklies show a continuation of the mild weather over the next 4-weeks rain is more mixed with the wettest weather in the north and west whilst the south and east continues with the dry theme

Week 1

1.thumb.png.51a16a436b420cd39f34e34026afb00b.png

Week 2

2.thumb.png.d11e65118436c45c25d73d383658fdae.png

Week 3

3.thumb.png.41cef6fbf2f3504f772c48cbe11655ad.png

Week 4

4.thumb.png.ecea0c1d9283c9260f3ed2664dbf6595.png

certainly looks better/milder SS, hopefully an end to these annoyingly cold starts, from Sunday looks a lot warmer minimums perhaps around 12C, rather than 3C

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Certainly a very unusual pattern for Sept ( late sep at that ) where the jet stream beginning to fire up to second / third gear -

A retrograde high supporting a unseasonal cold pool to the NE...

No vortex over Greenland...

F568FF0B-7B33-4FD6-8DE5-F1711433BA1E.thumb.jpeg.dbeef02723c764ffaa9285aa567c9e7f.jpeg

I think that comment very misleading. The cold pool associated with TPV/trough to the northeast was in situ way before the high cell over Iceland was created.

ecmwf-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-8872800.thumb.png.c987b331fd2e3c94ea4559654d64305c.png

Indeed it helped to create it as it served as a block when the ridge came under pressure from through and energy crossing the Atlantic

ecmwf-nhemi-z200_speed-9132000.thumb.png.d10972a60d501bbdf6fdd18e20734116.pngecmwf-nhemi-z200_speed-9283200.thumb.png.a56c92125c388503af0813d9bcd5f76c.pngecmwf-nhemi-z200_speed-9369600.thumb.png.f3e4564ee53032bbc0053b48e80cf845.png

Edited by knocker
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27 minutes ago, knocker said:

I think that comment very misleading. The cold pool associated with TPV/trough to the northeast was in situ way before the high cell over Iceland was created.

ecmwf-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-8872800.thumb.png.c987b331fd2e3c94ea4559654d64305c.png

Indeed it helped to create it as it served as a block when the ridge came under pressure from through and energy crossing the Atlantic

ecmwf-nhemi-z200_speed-9132000.thumb.png.d10972a60d501bbdf6fdd18e20734116.pngecmwf-nhemi-z200_speed-9283200.thumb.png.a56c92125c388503af0813d9bcd5f76c.pngecmwf-nhemi-z200_speed-9369600.thumb.png.f3e4564ee53032bbc0053b48e80cf845.png

Is the retrograde High supporting a cold pool to the NE - yes.

No-one said there wasn't a cold pool there before - as a matter of fact theres been one there all summer.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

ECM looking nice and autumnal for next week. Cool and unsettled/rainy

Badly need rain in the SE of England after a very dry spell, which in turn, followed another dry, warm summer in this part of the world. Almost like being in another country compared to the rest of the UK, climate-wise, down here these days

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
22 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Is the retrograde High supporting a cold pool to the NE - yes.

No-one said there wasn't a cold pool there before - as a matter of fact theres been one there all summer.

If it has been there for some time it is mot being supported by the high/ And it is not a retrograded high but one that has been created by the energy flows and the in situ cold pool. Your points are incorrect

 

Edited by Mapantz
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