Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[damianslaw]

The outlook within the reliable timeframe is about as zzz.. as it gets, all very pleasant and benign, but nothing to get remotely excited about - 'wake me up when september ends' - sorry but have to say this yet again.. 

[Frosty.]

With the Autumnal / September Equinox fast approaching, the Ecm 12z operational looks more like summer from later next week..very impressive charts for this time of year!!

 

 

[MP-R]

52 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

With the Autumnal / September Equinox fast approaching, the Ecm 12z operational looks more like summer from later next week..very impressive charts for this time of year!!

Exactly - it's quite the novelty to have these conditions so late in the season. Let's make the most of it, just in case it's another 5 years before the next settled September! Imagine the coming week in winter - a nice cold frosty spell with plenty of sunshine to counteract the short days. 

Even Scotland and Northern Ireland look like joining in the better conditions as the week goes on, but always the risk of the Atlantic encroaching in a week's time. GFS more bullish about that whereas the ECM offers a cutoff solution. 

[knocker]

The ecm has Humberto displacing the jet and initiating downstream ridging. At the moment

[shaky]

Amazing continuity from ecm 00z!!looks absolutely identical to 12z yesterday and gfs looks to amplify the ridge more across europe for the coming weekend aswell !could see a late heat plume before September is out!!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z operational turns into a remarkably warm run again, just like yesterday's 12z..perhaps even warmer / hotter..more like summer than autumn that's for sure!!!

Edited September 15, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

Still nothing untoward in today's GEFS 00Z ensembles; and, as ex-Hurricane Humberto is reduced to nothing but a patch of warm, humid air, all now looks set to be pretty benign...?

   

   

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean indicates anticyclonic conditions for the next week or so and becoming much warmer again during the second half of the week following a relatively cooler few days early on, pleasant enough in the sunshine but with some cold nights and then as I mentioned, later in the week we could be looking at mid 20's celsius again for southern uk, perhaps high 20's c next weekend across the S / SE. Thereafter, the pattern flattens out with lower heights to the NW and a more typically autumn changeable / unsettled westerly upper flow / zonal with temperatures returning closer to average.

Edited September 15, 2019 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

Enjoy the next week of sunshine and occasional warmth folks, it could end up being the last dose of 2019, and a good 7-8 months until it returns.

Low pressure is lurking with intent from the second half of next weekend, though thankfully the storm track appears to be heading more towards Iceland than a direct hit for us. Just more typical autumnal weather of some windier weather with some rain around at times, with your usual NW/SE split setting up:

Remaining very dry in the E/SE corner, particularly wet in the west of Scotland. 

[knocker]

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the end of next week involving the movement of Humberto and interaction with the jet

And a snapshot of the ecm det run and the clusters at T156 illustrate this

Roll it on the T192 and it is fairly obvious that any detail post T144 at the moment be treated with much caution

[Mr Frost]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Enjoy the next week of sunshine and occasional warmth folks, it could end up being the last dose of 2019, and a good 7-8 months until it returns.

In our new tropical UK climate I don’t think so. 

SE of England will record a couple of days over 20c with plenty of sunshine in October plus Aviemore/Aboyne and other parts of the Highlands will get another heatwave at the end of February!  (I was up in the Highlands during the record breaking spell back in February this year - t-shirt and shorts on the 27/02/2019 with sunshine and 17c! Barely any snow to be seen up at Cairngorm mountain! Bonkers weather! (Wee picture I took below as it was pretty unbelievable to see it so bare at that time of year!)

Hopefully the ECM is calling this right with regards to Friday, Saturday and Sunday! Glorious for many of us and I would be looking at 18/19c with sunshine here in the West of Scotland (Metoffice is almost there! )

Have a good Sunday all! 

Edited September 15, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Methuselah]

The GEFS at T+348 (though very unlikely to verify!) might even squeeze out some thunderiness? Either way, there's little if anything to suggest anything cold might be lurking...

   

I know I'm sounding like broken record, but some parts of EA and the SE are starting to resembles a desert! 

[Methuselah]

Statistically it's very unlikely to happen, but who knows? Could another all-time temperature record be in the making?

   

They laughed and mocked, in February?

Edited September 15, 2019 by Ed Stone

[shaky]

27 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the end of next week involving the movement of Humberto and interaction with the jet

And a snapshot of the ecm det run and the clusters at T156 illustrate this

Roll it on the T192 and it is fairly obvious that any detail post T144 at the moment be treated with much caution

One things for certain the high is proving a lot harder to shift for next weekend on this mornings gfs runs compared to yesterdays!!also a lot warmer and has defo shifted towards the ecm!!my fear is whatever unsettled weather shown is at 168 hours onwards and could be pushed further and further back!!bone dry here for a number of weeks now!

[Methuselah]

And the 06Zs have amplified the 'noise' even more!

   

   

Uppers ranging from -4 to +17C! Take your pick?

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And the 06Zs have amplified the 'noise' even more!

   

   

Uppers ranging from -4 to +17C! Take your pick?

Do they really call that "forecasting", it look s more like a wild guess? More concerned on the rainfall charts, but they look all over the place too.

Edited September 15, 2019 by Dorsetbred

[knocker]

Low Stratus (now a sheet) has predominated here for the last couple of hours

The EPS rainfall 'estimate' for the next 15 days

[Dorsetbred]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS rainfall 'estimate' for the next 15 days

A quick re-read was necessary there as it shows imperial rather than metric, at least some hope for the clear liquid over the up and coming period.How "accurate" is EPS with respect to rainfall figures, over the longer period?

Edited September 15, 2019 by Dorsetbred

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

A quick re-read was necessary there as it shows imperial rather than metric, at least some hope for the clear liquid over the up and coming period.How "accurate" is EPS with respect to rainfall figures, over the longer period?

I'm not aware of any definitive research on the subject but I wouldn't pin too much on them. They are after all  dependent on getting the forthcoming evolution more or less correct. But as they stand today they are confirming the ext forecast of a breakdown from the west

 

[knocker]

Marked NW/SE temp contrast today. Kew reached 26.7C

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

A quick re-read was necessary there as it shows imperial rather than metric, at least some hope for the clear liquid over the up and coming period.How "accurate" is EPS with respect to rainfall figures, over the longer period?

I'd like to think that we'll get more than that here!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No complaints from me from the UKMO for the week ahead... To coin a phrase from Karl, it's bloomin perfick. Could be nudging the mid 20s later next week!! Beyond that it may trend a little more unsettled... But not worth getting to hung up about it at this time of the year!! We are highly honoured. Enjoy if you can folks. 

[knocker]

According to the gfs max temps Frid/Sat and the simplistic synoptic evaluation

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just tomorrow looking pants? was meant to be super, this chart looks like a lot of drizzle, away from S and N UK

[Methuselah]

As we slide painfully into late September's SAD season, things in the GEFS 12Z ensembles nae look too bad:

   

   

And now it's back to Chinese science-fiction!