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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean indicates high pressure in charge next week but the position / orientation of the high makes all the difference as far as temperatures are concerned with the high centred further west to start next week in response to the scandi trough meaning winds coming down from the NW / N bringing a cooler few days during the first half of next week, still with pleasant sunny spells and some colder nights where skies clear but as the scandi trough pushes further away eastwards our high then drifts eastwards across the UK and when it gets to the E / SE we start to import much warmer continental air from the south...Now I must mention P16 because that would deliver an Indian summer during the last third of September but actually there are at least a few other 12z members showing something similar...wouldn't that be PERFICK!!

16_198_850tmp.thumb.png.fa12d30bd0e38f5bb50edacd509a13fd.png16_198_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.7da7d713ae90e7fd7c41b61490989bc3.png16_222_850tmp.thumb.png.ae5aafc95271aa5693272e1042c53a20.png16_222_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.3aa43a5a8ebdb568d7581cbbde1b6d6f.png16_246_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.6ca2dfb5b3d7c76f8464c1a146b780f4.png16_294_500mb.thumb.png.23acbb84391ed1bca034f43d48afd6cf.png16_318_850tmp.thumb.png.75bd53b1e9478c3e6cb0a07a0596ecaf.png16_318_500mb.thumb.png.bf3d9463e612fcdc4eb271694ab412d0.png16_342_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.df09e6ceb333b1a84b064cfc1a5201b5.png16_342_850tmp.thumb.png.8840de89fdfb686d95c2af0ef4919e12.pngperfick.thumb.jpg.67831686145ba5af095ad7118e1934a9.jpg

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Italian / Swiss Alps (Lake Como / St Moritz)
  • Location: Italian / Swiss Alps (Lake Como / St Moritz)

Jon, if those uppers around the 15 degree mark were to come off, then provided we have dry weather and clear skies, we could be edging towards 30C at ground level, autumn equinox be damned. Those uppers have produced high 20s in October after all.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm det run indicated a breakdown of the ridge under pressure from the energy from the west.

192.thumb.png.949ad1a06032ee6e9677d540f05a39d4.png216.thumb.png.f3a35042e5cf3cfb33e999d777f09bdf.png240.thumb.png.9715a18aab055a50541dd5141a14e246.png

Whilst obviously not supporting this specific interpretation the mean anomaly would suggest it is not an unreasonable outcome

7-12.thumb.png.845673f9e9b5667a6a33fef9cff7f4da.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

-6c Into Scotland by 27th Sept on this run.

image.thumb.png.0b914498404a5d1fcc4de0d5305e199b.png

I admire your perseverance Feb... But 14 days out is a tad pushing it in the uk! Not to mention we struggle to get - 6 uppers in January in this country.... Perhaps the end of November will be a more realistic target for such extremes.... Until then has Karl and others have pointed out well today... Plenty more warmth and settled weather to come over the next 10 day's.... Beyond then.... Who knows!!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Quite a deep Channel Low showing into Wk2 on the GFS this morning..

430071392_viewimage(48).thumb.png.072d1cfbe9d79fd1d469077402cef0c3.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Massive changes this morning on both ecm and gfs for next weekend onwards!!pressure goes significantly lower and could actually see some meaningful rainfall!!still plenty of time for change!!!we have hardly any rain around this side of the midlands for the last 5 weeks!!!i guess i gota make the most of my dry runs over the next week?‍♂️?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Quite a deep Channel Low showing into Wk2 on the GFS this morning..

430071392_viewimage(48).thumb.png.072d1cfbe9d79fd1d469077402cef0c3.png

 

It's the remnants of TS (soon to be hurricane) Humberto - you can follow it on the N/Hem view as it tracks across the Atlantic

image.thumb.png.bc9f18f6fb1e4a7242e632fbf6d21d84.pngimage.thumb.png.fab02901a97b2e4605ebe0fc3f9e7f33.pngimage.thumb.png.3d00de066ad5ad5d3f4df37b4345cb6f.pngimage.thumb.png.0343814745c71efdf63b0db1d17e6fd8.pngimage.thumb.png.66a6fadca85a4d8727bc536a9c7063bb.png

Any forecast over the next 7-10 days will be highly volatile.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Even the 500 mb charts, well EC-GFS, have a marked change but NOAA is just as it was 24 hours previously. Until it also changes then I will stick with the NOAA version of the upper air in the next 6-10 days. That said the 8-14 has shown quite a change from the last 2-3 days. Perhaps the upper air is going to show a different pattern from that predicted for the last 4-5 days. Certainly at this time of the year the enormous amounts of energy and moisture that tropical storms/hurricanes inject into the north Atlantic plays havoc with all weather models of varying lengths of forecast time.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Apart from some rather obvious Humberto-induced uncertainty (it could go almost anywhere?) this morning's GEFS 00Zs are nae all that bad...for the time-of-year:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

The GFS Operational also spends a lot of time as the coldest ensemble member...:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

A trend towards something more unsettled this morning?Or a tale of 2 progressive ops?

This evenings runs will reveal more, in the meantime, a dry week away from the NW beckons..

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A trend towards something more unsettled this morning?Or a tale of 2 progressive ops?

This evenings runs will reveal more, in the meantime, a dry week away from the NW beckons..

What would you say the NW area is...? (Everyone including myself seem to have it under different parts of the UK ) 

Its basically bone dry here next week from Monday to Friday. (West of Scotland)

Latest GFS charts below and Metoffice in agreement

9BD06D2B-C857-4C86-9F2A-8A4C4E02FDB4.thumb.png.846a9c59b339e8ae11d56fb1d11af456.png2FC23C9A-BC8F-4F5E-B3DC-5563790A16BE.thumb.png.604fe4fc3b1333abedd58925c9729ca0.png802F3997-150A-4FE5-A78B-1EA99DFF6DA8.thumb.png.3209bbcbd9682c5538991fbafb288b16.png5A5CB873-806D-4B04-8CD2-317BEC7BE425.thumb.png.598215abdb798b523338313e4f27941c.png04D35E63-604F-48A8-87F4-BAE4441F7E79.thumb.png.c6fda1d69357c7b85b1fa383874d0f45.png

D1B48A78-5E8C-42E4-BFCB-1C7F801BC780.thumb.png.60d2f1de4fd596be258f088963ff4eb9.pngA5EFB919-D88D-4555-BD0C-3D3C4713513F.thumb.png.570cefbf885b0d8dd78f3c46ebec9d64.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Its the time of year when sudden developments over the mid atlantic tropical region can play havoc with medium range forecasting, hence its wise to not look too much beyond the 144 hr timeframe. As is shown this morning, the models are picking up on a developing feature which is forecast to become entangled into the jetstream, and its path remains uncertain at this stage - so no surprise to see the current high being suggested to quickly break down come this time next week - it will have hung around for a good week anyway which is preety good going at this time of year, and will inevitably crash out to the atlantic at some point, the question is how - will it sink SE, and allow a more damp SW flow to envelop or might it get shunted away to the east with low pressure riding in over the UK..

In the meantime a very pleasant spell of weather for many especially in the south, lots of dry calm weather, decent spells of sunshine, cloud and rain reserved for the north. Quite chilly nights are expected and fog could become a key feature. Might inject some warmer uppers into the south again later next week. A good week for anyone taking a break in the UK. In overall feel, we won't see another one most likely until April at the earliest, so make the most of it (in terms of temperatures and general pleasantness - remember September is on average much warmer than April, despite the sun having less heat..).

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Models change quickly - no more so than at this time of the year with tropical uncertainty.

What was looking like a very lengthy settled spell is probably going to give way next weekend now.

Trough looking like becoming dominant by Sunday:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019091400_192.

The only question appears to be where it sits:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019091400_288.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

One has only to look at the 240h ))z outputs from ECMWF and GFS to see the mayhem a tropical storm/Hurricane causes with the models!

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/model-comparison

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

One has only to look at the 240h ))z outputs from ECMWF and GFS to see the mayhem a tropical storm/Hurricane causes with the models!

But when are the 240 op outputs ever reliable anyway, even without the storms, even when they do agree, they are usually wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Still a lot of uncertainty, re the movements of ex-Hurricane Humberto, thus the 06Z ensembles show a rapid proliferation of scatter post Day 9...Still no concrete threat of anything cold and wet yet, though. Thankfully!

prmslSuffolk.png   prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

GFS Operational is still the coldest run!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But when are the 240 op outputs ever reliable anyway, even without the storms, even when they do agree, they are usually wrong.

They are usually pretty good re- broad brush pattern changes minus the detail, But with ex tropical storms/hurricanes moving into the Atlantic this is more often than not masked by them.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nowt all that exciting from today's GEFS 12Z ensembles...more 'averageness' by looks of it...?

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Even the chance of some rain, at last...It's all so brown around here!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Plenty of late summery conditions for the coming week. A coolish start, but becoming very warm towards the end of next week as we import a warmer flow from the South, as high pressure sinks E/SE, Perhaps more unsettled by the latter stages of next weekend... Long way off though.... Until then enjoy the sun folks if you can.... Yehhhhh Boyyyyyyyyyyy. 

ECM1-72.gif

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

giphy.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some cool night's to come over the next few days, With frosts in places. Some chilly days for the North of UK.

1133012838_viewimage(49).thumb.png.55916cbfbe6e18a415257a59d1d9da43.png216097247_viewimage(50).thumb.png.45ba4d1597c70d05bc6ff0ad240321d3.png420639560_viewimage(51).thumb.png.2f85f3e075eb694d4d41af84b418b6b8.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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