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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks good, but could fog be an issue? if so potentially yucky starts cold feel too, not sure that chart is as good as it looks

ECM1-192.GIF?12-0

Anyway, whatever, certainly a damn sight better than this time last year, yuckier than yucky, sure damage was caused

archives-2018-9-21-0-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

We’d still see mid to high teens on that ecm run, too early in the season for lingering fog to be a issue. Probably perfect autumn weather for many, cool mornings and pleasant afternoons. Completely different to the gfs though! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Lovely stuff from the Ecm 12z operational if you're a fan of high pressure!..there's a brief cool down during the early part of next week, especially further east but then it's anticyclonic heaven and warming up considerably again..this weekend appears to be an appetizer for the main course if this run is close to being right!!

144_thickuk.thumb.png.de256991fec357c1aad12a7fb2f8ef42.png168_mslp500.thumb.png.fbe56c137a6d242ef62900da55bc9506.png192_mslp500.thumb.png.1a3c824d61a62015aceeb6a990e1a40b.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.77820411bfa7f4c0f1ca1d66baf16572.png218950296_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.34e98d37be8f08d0949e45ea18d1d2b6.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.b7bcdb3ff61182c71d54b6a3366f5d08.png240_thick.thumb.png.d421e7397d964c540cda2f27cba51735.pngCraig-Revel-Horwood-10.thumb.jpg.06c43977c1deaa24d1d040ec6748e24e.jpg240_thickuk.thumb.png.67746aa43fc2364636956f14299f7bf3.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Some very inclement weather in SE Spain at the moment courtesy of the upper low

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-8332800.thumb.png.54399a64f4fadd04b52ce0ee68c23496.pngecmwf-spain-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8311200.thumb.png.1f0cf697f500657690f46909d410472d.pngecmwf-spain-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8332800.thumb.png.7afb2a0af7b2f52f79e461d4da0b75f5.png

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.79475b8a32cb39f0ed3aad3b65bd02ba.jpg

My wife went to that part of spain yesterday for a week's holiday with her sisters. She said the rain was very heavy today with thunderstorms.  She wasn't too happy. Lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight. Probably the most pertinent feature of the charts is the trough in the Newfoundland area

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8332800.thumb.png.48164ba7dbe859e9bf7eab8bfdd65fc1.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.daad9679da80332bdebd935d27e9a340.gif

Once any morning cloud has cleared it seems likely that England and Wales will have a sunny day with light winds. Breezier in the north with some showers in Scotland and maybe the odd one over N. Ireland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.492d0e8a5d416dbc5e0e6907ff85001a.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.72f0fa648338d317bfb472f090bf7ade.png

The showers should dissipate this evening resulting in a clear night for all but by dawn rain will effect north west Scotland courtesy of a warm front sneaking around the high cell. And by now the low in the western Atlantic has tracked rapidly north east and deepened to be 983mb SW of Iceland

PPVG89.thumb.gif.1c373a2d2cd528d050320a52e10c95f0.gifprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.cb1de2368fd6981fe9e681c2d70f710c.png

Overnight Friday and through Saturday the low continues to track NE and by midday is 979mb over Iceland and the associated fronts have brought strong winds, gales in exposed areas, to the north and rain over central and northern Scotland during Saturday. Sunny, lighter winds and quite warm further south

PPVI89.thumb.gif.6a5dba219e0f2f9c38c7f631de41dbf4.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.b0d0f791558497b0c17f3a32b0a5b541.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.09222830524ba8a9275a3f9f053fd8cb.png

sfcgust_d02_40.thumb.png.828c7280eed7f0152f7d8faed97097dc.pngsfcgust_d02_44.thumb.png.78a74de9d4f65ea06e95c75be3fa14a6.pngsfcgust_d02_48.thumb.png.83c4d99040bd7797b7f07cba72c28597.png

The frontal system and rain clear rapidly Saturday evening but the cold front is left trailing across the country as it moves slowly south through Sunday. Thus some cloud and rain in the vicinity of this which will also mark the border between the warmer air in the south and cooler in it's wake

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8548800.thumb.png.b70283c09fa6f48c5f1d2e51ab58ad55.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.0b37110dd6381c8b65df53c8f3ce18fe.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.d6ce3b36d6901d1022f513569aa3ed1a.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8570400.thumb.png.8f9a2e78645c5d876f80ba8a3cb4adba.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8570400.thumb.png.6890cb1a1a91fa853076adaee4397394.png

The front clears the south coast on Monday leaving a warm and quite pleasant day for much of England and Wales but some showery rain in the far north courtesy of another cold front edging around the flank of the high. And thanks to the orientation of the high cell quite chilly over northern regions in the fresh NW breeze and even perhaps the odd shower in coastal regions

PPVM89.thumb.gif.c176cfb735a21532ff8f58d88de151ad.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8656800.thumb.png.2f2679162f0e2e26abeed0939539465b.png

More movement of the upper troughs and energy flows leads to further adjustment of the orientation of the high cell and the cold front tracks south on the fresh NW wind running sown the east coast, Which also leads to suppressed temps here and in the north

gfs-natl_wide-z500_speed-8743200.thumb.png.96ce696383cce3bbc7e7fe52930ebfd9.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.96eed25d4521917473f9e508d47be7e3.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8743200.thumb.png.af3b2f23e9ac88ebf1b8c0bd7785b309.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs NH 500mb profile in the 5-10 period has a familiar look to it. Quite a strong upper flow exiting the NE seaboard via the trough in the western Atlantic, around the subtropical amplifying over the UK, to the TPV and trough eastern Europe. Ergo a continuation of dry weather for much of the UK with the impact of any frontal systems being confined to the far north. Temps generally around average but subject to regional variations courtesy of the orientation of the high cell and not forgetting the diurnal variations with some chilly nights in the mix

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9196800.thumb.png.91070d2284a080c2076f6b74f9596e44.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_anom_5day-9196800.thumb.png.a354cdd83eb9b09d26fb775c3a7c687e.png

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One thing that strikes me on the 00z GFS is the lack of rainfall AGAIN! Some of us in the south are going to have to start digging for water! I know its very common to have a North/South split this time of year more so than ever but I wonder what impacts this has down the line... 

 

No seriously.. When was the last time we had such a prolonged dry period this time of year??

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Another good Ecm run in terms of high pressure bringing plenty of fine weather next week, cooler for a time and some chilly nights but then the days gradually warming up as the high drifts east / southeast enabling much warmer continental air to waft north across the uk.

120_mslp500.thumb.png.d1174d3b10cb7dfc6586034a72a982c2.png120_mslp850.thumb.png.6c32fbf02741a5240937c257d850e76e.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.4e15401d2625510b3deeb00cedb0233a.png144_mslp500.thumb.png.980d6f73fc8909e944d4cd8b52391e29.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.98b74702bdc26c8bcccd1a22f861535d.png168_mslp500.thumb.png.c50b7c61b50af466eed61076c59dd590.png192_mslp500.thumb.png.f4af15d24c9cb86d97008a4926e281fc.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.e44659548d5f8b6061f1c4ea56306eff.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.5558fabf96126d38507100da50e5b1dd.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.0714396f82c3311877aeaba097fa67f1.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.bbc743afd630669032c61688cb1d8d80.png216_mslp850.thumb.png.e416c1bdc58b32b6702c5bb1d4dcf27d.png216_thick.thumb.png.646440c95689346bcac2f464770c4978.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some patchy rain in the north during Sunday but as it moves south it will fizzle out to just cloud.

The south is unlikely to see any rain for quite a while looking at the ensembles 

gefsens850Edinburgh0.thumb.png.d8f9976eeefb8d74447ababe1038775f.pnggefsens850Newcastle0.thumb.png.dcca4fb5edc31d4363e6f0d29e525e3b.png

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.4cc068cf180a16b13d44b16f0e0a4603.pnggefsens850Plymouth0.thumb.png.778b51c745a959c4ab483f0592c4b5ab.png

All show hints of something a bit more unsettled towards months end but that's a long way off and in the meantime the pleasant weather is set to continue with nothing nasty lurking yet

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad GEFS 00Z ensemble set, this morning...Reasonable temps and all, but almost no rain...

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Things are looking a tad worrying, in these parts??:oldsad:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A rather spiffing Ecm 0z ensemble mean, remarkably similar to the operational actually which I described above..really pleasant autumn spell!

EDM0-120.thumb.gif.4002f8fc97fba274b3a127d1c7fd4a63.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.85ef3422f9c69b69eca5038a2fc61723.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.535a4dd803309aad17794be9f32275e9.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.07b9231ed839a781c28eed28d16de801.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.006abc40ebed663cace1297e887cf3ef.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.2e3bdfe698724740d38ff7f177f7187a.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.fc814025c88bfec6fcaeddce61f20fe7.gif

 

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

The 06z on the right has the Atlantic trough more positively tilted again, which cuts of the NE flow sooner.

The modelling of this has been pretty poor. The way ECM has gone from the warmest to coolest end of the solutions for Tue-Thu is quite amusing, in a sad sort of way.

Just imagine the dramatics that would be occurring if it was January and we were looking for a bitterly cold feed from the northeast! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Growing issues at day 9/10 now....
image.thumb.png.22d7ccf82a55ed8e79eb2ae703418c13.png

Nearly a quarter of ensemble members have the high swept away rapidly to be replaced by a deep trough. Ridge holding on is still the favoured outcome, but not as clear cut as it was a day or two ago. 
 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Growing consensus that the next 7 days (barring any incursion of colder air from the NNE, early next week) are still set to be mostly dry and fine. After that, though, things start to look a tad more hinky, but that's NWPs for you!:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

But things still look to be broadly okay, even at T+384...

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Nowt about which to worry?:santa-emoji:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Putting aside talk of any 'screaming NE'ly' at Day 19, for the moment, today's GEFS ensemble-set doesn't suggest anything noteworthy!...:oldgrin:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png   prcpSuffolk.png

Given what's happened, these last few months, I'm even loathe to take the rain-spikes too seriously...

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

noaa 500hpa mean charts suggest high pressure domination for the next two weeks.

warm, fine, mainly dry. chilly nights,

610day_03.thumb.gif.5ea4be8887296d80f539a9950a2eaf66.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.17511daba6a44c84bff9048187ee3643.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Carlow IRE
  • Location: Carlow IRE

A little off topic but not sure where to ask, given High Pressure setting up for next week and some nice settled weather the only real issue is fog which forecasting is always fun, is there any models that have a fog forecast?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Good grief are we going to have this kind of comment for the next 6-7 months, 16 days in advance and you are chatting about what comes after?

For those new to this, with all respect to the poster, ignore these kind of comments if you value your sanity.

It's the kind of comments we get every winter  and people never learn, I'd also say for anyone new to this that anything after T240 is likely to be too flat or amplified as the models go too far with a signal. Persistent patterns around T240 are worth a raised eyebrow. No snowy scenario should be confirmed until T96-T120 unless there is total agreement. Background signals will rightly be discussed at length but these are also subject to huge uncertainty so it's easy to get carried away.

Next week has been rather interesting to watch as the models have occasionally gone for a cool northerly clipping the east coast but have dropped this numerous times and pushed it further east. Contrast the ECM and latest GFS next Wednesday for example:

image.thumb.png.7403193924d177d80e936446fe2849e9.pngimage.thumb.png.58a1d1ce69f394210e9c0e67d44fe75e.png 

Given that the output for today also had cooler uppers shunted away closer to the time I think next week will see the same. Minima may be a bit cooler at this time of the year though underneath that high.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Merely out of interest.

The gfs forecasts potential cyclone 9 to be off the Georgia coast in a couple of days

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8613600.thumb.png.3d105d241b42c3b4af782a5f2a12b6d0.png

It then runs it north east and gets picked up by another trough and then deepens along the left exit of a strong jet

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8980800.thumb.png.5164011d8db9bdf3449cb31d3683ee0e.pnggfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-9045600.thumb.png.f3a2fb9dbaca9d962641c820a8c74b1b.pnggfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-9045600.thumb.png.8d3d7cb1c8c8279b0fbf45d220287104.pngindex.thumb.png.2e07d239ef83fc165e70ffaf3f888e4e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Screaming NE'ly in bound if it went out further, -8c not a million miles away from Scotland.

image.thumb.png.279df6f6dc4a76b1ee4c39c8992e2409.png

Mmm 7C and rain showers! Can't wait!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Mmm 7C and rain showers! Can't wait!

very last chart and now an old run, thankfully 12Z looks better!

gfs-0-372.png?12gfsnh-0-204.png?12?12

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