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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
On 06/09/2019 at 21:48, johnholmes said:

I think it needs repeating once again for the umpteenth time, check like with like at anything post 120-144 h.

You are far more likely, especially if it compares favourably with the 500 mb mean charts, to get a realistic view of the probable weather, 500 mb or surface.

However, no doubt I am likely to be totally ignored over the next 6-8 months.

Odd really as the winter is really little different from the summer in how the models behave.

Having said that, model verification stats are higher in winter than summer. Hard to believe when we get phantom easterlies!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Cant believe how dry its been here over the last 3 weeks!!and theres no rain forecast for the next 2 weeks nearly on the gfs ensembles for this part of the world!i love it and long may it continue!!feels so much better picking and dropping the kids up from school!!normally at this time of the year the rains start kicking in but its completely different this year!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Good morning folks.. Lovely sunny conditions here today. Looking at the week ahead, we have some unsettled conditions at times. Monday looking quite a miserable day, through to mid week we have some rain at times and also very windy conditions, especially further North. But don't give in on summer just yet!! Increasing signs of pressure building strongly by the end of the week, and next weekend and even beyond! Worth noting also, that as high pressure transfers East, we start to pull in a more Sthly feed.... Temps could be nudging mid 20s if this goes to plan!!! Looking good for at least one more summer hoorahh!! Enjoy your day folks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Spiffing GFS 06Z for next Sunday!:yahoo::oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Fine and warm with overnight/early morning fog?☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, what a fine set of GEFS 06Z ensembles...potentially some perfect Autumn weather?:oldgood:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

Looking at the models it is looking like some terrific Autumn weather on the way, might just take us into October.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean, like the operational is delightful further ahead with strong high pressure and much warmer surface conditions for the majority!..what's not to like?

 

Summer in September is not to like!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

It just seems to happen like clockwork in modern times....cack weather in August gives way to a nice settled warm spell in September. Potentially turning very warm into the following week as the high drifts east and winds turn more southerly. Warm days and cool nights, what’s not to like? Good harvesting weather (if there’s much to harvest?!)

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Browsing through GEFS suite indicates very blocked Atlantic and some nice NH profiles if it was to continue,perhaps a knock on effect from slow start to polar vortex season as suggested by A.Butler?

gens_panel_pyr1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, it's only right that a 12Z stonker should be followed by an ensemble set to match...

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

That'll do nicely!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I think as per ever the question will be once the high ridges in, just how long will it hang on for, hopefully we get a nice strong block established as we often can get in September. Let's save the wetter, cooler weather until the 2nd part of October onwards! 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

If you base it on the seasonal equinox Don, Summer in September is no real different to summer in early June! I would much rather these conditions to relentless rain and gales! But each to there own.. Summer straight to winter will do me just fine. 

Cooler and wetter Septembers in recent decades have tended to increase the chance of colder winters to follow, although by no means guarantee!  Not sure why this is mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It just seems to happen like clockwork in modern times....cack weather in August gives way to a nice settled warm spell in September. Potentially turning very warm into the following week as the high drifts east and winds turn more southerly. Warm days and cool nights, what’s not to like? Good harvesting weather (if there’s much to harvest?!)

was decent at times last year too, cracking days into 0ct too, may not look great, but was full sun and around 22 degrees

archives-2018-10-9-12-0.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

was decent at times last year too, cracking days into 0ct too, may not look great, but was full sun and around 22 degrees

archives-2018-10-9-12-0.png

 

And we all know what followed...one of the most unmemorable winters of our time.  

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook – In the medium term a period when high pressure will be the main influence of our weather is pretty much nailed on but the duration of this period is not. In the ext period using the mean anomalies from yesterday midday there is pretty good agreement between NOAA and the EPS but as can readily be seen the GEFS is out of kilter  vis the position of the vortex lobe; Atlantic trough and thus it continues to amplify the subtropical high over the UK instead of weakening and moving it a tad east. This obviously needs resolving

9-14.thumb.png.3fbd1ba62de2bd3507542708d5de9957.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9153600.thumb.png.6732164cf37d6476485920091fd4e7ad.png814day_03.thumb.gif.efec74ee38873974f2e21992a8657fb0.gif

Meanwhile........the North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-7987200.thumb.png.039103354807c3cfb4f5a39d5767a008.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.f18d0bc0b19adc8bfa8b3d8f30479b7e.gifmeteosat-msg_ir108_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.5d249037d7404dad01fb985af3e3941c.jpg

The band of moderate rain already into western regions will move slowly east during the day but with some complications as a wave forms on the slow moving cold front which will produce some more intense pulses in south Wales and the south west, with perhaps thunder in the mix. It will generally ease through the afternoon and become more showery in nature.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.56bfb25ff0ef706ab963ba39e1206b4e.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.42aa9caa6824bcf7a8d37dcc963af322.pngprecip_d02_13.thumb.png.aab04ed4bf3e2ba3610d2d1ed881e566.pngprecip_d02_17.thumb.png.6e2bdfd494fc580b2477cdc3f50f2cc3.pngprecip_d02_22.thumb.png.bc94e22725dd564db78052fa4b9e466c.pngprecip_d02_25.thumb.png.c4d53bfd3180b2d90e63351983fbbd8d.png

The thundery showers in the south west will clear by early evening leaving a generally cloudy night with some isolated showers around but perhaps clearer in the north west

PPVG89.thumb.gif.3f96ee8d66d030f98e6d60fad4946a5c.gifprecip_d02_27.thumb.png.d3999f8b365c17e225197b3167bef804.png

The now weakening cold front is still hanging around on Tuesday so a day of sunshine ans showers but a low which is the transformation of hurricane Dorian has arrived to the south west of Iceland and rain from the associated fronts will impact N.Ireland and western Scotland by late afternoon, accompanied by strengthening winds

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8116800.thumb.png.a3f3cf1053fbf9fa67b50f7fb8707ecd.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.271e782ff9750be9d952981d03582337.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.718d6ddfe66522ecef6bac35daa5df62.png

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The low will track north east of Iceland over Tuesday night and through Weds as the fronts sweep across the country bringing some very wet weather and strong winds to the north, before clearing leaving breezy and showery conditions. But note the remnants of TS Gabrielle are now tagged on to the trailing cold front

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8203200.thumb.png.5aed07ce61ebda1c978929d4410bd052.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.3461aa432378270875308a7ec5b0769e.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.fca03372c5767844df2df92145163a20.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8170800.thumb.png.f92ed6550b4de37db46d428454f75cc7.pnggfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8224800.thumb.png.6f933ca415934c4e533607d344d63d41.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8224800.thumb.png.b2ac6e3e7b7f56f2d05e971ee71a2fbc.png

And ex-Gabrielle, with associated fronts, duly tracks north east to bring more rain on Thursday, along with some warmer air.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.ebb240f0f7925ac1a51b617cc4f3b54e.gifgfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8311200.thumb.png.9f1f558e6ed6af93cb2b5f7e956b0bce.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8311200.thumb.png.d0b431da471364af52200fc50f14bbfd.png

By Friday the inclement weather has cleared and a high cell is becoming established over much of the country and thus drier weather apart from showery rain still in the far north west.But significantly away to the west the subtropical high has amplified over eastern North America as another trough drops into the western Atlantic.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-8376000.thumb.png.c8664db672b287df96eed41bea271de9.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.e9e0644fbca738ffdcdce2927be52d7c.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8397600.thumb.png.08bf3eeaca73bdbc5c41922614b3fe16.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Over the weekend the aforementioned ridge and trough moves east and the latter starts to deconstruct as the subtropical high builds over the UK. Thus a dry weekend for most with some showers in the north on saturday and warming up a tad by Sunday.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8505600.thumb.png.da0c7a01bf6bf177942c4e81b9562ace.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8592000.thumb.png.3c3327e7e503a0aebbe894e581206caf.png

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-8473200.thumb.png.7d59c96a71c1190fad56cd3a1a8cefbe.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-8570400.thumb.png.44ce760a67ca755138db82fa99499e76.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning's GEFS is leaning more towards the earlier NOAA/EPS interpretation in the ext period. Nothing particularly untoward lurking in the woodshed but suggestive of a more N/S split again

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9110400.thumb.png.7ac26ed62fd0ed21fc8435dc9869b479.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The em det run differs from the gfs quite early on with a high cell/trough combination over Greenland and the jets coalescing to be very strong south of Iceland which tends to suppress the amplification of the subtropical high

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8505600.thumb.png.c006b705437de08b93fd3c18904a18c6.pngecmwf-nhemi-z300_speed-8505600.thumb.png.7f3358fce7009831b8583e461555f842.png

But no major differences vis the weekend with some showers and stronger winds in the far north as the high cell gets shunted east

sat.thumb.png.2ea5cd38702a74c9ae0d8c6d9d430650.pngsun.thumb.png.93386086f76e9f7c727fa7f589d7168f.png

In the 5-19 period still the twin energy flows coalescing into a strong westerly around the subtropical high with the latter still remaining influential over much of the UK but energy will still impact around it

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8851200.thumb.png.9351d519cf8400ec302d38026e45df8b.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
On 06/09/2019 at 11:05, carinthian said:

Just in . A bit of an update regarding snow forecast model for Sunday into Monday for Central Alps. Heaviest accumulation in the Northern Tauern Range with forecast freezing level in the range 1950-1750 m level. Predictions of 30cm  ( see above post ) and 20 cm on the southern side where the freezing level is likely to be a little bit higher. 

C

On cue, the predicted snowfall arrived in the region this morning. The colder upper air associated with a developing trough over Western Austria yesterday now over Central Austria. Snow level generally in the predicted range, currently 1750 m . The  recorded snow depth increasing markedly with height ( 5cm at 1800m to 30cm + at 2200m ) Well done again to the snow model with its prediction from 5 days again. Just blows me away with its accuracy . Heaviest rates in the Northern Tauern Range as is the usual case in these parts.

 C

3.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
22 hours ago, shaky said:

Cant believe how dry its been here over the last 3 weeks!!and theres no rain forecast for the next 2 weeks nearly on the gfs ensembles for this part of the world!i love it and long may it continue!!feels so much better picking and dropping the kids up from school!!normally at this time of the year the rains start kicking in but its completely different this year!

Looks like the rain is further east than expected comparing GFS to the radar

ukprec.thumb.png.ad6373d44121eee507fdc6bececcb84f.png1225378964_download(3).thumb.png.fb1a8b2ea1cbcd6d5efb186be18f9325.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Another good set of GEFS 00Z ensembles, this morning, with warm, sunny weather looking likely to predominate...?☀️

 prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

We could do with a wee drop more rain, though!:shok:

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