Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Hi Carinthian, I have seen some snow pixels being indicated around the 16th September for levels around 1000m in our Tatra Mountains. ECMWF confirms this in mornings 0Z, also weeklies from 16-22.09 have us 3-5C colder then average. It will be a very early start to mountain snow season this year then, interestingly the trends from last 10 years have been that snow is visiting us very early.

Yes, Jules216, I have seen that for the Tatra range. Still a long way off the 16th September but several H. Res models showing much of Central Europe in the colder side of the high pressure block.

C

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Last week our snow model in the portal service forecast indicated snow at 2000m for this coming weekend. also, longer range model showed high pressure developing mid -month , more likely to be centred over Scandinavia. Latest portal now confirms snow at 1780 m with predicted depth of 32 cm by the end of Sunday, more likely in the Northern Austrian Alps, especially in Salzburgerland.  Looks like much of Europe to enter into a cooler/ colder phase as this month progresses.

C

Just in . A bit of an update regarding snow forecast model for Sunday into Monday for Central Alps. Heaviest accumulation in the Northern Tauern Range with forecast freezing level in the range 1950-1750 m level. Predictions of 30cm  ( see above post ) and 20 cm on the southern side where the freezing level is likely to be a little bit higher. 

C

[Frosty.]

Well what can I say, the longer term Ecm 0z operational is perfick.. and the longer term ensemble mean looks increasingly perfick too, especially further south!!

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[MIKE LEVITT]

looks like cool for the foreseeable.just need that high to move further away for even cooler autuminal weather.

[mb018538]

Not unanimous agreement on the high being sat over the UK at day 10 just yet:



Doesn't look like we've got any blood and thunder autumnal storms heading our way for a little while at least. It's still very early in the season anyway, once the thermal gradient starts to increase then i'm sure we will see some storminess.

[Methuselah]

The GEFS 06Z ensembles are looking a tad more uncertain again...Will it be warm? Will it be cold?

   

   

[Frosty.]

Well what can I say, the Gfs 12z operational turns into a very good run, especially for southern uk if you are a fan of quiet benign anticyclonic weather...there's plenty of it..there's even a mini-plume type situation later..the friendly face of autumn!.

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Methuselah]

And another very good set of GEFS ensembles. Though the op is a wee bit out-on-a-limb by Day 16!

   

   

Will get an Indian Summer (well, not a real one actually, because a real one can only occur after the...) this year?

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows very good continuity (unlike the operational) from the 0z in terms of gradually building high pressure in across at least southern uk bringing  a more sustained pleasant settled spell.

 

Edited September 6, 2019 by JON SNOW

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows very good continuity (unlike the operational) from the 0z in terms of gradually building high pressure in across at least southern uk bringing a a more sustained pleasant settled spell.

 

I prefer the op Frosty . Nice cool N wind setting in at days 9 and 10 . -3 850s into Scotland if we get light winds and clear sky’s at night Mr Frosty will be paying us a visit . 

[johnholmes]

I think it needs repeating once again for the umpteenth time, check like with like at anything post 120-144 h.

You are far more likely, especially if it compares favourably with the 500 mb mean charts, to get a realistic view of the probable weather, 500 mb or surface.

However, no doubt I am likely to be totally ignored over the next 6-8 months.

Odd really as the winter is really little different from the summer in how the models behave.

[Frosty.]

Just seen the Ecm 0z operational ...wow, just wow!!!..high pressure and very warm later in the run..that cool Northerly from last night's 12z is gone!!!!

 

Edited September 7, 2019 by JON SNOW

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I think it needs repeating once again for the umpteenth time, check like with like at anything post 120-144 h.

You are far more likely, especially if it compares favourably with the 500 mb mean charts, to get a realistic view of the probable weather, 500 mb or surface.

However, no doubt I am likely to be totally ignored over the next 6-8 months.

Odd really as the winter is really little different from the summer in how the models behave.

well i for one will never ignore your advice john. ive found it to be spot on, so much so that ive confidently started my own page (with another) because using the anomaly/mean charts as a guide to which ops are most likely to be nearest the mark is proving to be very accurate....when consistent of course.

[Newberryone]

Overnight Ecm op run still on course for a general settling down of sorts from around Thurs/Fri but it has to be said looking slightly further ahead into week 2 that the anticyclone seems to be coming under renewed pressure from a..dare I say it, resurgent Atlantic!!

[Methuselah]

I say, chaps...the 00Z's a spiffer!

   

And the GEFS ensembles are spiffing too!

   

   

[Frosty.]

Just a quick mention about the Ecm 0z ensemble mean, great continuity again regarding an increasingly settled / anticyclonic early autumn spell on the way, at least across the southern half of the uk!

 

[Methuselah]

GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad--plenty warm enough and plenty sunny enough, once the early part of next week's gotten out of the way...? Though, who knows if it's right/wrong?

   

   

Anywho, another month and the 'Big People' will be back...and all routes'll lead to snow!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad--plenty warm enough and plenty sunny enough, once the early part of next week's gotten out of the way...? Though, who knows if it's right/wrong?

   

   

Anywho, another month and the 'Big People' will be back...and all routes'll lead to snow!

All roads do lead to snow Pete.... Unfortunately, its the roads leading to Canada and siberia!! Not a bad outlook from the GFS and ECM regarding further ahead... Lots of settled and fine conditions to come!! Ive noticed how Exeter don't seem to be on board though!! In the words of Mike Poole...... We shall see.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

On 06/09/2019 at 14:05, Ed Stone said:

The GEFS 06Z ensembles are looking a tad more uncertain again...Will it be warm? Will it be cold?

 

Bone dry after this week seems likely:

Edited September 7, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Methuselah]

Given the general direction in which the models seem to be moving, I'd no' be surprised should Sshh, You Know Who change their monthly forecast, sometime over the next day or two?

   

Edited September 7, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

A rather nice set of GEFS 12Z ensembles, methinks!

   

   

Foggy mornings, sunny afternoons would be my guess...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

been monitoring Monday's deluge for a few days now on every run, but could we even (away from the east) get away with a dry day? FAX, stalls the front out to the west, like a typical winter setup, where the front fails to make it this far east, if it was Jan, this would be a snow front, and this usually happens

Edited September 7, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been monitoring Monday's deluge for a few days now on every run, but could we even (away from the east) get away with a dry day? FAX, stalls the front out to the west, like a typical winter setup, where the front fails to make it this far east, if it was Jan, this would be a snow front, and this usually happens

Hopefully that chart is correct. 

Got 6 months coming up with endless rain, any delay of the wet stuff in September is more than welcome here. 

Edited September 7, 2019 by Ben Lewis

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles might be too good to be true, as the op stands atop an enormous degree of scatter...Could still be good!

   

   

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO Ex-Hurricane Dorian will move over towards the UK during Tuesday and by Wednesday most areas are likely to see some rain and stronger winds

High pressure then gradually builds through the remainder of the week as Dorian moves away with any rain becoming restricted to NW Scotland