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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.


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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

As I suspected, TS Dorian having little impact on our weather this side of the Atlantic going forward. What is clearly evident is a continuation of mostly dry weather apart from the usual areas further to the northwest but even here precipitation looks negligible. Certainly very little happening it would seem well on into the Fi period for those especially who are by now seeking something generally more autumnal in nature. :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Could this be the start of something better: Atlantic depressions and winds from a SW'erly quarter? What could be better?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not a bad Gfs 6z operational, sure it's a mixed bag with some low / high pressure / ridging so  it's certainly  not full blown unsettled and there's even a hint of a mini-plume or two! 

06_300_mslp850.thumb.png.4ed3b301312de72bac9b9077ab5210fc.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 06Z ensembles hint at something a tad plumey, two or three days' after mid-month...But we mustn't get over-excited just yet!

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

                                  image.thumb.png.68bec549abc6ff77a8234a038ddccd56.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Best Gfs run of today so far (not saying much) but at least for southern uk the 12z operational shows a gradual return to something resembling summer. High pressure and temps warming up into the 20's celsius!!

12_198_mslp500.thumb.png.a2853088b89a7708dffac1654e7dc9c0.png12_222_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.bcd48647a95d4ac33853ecfc4128f1b4.png12_222_mslp500.thumb.png.0382db85c3c32f29a881b3577f205ba1.png12_264_mslp500.thumb.png.0523affb6351d8811f80e2ab73a9ddfe.png12_264_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.3d7b01480cfdb1000bc9934c4d8d7d06.png12_288_mslp850.thumb.png.6a5011722901814e6bd6d95d5e2f92b2.png12_300_mslp850.thumb.png.a5cf228c847cf6c10b0237a8d2bd257d.png12_288_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.9fff9b08acb5f6a8ed6e36d23cd32b8f.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

You're right, karl, it's so good it has THREE days' maxes at 25C!:yahoo::oldgrin:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And one of them might even be a Tuesday!:oldgood:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 0z operational, for the most part is nae bad, there's plenty of benign high pressure / ridging with pleasantly warm sunshine but some chilly nights..mists and mellow fruitfulness springs to mind!!! 

00_72_mslp500.thumb.png.8ef2ea450d45b00840f58cb9707e30b0.png00_180_mslp500.thumb.png.73a6402db9380bb83118c44f50b02e99.png00_204_mslp500.thumb.png.b07e56792986fcb8df0a1ec64824145b.png00_276_mslp500.thumb.png.5d639f2ee5119f3cfe1e60728bb953c2.png00_324_mslp850.thumb.png.e428f53bb387e432d82e5f8d6dd57edf.png00_324_ukthickness850.thumb.png.452729c80d1292fab5a30149528cd4e7.png

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

As you say, karl...a much better run all round!:oldgood:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Now watch it all go pear-shaped on the 06Zs? Practising for winter!:santa-emoji:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 0z operational is nae bad either, especially further south, there's plenty of high pressure / ridging with most of any atlantic weather brushing across the north / far north / northwest..so, in a nutshell, there's quite a lot of benign weather indicated from the 0z runs, ergo, plenty of nice early autumn sunshine!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But is it a real signal or it is just noise? The GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad, either way...?:oldgrin:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

It wouldn't be the first time this year, that warmth and sunshine have defied the prognostications of the experts, would it?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

this run would give me snow showers in Slovakia -2C 850hPa

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Hi all, oh dear bit of model fatigue set in with me recently (I find I always need a quiet few weeks somewhere in the year   )

Anyway, not a bad picture for mid-month on the latest clusters. Majority of members with positive height anomalies pushing up from the south at T240. Could get warm again for a short while:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019090500_240.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Now folks... As you will be aware we are now moving into Autumn, and very soon the leaves will be falling off the trees!!! But try telling that the GFS legacy that goes on to slap a huge anticylone right over us.... It also warms up quite a bit.... Just another balmy episode in this forever crazy climate.

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-1-264.png

500921b3290546679474187dc536977d.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking towards / during / beyond mid month there is increasing support from the GEFS 12z for a pleasant benign anticyclonic period as these mean charts indicate..light winds and sunshine..mists and mellow fruitfulness... great Gfs operational too as Matt shows above!!

21_222_500mb.thumb.png.af743683671d6f901dd4579c3f339ec6.png21_246_500mb.thumb.png.9e187ab8a49b4d8338bfaebd937f725e.png21_270_500mb.thumb.png.965b306d22f4180f9dcca1ec4e5d554c.png21_294_500mb.thumb.png.1ce372f70043dcaf96e8f00a9f4be83c.png21_318_500mb.thumb.png.1a10cb9e376b30eacfb120695f58616f.png21_366_500mb.thumb.png.8d3d31bc0ab01f7dd39234abf3403c43.png

 

 

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS 12Z ensembles still going for high-pressure taking hold from around mid month...Temps will, of course, be very dependent on just where the HP sits...

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But, I do think the 06Zs were better...

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Nice to see some lengthy spells under strong high pressure on offer from GFS. It feels like it's been absolutely ages since we last had one of those!

Remains to be seen how far north the high sets up. The ECM 12z offers a near-optimum outcome for very warm days, but GFS 12z takes the high too far north for much of an import of warm air - which we increasingly rely upon in mid-late Sep to lift the temperatures much above the long-term average.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.7b84b41288879327be606ee33fa85c54.png

ECM develops a strong anticyclone by the end of the run this morning. I think everyone loves an anticyclone in autumn,  they can bring some lovely weather - without the boiling heat they often bring in July and August that some people (not me ) find a bit too much.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.7b84b41288879327be606ee33fa85c54.png

ECM develops a strong anticyclone by the end of the run this morning. I think everyone loves an anticyclone in autumn,  they can bring some lovely weather - without the boiling heat they often bring in July and August that some people (not me ) find a bit too much.

I agree, a lovely run for those who enjoy outdoor activities ..

Hope it comes off, its grey and drizzly wet again today, yuk.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, today's GEFS 00Z ensembles see a tad less optimistic than some of yesterday's efforts:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Even a visit from the 0C isotherm!

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
28 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Last week our snow model in the portal service forecast indicated snow at 2000m for this coming weekend. also, longer range model showed high pressure developing mid -month , more likely to be centred over Scandinavia. Latest portal now confirms snow at 1780 m with predicted depth of 32 cm by the end of Sunday, more likely in the Northern Austrian Alps, especially in Salzburgerland.  Looks like much of Europe to enter into a cooler/ colder phase as this month progresses.

C

Hi Carinthian, I have seen some snow pixels being indicated around the 16th September for levels around 1000m in our Tatra Mountains. ECMWF confirms this in mornings 0Z, also weeklies from 16-22.09 have us 3-5C colder then average. It will be a very early start to mountain snow season this year then, interestingly the trends from last 10 years have been that snow is visiting us very early.

meTz20190905_0000+43200.png

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