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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

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Time to put Summer behind us as we head into a new Month/Season that is Autumn.

As ever, please keep your posts friendly & about the models in here!

Alternative Threads:
To chat more generally about the Autumn weather please head to the Autumn thread:

And to post tweets about the models (although you're still welcome to use the Model Output Discussion thread), please see this thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87130-model-tweets/

For the Met Office outlooks, please use this one:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

Old thread here: 

 

Edited by Polar Maritime

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The ecm take for next weekend. Quite wet on Friday as a front tracks south east down the country. A few showers on Saturday as a ridge builds north east and not dissimilar on Sunday with some showers in western regions.

132.thumb.png.59534312be8e6b0d5a06ab6e06a3d73f.png156.thumb.png.646281c4d854efdb2d90fdaeb2302dee.png180.thumb.png.1a524d4276d6f89799fcd6c809739920.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7771200.thumb.png.db151fd4e13a0dc669dca519dc09d0a5.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7857600.thumb.png.e292b6597c4be8503ab5466ef85454a1.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-7987200.thumb.png.702b2cab98944bc2f478d72a1a2a67f2.png

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Happy Autumn folks,

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean / perturbations longer term there are signs of increasingly warm anticyclonic conditions, possibly another plume even, a return to summer?..hopefully!👍🌞

PS...I posted the charts in the last thread before it got closed!!👍😉

Edited by JON SNOW

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Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles would seem to suggest a bit of everything but nowt all that specific, after around Day 6...?:unsure2:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles would seem to suggest a bit of everything but nowt all that specific, after around Day 6...?:unsure2:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Indeed Ed,..engage thrusters!!😮😜

What I find encouraging though is the longer term signal from around mid month, although it's now the meteorological autumn, that doesn't preclude further summery spells this month..watch this space!!!👍😉

Edited by JON SNOW

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1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Indeed Ed,..engage thrusters!!😮😜

What I find encouraging though is the longer term signal from around mid month, although it's now the meteorological autumn, that doesn't preclude further summery spells this month..watch this space!!!👍😉

Definitely not - we had mid 30s in the middle of September in 2016 (34c Gravesend) and 29.9c on the 1st October in 2011. Heat can still be a factor for another month or so. September is rarely that autumnal anyway, especially down south where maxima are regularly in the 20s.

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Will be interesting to follow the track of what is now major Cat5 Hurricane Dorian as it moves into the Atlantic, This will have big impacts on upcoming model runs.

291476576_viewimage(47).thumb.png.8cd264fca00cf01588e5f090d9e04d17.png38712792_viewimage(46).thumb.png.b950971bcabe1d92fa5148e4268e8b43.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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A quick look at the clusters for the end of the week confirms the likelihood of the amplification of the subtropical high and the ducking of the tough down the North Sea as being the best punt of the week

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019090100_132.thumb.png.601bde596ba067113d972da71cc5f7e9.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019090100_156.thumb.png.1d867eda47ec1b6c9012ab3cb06c811c.png

Looking further afield  The NOAA and EPS medium term mean anomalies are in pretty good agreement ,with the TPV over the pole and associated troughs Greenland/Europe. A strong westerly upper flow exiting NE North America, south of the Greenland trough, and around the slightly amplifying mid Atlantic subtropical high before diversifying and abating to some extent in the eastern Atlantic, courtesy of the European trough. This would suggest a SW/NE variation with the latter being more unsettled but temps generally below average

5-10.thumb.png.867eb320905fed5e0867a40fe747c4fe.png610day_03.thumb.gif.c318a1745c7bf30f1cf9e18ea1303833.gif1088720753_5-10temp.thumb.png.06a9888909ed85a3c3be96e58d30810f.png

No huge change in the ext period, perhaps a flatter flow across the Atlantic and thus more generally changeable with temps creeping up to be near average

9-14.thumb.png.8cec9d078a7d9dca07295ba335aaa29a.png814day_03.thumb.gif.7a0118519a806e4e71bf01f5ff5fa007.gif51561693_9-14temp.thumb.png.73ce1be26c7f51f561bb511daf4be5ad.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Sunday 1st September

Ec-gfs with ec still showing heights and some ridging over and w of uk with flow n of w; gfs has ridging further w and flatter flow over atlantic so flow almost w’ly which is a change as the last 2-3 days it had been pretty similar to ec

Noaa(last eve) continues fairly similar to the chart ec shows, more so than gfs version; noaa been much like this for several days, even last wed much as last evening

All in all no sign of heat returning and a nw-se split expected 6-10 days, less changeable in se and noaa 8-14 follows along similar lines.

Now we are into hurricane season for n atlantic (one already looking like being caught up in the jet stream, the anomaly charts rarely (as mean outputs) rarely show these enormous areas of moisture and 500 mb vortexes, so caution for 2 months or so more so that usual, even over and above that for the hemisphere starting to go from summer to winter mode

models already shown by k above

 

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Looking interesting in a wet and windy way come a week on Tuesday when ex-hurricane Dorian expected to arrive. 

This GFS run for 9am on the 10th showing 976 SLAP

SLAP GFS 10.09.19 9am ex hurricane Dorian.png

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Purely speculation at the moment but an idea how tropical storms effect WV movement

IVT_conv_82.thumb.png.f2829c5d5c46de0f641ae485b995af2a.pngIVT_conv_86.thumb.png.e515f1b218fb75eb5243522ec26a622d.pngIVT_conv_89.thumb.png.e17124cbda71cfded866e3d8c8c2eb81.png

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, Don said:

Erm, no thank you.  We've had enough plumes this year and want to look forward to some cooler and unsettled weather now.  That said, I doubt summer is done with us yet.......

This should cheer you up a bit Don... Deep low pressure to the NW, and quite a cool and unsettled set up.... Look at those uppers over Greenland now... Gerrin very close to banging the drum hard for winter now.... Cold crisp days, and even colder nights!!! That's the hope anyway... 😉

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

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Looking at the Ecm 12z operational it's not a bad run for the most part, there's a mixture of settled / less settled, quite a lot of ridging further south where the best of the fine weather would be, cooler / warmer days / cooler / milder nights and it's only really when we get to days 9 and particularly 10 when the remnants of Dorian arrive in the form of a deep depression to the NW when it becomes unsettled with stronger winds, especially for the NW.

Edited by JON SNOW

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33 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

This should cheer you up a bit Don... Deep low pressure to the NW, and quite a cool and unsettled set up.... Look at those uppers over Greenland now... Gerrin very close to banging the drum hard for winter now.... Cold crisp days, and even colder nights!!! That's the hope anyway... 😉

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Don isn't the only one who would find some cheer in this chart, however I suspect Dorian will probably have little or no effect come that time frame on those nagging heights to the southwest. The same source of high pressure that usually plagues us during winter by scuppering any cold weather potential. Far too early for any such air of despondency of course😉

Edited by Newberryone

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The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-7382400.thumb.png.18605ab91f9a06b9e3215bac39d4aff9.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.3b6ea7491addbc21da9f8a5ae892b8fb.gif

The subtropical high is ridging north east across the country but there is plenty of energy driving systems around the ridge and one such will very shortly bring rain and a strengthening winds to western Scotland The pulses of heavy rain will encompass the whole of Scotland during the morning and then include N. Ireland and north west England. Dry further south but cloud increasing from the west during the day.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.ef7198de1b63009e258e2cbc25624e07.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.77c9582b91aab4130e6bd735f0ea40b0.pngmeanreflec_d02_13.thumb.png.d22348d05b7deb2de9f048257478675a.pngmeanreflec_d02_15.thumb.png.16e14b95727bbad24819b44e0900b557.pngmeanreflec_d02_20.thumb.png.aaf20fdb36a280a9a9da85a376e868ab.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.f7859743e6b8d48af776283d80e31831.png

With fronts trailing across the north intermittent rain will continue across the above regions through this evening and overnight, with also the odd shower down western regions of Wales and England. Elsewhere dry but quite cloudy

PPVG89.thumb.gif.eeede66772d671086bdd553e1750bda7.gifprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.629ef52ca0b2074e96f7ec77691770a1.png

As can be seen a dry start in many areas on Tuesday but there are a myriad  of fronts associated with the low south of Iceland gathering just to the west and more heavy rain will effect Scotland, N. Ireland and NW England through the day and even stretching as far south as west Wales

PPVI89.thumb.gif.3b24bc18374b89f62095187f4e28c656.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.381809be8953dc9c8cd97a498bed8da3.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.486df131056fd638878ea16942ffb7da.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.065879771833a6a71ca09156104e073b.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.bcc9989bd75b53f61130320fdd76652c.png

Stirring of the subtropical high zones leads to a reformation and alignment of the upper trough (discussed previously) resulting in a quite chilly and showery day, particularly in the north on Wednesday

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7598400.thumb.png.097d651c97fa259a0a205016a5b500b8.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.57ea8467d8eb0f19241ca06eb9ee05e3.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.7cf08f58dbbe442a52fda47bba76b022.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7620000.thumb.png.d40da0f8f9ed6e6b148f501f43f7eef9.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-7620000.thumb.png.e9f7f1fb0eab0e55f5032cd7e050f616.png

But the amplification of the Atlantic high zone is quite quickly suppressed by the-eastbound energy and a warm front brings more rain, accompanied by strengthening winds, to north and western regions (mainly) on Thursday

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7684800.thumb.png.38f2ae38cdb60475d5697b6624c7399d.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.e3cefdbcef59a409e6e1d816196c25ed.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7706400.thumb.png.3d75c805d257e4ddb38d64b1ebda738d.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-7706400.thumb.png.e246d9ad0da3fe78ef7e69acf2fbf3db.png

But another resurgence of the Atlantic high results in the quite shallow Iceland low tracking south east into the North Sea on Friday with the associated fronts running down the country bringing showery rain and gusty winds to most areas Note Dorian is tracking up the east coast

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7771200.thumb.png.325e81527617a3d564a12bf7171752fe.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.d529046e74f6fa659fd5fe7b5639a47f.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7792800.thumb.png.ac0cab7872cd9bc87eaf7a082aed2ff7.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-7792800.thumb.png.7a8f3078337756fb088e2c684403fcf9.png

Edited by knocker

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The next five days are tricky because of the travels of Dorian which will likely impact the jet and WV transport

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8052000.thumb.png.12ce09cebe302b56eda8af9977f15d6b.pnggfs-nhemi-z250_speed-8052000.thumb.png.23da427a370112bf8ce6cee9823b2b8b.pngIVT_conv_88.thumb.png.96c2655546e48c2db3c9999cd0c2245c.png

But the weekend should be mainly dry with showers in the west, particularly the NW on Sunday

1465718259_sat12.thumb.png.f9e7d6d66bc672a84ff8fb3661a1ac6a.png520659744_sun12.thumb.png.2915456be7e89b1a5b7ebdfb8bdea72b.png

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Latest sat image of Dorian

15116730_COD-GOES-East-subregional-Florida_13.20190902.053615-overmap-bars.thumb.jpg.baf049ac023cea8838a5b27797683c48.jpg

For a concise explanation of the ET and impacts of Dorian the tweet thread by Tomer Burg I have just posted is worth a look

Edited by knocker

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And further to that the gfs midnight run

irro_wind_81.thumb.png.30b2362f9aa3dc85c0c92a282fd30e43.png

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The ecm for the weekend. Does not appear to show the strong ET of Dorian of the gfs

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-7944000.thumb.png.e9dc6e114b7a81ae321903963bb4bc12.png1122221446_sat12.thumb.png.178b74e5f852337247434b19e0e625f7.png1732039933_sun12.thumb.png.75c4d282b324ebbbafbe4bcd6122ba92.png

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11 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

This should cheer you up a bit Don... Deep low pressure to the NW, and quite a cool and unsettled set up.... Look at those uppers over Greenland now... Gerrin very close to banging the drum hard for winter now.... Cold crisp days, and even colder nights!!! That's the hope anyway... 😉

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Yuk, no thanks, GFS improved for Tuesday, but miles in FI with such uncertain setup, EC a bit better for S areas

gfs-0-210.pngECM1-216.GIF?02-12

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Is today's GEFS 00Z ensembles showing tell-tale signs of early-onset FI? If so, Autumn has quite definitely arrived!😬

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

The SAD season is upon us!:oldsad:

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According to ecm the next 10 day's are relatively benign away from the NW. Plenty of dry conditions which won't please a fair few. The ensemble mean also indicating quite a settled period with temps also not to bad. More of a worry is the picture I've posted of the damage done inside the Greenland Arctic this summer!!! 197 million tonnes of ice lost in July alone!! Quite remarkable... Hopefully a re freeze takes place very soon. 

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-216.gif

graphe_ens3.png

graphe_ens3 (1).png

5d692a556f24eb21f928a946-1136-852.jpg

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As expecting in Autumn, today's GEFS 06Z ensembles are also becoming somewhat 'entropically challenged'...there be some TS remnants in them thar charts?🤓

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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16 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

This should cheer you up a bit Don... Deep low pressure to the NW, and quite a cool and unsettled set up.... Look at those uppers over Greenland now... Gerrin very close to banging the drum hard for winter now.... Cold crisp days, and even colder nights!!! That's the hope anyway... 😉

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

Those NW winds are looking like a pretty persistent feature for the first 10 days of the month. If they carry on we could get a rather chilly September and this Thursday for example looks below average temperature wise.

Would rather see some blocking head towards Greenland though from a winter perspective, to reinforce the Tripole SST pattern.

The other question is about what Dorian does, its that time of the year when an ex-hurricane can cause sudden pattern changes.

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