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Unfortunately for the Bahamas and Florida the soundings and reckon data point to more resistant ridge than the models have been forecasting. Even the 00z models probably were not adjusted enough. 

given this further West movement is likely. Equally problematic is less potential prior to a Florida hit now.

the strongest winds are approx 8-10 miles from the centre. So if the eye wall skirts the coast..all coastal communities will be catastrophic ally effected. 

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19 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I'm using this http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

The graphic shows a reading taken from what appears to be inside the eye, but isn't prolly due to delay in updating image. I'm using the "infrared funktop hourly" layer. Flight path takes a jog due east of previous reading and it comes out at 179.5 mph, without the wee red asterisk which usually is used to denote suspect data.

Thankyou, I havnt seen that before, very useful.

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I really hope this thing gets steered northwards soon. Observed track of eye has been WNW. Katrina had a much more NNW track and was west of Dorian's track before she took a ridiculous turn to the WSW, crossing Florida and entering the gulf. Can anyone remember the set up that steered Katrina?

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10 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Thankyou, I havnt seen that before, very useful.

I'm following Mission 27 (Gulfstream), but apparently Mission 29 (Lockheed) is on its way to join in. Have you found how to get the data points? If not, gimme a shout.

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Recon update.

923mbps

Flight winds of 159kts and 172kts surface flagged

Flight 156kts and surface 155kts unflagged.

So still getting stronger and sub 920mb likely in the next few hrs. 

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5 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Recon update.

923mbps

Flight winds of 159kts and 172kts surface flagged

Flight 156kts and surface 155kts unflagged.

So still getting stronger and sub 920mb likely in the next few hrs. 

Could be worst possible scenario for Freeport...

Also models today edging west again- Very interesting 12z suite to come...

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Pressure already down to 918.3 with wine also unflagged surface of 170kts in the se quad 

 

That's 195mph

 

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6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Holy stained glass window. A 175mph hit on the Bahamas.

What is the population of the bahamas?!!!this is some serious hurricane!!even if this hits florida at cat 4 it will be devastating!!

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

What is the population of the bahamas?!!!this is some serious hurricane!!even if this hits florida at cat 4 it will be devastating!!

About 400,000. Hope to god Britain and everyone else has already got everything on stand by to assist as they are going to need everything as all services are likely to be damaged possibly destroyed.

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ROCKY BAY cameras went down about an hour ago.

Abaco Island is now inside Dorians Western side, wont be much left.

The only plus if the ridge stays stronger is that the hurricane keeps moving quicker across the Bahamas - the downside being a Florida direct hit.

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With gusts over 200MPH & a storm surge +20feet the whole Island will be flattened.

Around 17k people stayed which suggests there will be a lot of fatalities... 😞

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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From nhc special update. 

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 200 mph - Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours.

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Scary situation. Already Cat 5 and currently undergoing RI.

Not sure how I'll sleep tonight. Dorian seems to fascinating to leave for even a few hours.

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Edited by Mapantz

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Looking stunning still and just approaching the first island. 

He is still intensifying according to dvorak. 

AD9515D7-5BB9-4DAC-978D-D9060BA35E7F.png

84E67D51-C9B1-4FFA-A5DE-FF151D8F0B82.png

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Snapchat maps has a video posted 40mins ago from Marsh Harbour. Another one over an hour ago showing some trees down. 

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So hurricane season finally kicks off, and with a biggie! 

The "stay off shore" eye could be dramatic - looking at the GFS, it could track much of the E coast of the US - if it stays just off shore like this, a stretch of hundreds of coastal miles could get hurricane winds, even major hurricane winds. 

My favorite chaser (every time I follow him I fear the next tweet will be to say he's dead, a chilling experience, can anyone relate?!) 

 

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Abaco Bay resort still broadcasting stills..

 

image.thumb.png.5eb7ded16b806a45e912fc0c4fcdb2eb.png

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