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Latest ec high res 

freeport Bahamas population of that part of the island 100000. 

Ec has a direct ne quad hit. Winds widely of 100-110mph sustained. Rising to 120-125mph in other frames. And with peak gusts probably another 20-30mph higher as a minimum. 

Lasting for many hrs. 

Also hurricane winds now for Florida at the first glance., second...third. And so on. 

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i  would  not like  to be  in Bahamas  its looking like  it going  to be hit very hard  if  people  can i would get out

 

Edited by tinybill

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Only working webcam I can find is in Nassau, the others have gone down.

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21 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Does anybody have the UKMO ensemble mean?

I don’t have a link but this chart shows the mean and it’s about 5-10miles offshore Florida ie eye wall probably just hits the coast. 

00BF12DF-13A1-49CE-A74B-971181CF1381.png

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1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

I don’t have a link but this chart shows the mean and it’s about 5-10miles offshore Florida ie eye wall probably just hits the coast. 

00BF12DF-13A1-49CE-A74B-971181CF1381.png

Looks like hit in Orlando but yeah, that’s a move east since 12z.

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Latest icon 06z out to 58 hours on wetterzentrale and looks to hit east florida pretty darn hard!!looks very similar to ukmo!

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With the uncertainty and a Florida hit is as high as 50% imo. It's beyond silly that a successful eye pass hasn't been done now for 8 hrs.....

this is coming down on the Bahamas and is really close to the us , but they can't do 6hrly plots let alone 3 hr fixes....

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He looks the best he has ever been on ch 13...

Dvorak is also the highest it  has been for dorian. 

So a stronger storm should be found in the next 20 mins

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First pass in in.

Pressure 925\926mb.   Massive fall.

Flight winds of 150kts.

4 surface winds in row over 140kts maxing at 158kts a full 20kts above a cat 5.

Maybe Just maybe a cat 5 upgrade now in about 10mins

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2 hours ago, Lauren said:

Only working webcam I can find is in Nassau, the others have gone down.

This one is in Hope Town in the Abaco Islands. Most of the time it says that the page is down but if you keep on refreshing it should play the webcam.

https://www.abacoinn.com/

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Sorry bit late to the thread - have been following Reddit’s thread. 

This does not look good. Those poor people in the Bahamas. Few days ago, I was ready to book 4 days in Bahamas for October (I’m in Florida for a few weeks anyway so thought we’d take a trip over). Glad I didn’t - I don’t think they’ll be in a good position for many months to come. 

I have this feeling it’s going to continue West and possibly make landfall in Florida. That’s just my hunch. I know it’s still up in the air but I’ve a bad feeling and going by what I’ve read on Reddit - many local news stations had been telling people that it will turn north and miss them. I fear it will continue west and possibly hug the east coast .. and many people won’t have been properly prepared based on the earlier north turns. 

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Yhe sea at Rocky Bay is looking frightening now

hdcam.jpg

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1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Reading has come in from NE quadrant near eye wall, windspeed 179 mph.

That's tornado strength 

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Couple of American short range models show it coming well inland now. When the difference of a few miles could have major affects on warning do you think the MET office share with NOAA what MOGREPS and UKV are showing? As never see them mentioned in their updates. Would think when impact could be so big that everyone would share the most accurate info or at least Trump would pay the met office for it

 

Edited by pages

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7 minutes ago, matty40s said:

That's tornado strength 

I'm using this http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

The graphic shows a reading taken from what appears to be inside the eye, but isn't prolly due to delay in updating image. I'm using the "infrared funktop hourly" layer. Flight path takes a jog due east of previous reading and it comes out at 179.5 mph, without the wee red asterisk which usually is used to denote suspect data.

Edited by Fiona Robertson

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