Hurricane Dorian

[Iceberg]

Another pass another reading of 137kts pressure seems to be rising maybe an erc

But a cat 5???

[Hurricane Debby]

So glad I got to learn about Josh Morgerman this year. I'm going to enjoy following him !!

[Iceberg]

They don't quite buy the cat 5 yet..

upgraded to 130kts  now so just 7kts why of a cat 5

Forecast to rise to 135kts 

[toggerob]

I was curious to see how large Dorian was with regards to the strongest winds around the circulation compared to the size of the UK, so I did a quick overlay and I wasn't expecting it to be THIS small 

[bazookabob]

Note the new forecast track (which they say is on the west side of model consensus) keeps it out at sea now so probably only the Bahamas seeing landfall now. But it's looking bad for them!

[bazookabob]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

I was curious to see how large Dorian was with regards to the strongest winds around the circulation compared to the size of the UK, so I did a quick overlay and I wasn't expecting it to be THIS small 

Is that the hurricane force wind area? It does say they only extend 30 miles from the centre. But it's still like a (upto) 60 mile wide tornado! ? 

[Badgers01]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Debby said:

So glad I got to learn about Josh Morgerman this year. I'm going to enjoy following him !!

he's a really great guy , I met him several times in LA and Palm Springs as we have a mutual friend !!

 

 

[Iceberg]

Just reported from the n e eye wall

134

140

140

135

130

All surface, all in a row.

It would be difficult to not perform a special upgrade based in this. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

I was curious to see how large Dorian was with regards to the strongest winds around the circulation compared to the size of the UK, so I did a quick overlay and I wasn't expecting it to be THIS small 

You need to be careful with the map projection used. Looks like windy uses something like Mercator, which exaggerates the area sizes towards the poles. As such, if you copy a feature from near the equator and paste it near the us, it will appear much smaller than it is in reality.
At the moment, a quick estimate of Dorian suggests about 450km from east to wet and about 320km from north to south. This gives in an area of approximately 113,000km2, or around 87% that of England.

Below is the satellite image of Dorian used on google maps (which uses a globe so the areas are accurate) displayed over the UK. Gives a rough estimate of the size. I'm not sure how recent the satellite image is though, so it might be bigger now.

 

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, bazookabob said:

Is that the hurricane force wind area? It does say they only extend 30 miles from the centre. But it's still like a (upto) 60 mile wide tornado! ? 

The storm has been overlain from a flat map so it's actually bigger then that. This is because the distance of lines of latitude at the equator are wider then at high latitudes, which the map doesn't show.

EDIT: BFTV beat me to it.

Edited August 31, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Hurricane Debby]

1 hour ago, Badgers01 said:

he's a really great guy , I met him several times in LA and Palm Springs as we have a mutual friend !!

 

 

I'm so envious ! I have such respect for him and I'd love to meet him. Hurricane Man was such a good programme and I hope they do a second...

[snowrye]

Hurricane Dorian just 7mph short of cat 5, sustained winds now of 150mph

[karyo]

Another adjustment east from the ECM so no landfall. Even Newfoundland looks like escaping.

[karyo]

It has to be said though that the ECM is very interesting in the last couple of frames with another two hurricanes roaming in the Atlantic. So lots to keep us interested in the coming weeks.

[Had Worse]

I wonder if Bermuda is now watching nervously

[Badgers01]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Debby said:

I'm so envious ! I have such respect for him and I'd love to meet him. Hurricane Man was such a good programme and I hope they do a second...

He’s handsome charming and gay and a welcome addition to the team !! 

[matty40s]

4 hours ago, bazookabob said:

Is that the hurricane force wind area? It does say they only extend 30 miles from the centre. But it's still like a (upto) 60 mile wide tornado! ? 

I came through Stoke,A50 and then East Midlands and didjt see anything concerning, perhaps the circulation is only over Nuneaton/Bedduf and Polesworth.  

[Hurricane Debby]

6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

He’s handsome charming and gay and a welcome addition to the team !! 

He's just got his potential base at some solid concrete homes in the Bahamas.. Does he stream live at all ?

[summer blizzard]

UKMO ensemble mean is actually still a hit and verifying best out to 72 hours. That however relies on SW movement once it slows to a crawl.

[pages]

18z GFS shifted a bit West and icon 18z is a lot further west than what NOAA are showing  landfill mid Florida as cat4 and staling right on the coast, could be a lot of flooding as it weakens very slowly I would back icon and ukmet at this range than the American models

[shaky]

Looks like the gfs takes the path slightly further south and west again compared to its earlier runs today!!dont think Florida is out of danger just yet!!

[summer blizzard]

21 minutes ago, pages said:

18z GFS shifted a bit West and icon 18z is a lot further west than what NOAA are showing  landfill mid Florida as cat4 and staling right on the coast, could be a lot of flooding as it weakens very slowly I would back icon and ukmet at this range than the American models

Icon is model fodder. It’s the Euro and UKMO ensemble means that you want to see in agreement. 

[Iceberg]

There has he n a notable shift West on most 18z runs. The 00z certainly be interesting. Florida is not yet clear.

more 140+kt winds measured.

every single run now has measured cat 5 smfr winds. They are not backed up with dvorak or flight but there is only so long and So many recordings you can put down to inaccuracy...

Now at 147kts so recording a full 10kts above cat 5.

[Mr Frost]

Keep an eye on these two accounts - both at ground zero.

Must be on the verge of becoming a Category 5 - absolute beast of a hurricane. (Lightning rate also looks insane)

Really scary stuff for the people who live there - hopefully everyone is hunkered down and stays safe.

It is going to be a total nightmare...especially with the projected duration/stalling over these Islands.

And as others have said above...Florida is back in the mix for landfall.

Edited September 1, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Iceberg]

Sniper taken from nhc discussion this morning 

Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.

Explains their reasoning. However I have to say I've only ever seen one or two recordings ignored. We've had close to 40 now..all flights from yesterday afternoon have recorded them. We've also had multiple dropsondes, small devices dropped from the aircraft that  measure winds temp dew point at various levels as it goes down, give various data points to back up the sfmr. 

This is taken from the nhc discussion that raised dorian to a cat 4 .

"A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial wind speed has been raised to 120 kt."

 so a single one of each can raise Dorian to 120kts but multiple ones can't raise to 140kts? Whether it's 130kts or 140it's matters not much apart from a cat 5 would receive more media attention.

 

Anyway path is getting worrying again for Florida. Both ec and gfs have moved considerably towards Florida. Now only a whisker away. Also increased are the nc sc chances...not unexpected but following Florida media they were under the impression they had missed it. 

Edited September 1, 2019 by Iceberg