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Just now, Jo Farrow said:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/302049.shtml?   

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale 

Thanks Jo 🙂 will check it out now, surprised how fast its grown 🙂 looking a bit like Hugo

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I think things get interesting from here on in? ( I wonder if he'll 'nuke it'........?)

Recent years have shown just how fast these beast can intensify?

Cat 4/5 before landfall?

East coast Florida already has awful 'king tide' inundations so any kind of surge will be crippling?

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5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think things get interesting from here on in? ( I wonder if he'll 'nuke it'........?)

Recent years have shown just how fast these beast can intensify?

Cat 4/5 before landfall?

East coast Florida already has awful 'king tide' inundations so any kind of surge will be crippling?

Only recent years? Give it a rest!

Its hardly a new phenomenon!

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951 MB!!!!

Very close on CAT 4 now...

41BBBF75-0D3A-4081-A668-9BF2339509D2.thumb.jpeg.a1a8b665ec87302f7ae6f9f5677ed640.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr

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Latest recon shows central pressure to be 946.1 and there was findings of 112kn, one off Cat 4.

Very close now and hours ahead of schedule...

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Max sustained winds of 130mph now, dorian is now cat 4, and with warm waters in abundance, I can see dorian gaining cat 5 status, unbelievable how quick this system has gained strength, was only a few days ago, that it was looking iffy.

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140mph sustained winds now 👀 

It has also got that classic donut shape to it, normally exhibited by the most powerful hurricanes/typhoons. Cat 5 is only inevitable now I think. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Both impressive and scary how quickly he's grown. The models seem to be trending more and more to him not striking land though and curving away from land instead which is very lucky for those in the original predicted path if that is indeed what happens.

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Looks horrendous for the Northwest Bahamas - direct hit.

Edited by Mr Frost

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6 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Only recent years? Give it a rest!

Its hardly a new phenomenon!

To be fair I think he meant that the improved analysis over more recent years shows how quickly they can escalate from TS to Cat 4/5, rather than suggesting rapid intensification is a modern phenomenon. 

Just looking at this thread shows that there have been (even) more intense storms in the past prior to climate change being accepted as "a Thing" and even if it was starting back then, the warming effect overall from that should have been much less than at this stage. 

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Some very encouraging for FL. Several models are showing a pronounced weakness, which may allow Dorian to miss FL to the east.

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Some very encouraging for FL. Several models are showing a pronounced weakness, which may allow Dorian to miss FL to the east.

Yes only the Icon shows a direct hit for Florida now. The ECM is very similar to last night and even the UKMO has shifted east and spares Florida. 

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Yes, models have amplified the tidge over the western US vs previous days which allows a secondary low to cut further south in the central US and erode the upper high currently steering Dorian.

Anyhow, the 12z Euro last night seems to have kicked the UKMO and GFS into agreement on a curve north pre-Florida although the 0z UKMO did hit at 925mb.

Both the 6z UKMO and 0z Euro however do hit South Carllina. GFS is a FISH.

Worth saying that models have dropped the south of west movement too. If we do see that, a landfall somewhere is more likely.

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The trend is certainly more towards s  carolina and poss Georgia as he arcs away from Florida but you would need to see a couple more runs to be certain that this becomes favoured 

Edited by bluearmy

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

Some very encouraging for FL. Several models are showing a pronounced weakness, which may allow Dorian to miss FL to the east.

Unfortunately, a small crumb of comfort for Florida might be insignificant to the massive increase in water related damage over a much larger East Coast area......with many more days life in Dorian should he stay just offshore and move slowly up the coast.

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Even the updated icon has now shifted the track rest of Florida. This seems to give the breathing space in the Gulf of Mexico for another tropical low to develop as it tracks slowly westwards . 

The NHC gives this a small chance to develop at the moment but it needs to be watched as it tracks westwards towards northeast Mexico and possibly Texas. 

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38 minutes ago, karyo said:

Even the updated icon has now shifted the track rest of Florida. This seems to give the breathing space in the Gulf of Mexico for another tropical low to develop as it tracks slowly westwards . 

The NHC gives this a small chance to develop at the moment but it needs to be watched as it tracks westwards towards northeast Mexico and possibly Texas. 

Whilst I’m relieved that it’s likely Florida will be spared the brunt, even a day is a very long time for watching a hurricane. Think it’s going to be a nowcasting scenario, especially when it is forecasted to nearly stall over the Bahamas. Wouldn’t take much for the path to suddenly change dramatically. 

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A lucky escape perhaps for Florida, rain aside, but the Bahamas will take more of an impact. The corrections east will continue as the high pressure reduces it's steer. NHC definitely showing him offshore now.

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well no recon for 8 hrs but thankfully the first one just completed.

Lack of funding is appealing and the aircraft keep breaking down....

Anyway. 939.8 just found and surface of 126 kts so a raise looks on the cards in 45 mins..

A chunk of dry air overnight had some impact and it's generally pretty dry ahead of him.

Models firming up on a run offshore Florida and then hitting nc or sc.....however the motion atm it pretty much due West and a little South than forecast.

The stall won't be modelled very well imo, but the Bahamas look to be getting a high cat 4 hit.

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Officially raised to 125it's

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER AND MOVING WESTWARD...

More data in a min

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142 flight winds, flagged 136kt surface and unflagged 127kts 

I can't see too much more strengthening tbh however a cat 5 is only 137kts. 

A strong storm

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Dilemma time.

Surface winds of 141kt and 145kt have been recorded whilst I was making a very nice Dorset Apple cake...

however dvorak and flight winds don't support this...

So decision time do NHC update to a 140kt Category 5 hurricane in 30 mins time of keep it just why at say 130\135kts and a cat 4.....

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