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The UKMO has shifted the track of Dorian further east, so now it doesn't make it to the west coast of Florida anymore.

The GFS has shifted further north as the hurricane looks deeper.

I think it is still possible for Dorian to shift northwards before properly making landfall to Florida. This is because there is no solid high pressure to the north and the hurricane is deepening at the same time. A hurricane did the same thing 2-3 years ago, I can't remember the name now. 

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17 minutes ago, karyo said:

The UKMO has shifted the track of Dorian further east, so now it doesn't make it to the west coast of Florida anymore.

The GFS has shifted further north as the hurricane looks deeper.

I think it is still possible for Dorian to shift northwards before properly making landfall to Florida. This is because there is no solid high pressure to the north and the hurricane is deepening at the same time. A hurricane did the same thing 2-3 years ago, I can't remember the name now. 

Can't wait for the UKMO spagetti plot. Makes landfall in Palm Beach at 938mb (that normally correlates to something close to cat 5) but after about 24 hours ravaging Florida it goes back over water and starts to intensify.

1200UTC 30.08.2019 0 24.2N 69.3W 990 54

0000UTC 31.08.2019 12 25.2N 71.1W 987 53

1200UTC 31.08.2019 24 25.6N 72.9W 985 60

0000UTC 01.09.2019 36 25.7N 74.5W 977 69

1200UTC 01.09.2019 48 26.1N 75.7W 968 68

0000UTC 02.09.2019 60 26.3N 76.9W 963 69

1200UTC 02.09.2019 72 26.4N 77.7W 951 79

0000UTC 03.09.2019 84 26.4N 78.5W 946 80

1200UTC 03.09.2019 96 26.6N 79.2W 942 81

0000UTC 04.09.2019 108 27.8N 80.4W 938 85

1200UTC 04.09.2019 120 29.2N 81.6W 953 73

0000UTC 05.09.2019 132 30.8N 81.4W 957 75

1200UTC 05.09.2019 144 32.4N 79.9W 941 88

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When plotted it looks similar to the ec , it leaves Miami more alone. But an extreme hurricane up the East coast is looking likely. Nice hot circle around the eye. 

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6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

When plotted it looks similar to the ec , it leaves Miami more alone. But an extreme hurricane up the East coast is looking likely. Nice hot circle around the eye. 

Yeah, it's the first proper UKMO to stop it heading into the Gulf. It has however stuck with Palm Beach on just about every run the past 48 hours. 

A massive win if Dorian ends up there.

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How typical that I'm going to Florida during the week the strongest storm in decades hit. Originally was going to land on Wednesday night from Vegas but looks like I might be staying a bit longer and delaying my arrival into Miami until later in the week, in case of flooding and power outages etc.

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Some interesting rainfall amounts being suggested already

United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches.

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A few images. 

A much more symmetrical looking Dorian. Dual channels formed. 

Ohc. Ocean heat content. The amount of fuel available for Dorian. It looks like the fuel is only going to get more more potent particularly in the approach to Florida. 

Also important for a stalling system, which is what Dorian is expected to do as it gets closer to Florida. Is the depth of the fuel. This looks increasing bad as well 

there is just not much to prevent Dorian from going from bad to worse. As much I try and look. 

8BCAE56A-16F2-40E1-86CA-3E634BAC4F33.gif

7A6F6595-4C42-4011-89B9-C52A8D3A24E9.gif

F8D6628E-2CBA-49E6-A1AB-BBA20C443893.png

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So what's likely to cause a sudden change in direction as suggested in the following forecast image. It seems severe by the look of that, understanding the nature of "right turn Clyde" nature of hurricanes..

image.png

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Not surprised to see the ECM shifting the track further east. At this stage it can easily spare Florida and just move north as a fish. 

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Worst cases are, it crosses into the GOM or follows the track above but further east, keeping the eye out at sea whilst the Western half buzz saws up the coast.

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1 minute ago, Had Worse said:

Worst cases are, it crosses into the GOM or follows the track above but further east, keeping the eye out at sea whilst the Western half buzz saws up the coast.

I think the GOM scenario has come and gone.

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My issue with the ec is that it stalls him a bit too much. Imo. Hence the weakness etc etc 

I still think it will be just offshore Florida and into the Carolinas. However a glancing blow to land is still very possible. 

 

In appearance he is starting to get the saw like shape of a  mid cat 4. 

Dvorak supports a cat 4 (just) and the eye is looking incredible in any view. 

Nhc update at 10pm have upped him to a cat 3. Due to no recon for ages. A bit conservative imo. 

45102675-F706-4BD0-9C14-106D695580AF.png

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8 hours ago, Iceberg said:

AD358FBF-517D-48BC-830D-82ADAC33933D.png

Is that what they call a 'hot tower'?

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Recon not to far away now a few turn around's also.. ^ Has it been confirmed CAT 3 yet ^ ?

 

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Dorian at the moment looks like stalling to 5mph as it touches florida coast meaning up to locally 30 inches of rain in certain areas whilst moving northeast along the east coast. MAJOR NEWS I PREDICT.

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4 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Recon not to far away now a few turn around's also.. ^ Has it been confirmed CAT 3 yet ^ ?

 

Reed timmer posted earlier that dorian had been upgraded to cat 3 status

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Thinking of the Bahamas first.  #HurricaneDorian2019 SPECIAL WARNINGS: A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, NORTH ELEUTHERA, NEW PROVIDENCE, BERRY ISLANDS, AND BIMINI #Bahamas Radar http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/

Local radar to watch 

3008bahamas.png

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The 18z gfs has also edged towards the ECM. The high pressure to the north of the hurricane vanishes after the weekend and opens the door for Dorian to move north/northeast

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1 minute ago, snowrye said:

Reed timmer posted earlier that dorian had been upgraded to cat 3 status

Thank you! I wasn't sure last time I checked this morning it was still CAT 1 not checked the NHC website and stuffs.. 🙂

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2 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Reed timmer posted earlier that dorian had been upgraded to cat 3 status

The NHC confirmed it is a Cat 3 "Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale."  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/302049.shtml? They have the info. 

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Just now, Zephyr said:

Thank you! I wasn't sure last time I checked this morning it was still CAT 1 not checked the NHC website and stuffs.. 🙂

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/302049.shtml?   

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale 

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