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Upper to 90kt in the latest advisory. 

Also upped is the landfall to a cat 4 120kts a touch further South at port st Lucie 

 

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The core looks really angry on the latest slider a few mins ago. 

Its being pushed around under the exerted pressures. Lots of towers and lightning. Could be ri. 

If that centre stabilises and clears out then a cat 4. 

I’ve also put in what he looked like late  yesterday morning. 

007CA94D-4498-4360-AA7A-565CC7B29354.jpeg

93A85350-2556-497C-92AB-15D8B9CAB2C4.png

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4 hours ago, LeighD said:

Hopefully not to quickly. I’m in Florida with my family on holiday, flying back at 5.30 EST on Sunday 

Sorry I thought I had replied to this. 

Miami no chance. Imo

Orlando unlikely

Tampa maybe

But contact the airline asap imo...really  sorry.

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6 hours ago, LeighD said:

Hopefully not to quickly. I’m in Florida with my family on holiday, flying back at 5.30 EST on Sunday 

Looking at the latest probabilities forecast from NHC, and assuming you are travelling from Orlando, then between 8pm Saturday to 8pm Sunday your time it gives a 12% chance of 34kt wind. 

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31 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Looking at the latest probabilities forecast from NHC, and assuming you are travelling from Orlando, then between 8pm Saturday to 8pm Sunday your time it gives a 12% chance of 34kt wind. 

A huge amount of uncertainty still def with latest ecm. Stalling the system between Florida and the Bahamas for 24hrs longer than the nhc so doesn't get to Florida until monday.

this map from nhc shows nicely when the winds shou pick up..it will update every 6 hrs. With Orlando being further North the uncertainty increases due to the increased stall chance. However even though ts winds won't get there until later the turbulence in the pre outflow eff will likely cause them to close Atlantic routes maybe 12 hrs or so before hand. 

 

 

0C78F4D3-3C1A-4D7B-901C-3CAAB1A1135F.png

Edited by Iceberg

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Now just creeping into Atlantic sat looking as we are creeping up towards CAT 3 territory soon

18A78008-A297-4D88-949A-815FEB5C3EDD.thumb.jpeg.d86c39f8a5e9046e7db2155dbaafd0e1.jpeg

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Could do with it ending up very far North, to get some heat near the poles, doesn't look like an active hurricane season to me., lets hope it changes.

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The 6z GFS places Dorian slightly further west than the earlier output. Similar to ICON. Dorian actually manages to cross Florida in this run and reach the western coast of the peninsula. A further slight adjustment west may mean that the storm gets the chance to restrengthen due to the warmer waters of the Gulf. 

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z GFS places Dorian slightly further west than the earlier output. Similar to ICON. Dorian actually manages to cross Florida in this run and reach the western coast of the peninsula. A further slight adjustment west may mean that the storm gets the chance to restrengthen due to the warmer waters of the Gulf. 

Which is the scenario nobody wants at all, including us, as we would potentially be headed into Louisiana later in the week!!

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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could do with it ending up very far North, to get some heat near the poles, doesn't look like an active hurricane season to me., lets hope it changes.

I'm sorry but that sounds a really dick thing to say imo , I can understand how hurricanes can be exciting and such, but to say you want it to be more active where people's lives can be at state isn't something you should wish more of.

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1 minute ago, Atmogenic said:

I'm sorry but that sounds a really dick thing to say imo , I can understand how hurricanes can be exciting and such, but to say you want it to be more active where people's lives can be at state isn't something you should wish more of.

There is something of a correlation between an active hurricane season and Northern blocking in winter, although i have a feeling there is more to it than just the strength and numbers of hurricanes, its the track they take as well.

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is something of a correlation between an active hurricane season and Northern blocking in winter, although i have a feeling there is more to it than just the strength and numbers of hurricanes, its the track they take as well.

The link is to seasonal ACE values so really strength and duration are more important than raw numbers. That makes sense when you consider that they are producing abnormal westerly wind bursts in the tropics when travelling at low latitude, that produces downstream mid to high latitude ridging somewhere all of which transfer heat and Ozone north. Equally strong recurves do the same thing more directly.

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On the 0z models the GFS is a massive capitulation to the UKMO so we’ll done. Euro still trying something a bit different.

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Recon have just done their first pass of the day. 

Pressure now sub 970mb surface of 95it's and flight winds of 98kts.

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An insane tower in the sw quad. 

Could account for the 200mph contaminated surface reading. 

 

Second noaa plane currently just going in. Already flight winds of 99kts at 986mb. 

 

Interesting that ts winds ext to 105miles. This is already further than the forecast for the weekend so she isn’t as small they thought. Imo she will be quite a bit bigger. 

AD358FBF-517D-48BC-830D-82ADAC33933D.png

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I seem to think all canes are shes.  My default error. 🙂

On the last pass several sub 970mb records found. 968mb at the lowest. 

 

 

Edited by Iceberg

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1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Recon have just done their first pass of the day. 

Pressure now sub 970mb surface of 95it's and flight winds of 98kts.

 

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Second noaa plane currently just going in. Already flight winds of 99kts at 986mb. 

AD358FBF-517D-48BC-830D-82ADAC33933D.png

As a qualified pilot, that's some roller coaster. Imagine having to do it multiple times per day - presumably they get used to it.  

Wouldn't want to sit in the back of that aircraft!

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Latest image

 

CE7D189D-855E-460F-8C1B-BBF1F880C307.gif

94A7B94E-27F7-4DEC-BA30-6A7E4EA3BB5C.png

60A53366-39ED-4D61-A05C-D75D0CC5FCD3.png

Edited by Bobafet
Added further images

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Latest vis slider from a few mins ago. 

Eye now clear. 

Some be about to start the bout of intensification to reach a cat 4

C6CA6300-996C-4504-AD2C-EA3BD2C9B272.png

2CE0BAFA-B731-4260-9219-C0DBE41D44E4.png

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