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Now Officially of Hurricane Status if someone can change the thread title

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Interestingly the UKMO (secondly only the Euro and mesoscale models in most seasons) stays much further south than the NHC and GFS, actually moves WSW before landfall at 954mb next Tuesday.

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If its CAT 1 now with pretty optimal conditions CAT 2-3 could be an understatement...

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I quite like the GFS.....we are landing in Denver and tracking South less than a week from now...unfortunately the southern rivers and Florida are already affected by flooding or unseasonably high rivers, so it could be an interesting road trip!!

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I wonder if this could track like Katrina... 

Katrina was cat 2 into Florida and more or less stalled before it turned north.

Rita would be a better analogue for this but it’s likely to be much too developed and not have the time over water.

...

Euro backs the UKMO, 964mb into Palm Beach.

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HWRF going for a 120kt landfall hoping this doesn't happen

HWRF.thumb.png.5a57196b5de5f16d5234b431d7fbeded.png

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Sustained winds exceeding 80mph reported in St Thomas. Dorian is going, going, gone.

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1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Now Officially of Hurricane Status if someone can change the thread title

It's done.

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The 12z ECM has landfall on Sunday evening around West Palm beach, gusting up to 140mph!  Plenty of time for change but this has potential to be a damaging storm.  As Steve said earlier, the next few days look ripe for strengthening!?

image.thumb.png.0f1175dc4f2813feda0c5acd51ad002d.png

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Some other images from the hurricane app I use “My Hurricane tracker pro” super app!

 

C0DEE454-F430-41C0-944F-6DE4FF81819D.png

E81D2071-0E05-4E31-B08A-00A818EBD80C.png

E7E47819-658E-4F49-8A09-46E295DAD04D.png

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Dorian is through the Virgin Islands now and looks to have closed its eye.

Now 80mph, 997mb.

State Of Emergency now declared in Florida.

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1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

The 12z ECM has landfall on Sunday evening around West Palm beach, gusting up to 140mph!  Plenty of time for change but this has potential to be a damaging storm.  As Steve said earlier, the next few days look ripe for strengthening!?

image.thumb.png.0f1175dc4f2813feda0c5acd51ad002d.png

Crikey  wouldn't that be a low end cat 4?   A few days  ago  i didnt think this storm would make it to hurricane status   shows how good the conditions are for strengthening 

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Hard to believe that something so beautiful, can be so damaging, I honestly think this will rapidly intensify

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56 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Crikey  wouldn't that be a low end cat 4?   A few days  ago  i didnt think this storm would make it to hurricane status   shows how good the conditions are for strengthening 

Those are gusts, not sustained. 964mb would normally suggest something around the category 3 border.

56 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Hard to believe that something so beautiful, can be so damaging, I honestly think this will rapidly intensify

Dropping about 1mb an hour at the moment, recon have found 993mb.

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HWRF has it making landfall as nearly as Cat 5.  This model can overdo it at times but it is an option on the table which a few days ago really didn't seem likely.

http://imgur.com/BqkD5lG

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5 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Like so?

 

 image.thumb.png.f584414f9b51cab60e2e80c1c08e26da.png

Yeah something like that- although probably not quite as far south-

Current pressure 988MB

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00z ECM takes it slightly more south than yesterday

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_6.png

 

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Latest sat IR shows nearly all the dry air in the SSW quadrant being blocked out 

ABF16C8C-8EBB-4B1F-BCAC-D6D1AB91E0CD.thumb.png.e8e066636259e406c5de22026cba5764.png

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I see most models today have shifted away from the entry to the Gulf of Mexico scenario.  This is because the high pressure to the north is not so strong. Also, they show her slowing down and the UKMO still places her east of Florida at 144 hours while yesterday she was over southern Florida at this range.

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