Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Link to the NOAA station at settlement point far western tip of Grand Bahama https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

Current sustained winds of 37kts having fallen from an earlier 45kts.  If the predicted path is correct, this station will be hit by the southern eyewall later today/tonight.  The previous station was knocked out by a direct hit from Matthew in 2016 but recorded sustained winds of over 70kts before going down.  The station is on the end of a sea wall so it is more likely being swamped rather than being blown away that will be the issue.

 

On another note - Still no update from chaser Josh Morgerman @iCyclone since yesterday, hopefully nowt more than issues with down coms but Marsh Harbour was battered yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z GFS looks like scraping the Florida coast. Slightly further west than the icon.

Am i correct in thinking that a coastal runner could be much, much more damaging over a wide area than an actual landfall?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That is one very slow moving hurricane.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, swebby said:

Am i correct in thinking that a coastal runner could be much, much more damaging over a wide area than an actual landfall?

If it follows the coastline right up to the Carolinas, like the bed shows, then possibly yes. The ECM though is not as bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been following this one off the forum, and thought I'd check in to see if it might make me less fearful for the islanders.

It does not.

I am dreading tomorrow's news (It's night time here in NZ).

I am struggling to see any way in which the Bahamas are not significantly less populated after this hurricane. Even if fatalities are low (and god, I hope they are - but it'd be a miracle), the place is going to be utterly devastated. 😞
 

 

Edited by crimsone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm curious does a stalling hurricane weaken due to lack of energy or if conditions are perfect. It will sit over that source all day long?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It did move a tad WSW last night and lost 0.4 degrees of latitude but for the past nine hours or so it has remained at 26.6N.

I would avoid focusing on hourly movements too much though, it’s quite typical for hurricanes to wobble (they basically move like a spinning top) and focus on the 3 hourly updates in latitude.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I'm curious does a stalling hurricane weaken due to lack of energy or if conditions are perfect. It will sit over that source all day long?

It only "stalls" in that the steering currents don't move it...

... but a large hurricane is a giant heat engine sucking its way through the nuclear equivalent of megatons of energy every minute or two. As long as it can still suck on warm water surrounded by moist air, and there's insufficient sheer to weaken it, it'll keep going.

Edited by crimsone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given the topography of the area where its pretty well stalled, this is going to be absolutely devastating for the islands - a more ‘normal’ Caribbean island would likely cause the storm to lose some intensity as it interacts with it but grand Bahama is so flat that this won’t occur - 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eyewall replacement cycle has started to take place we will see some weakening of the storm but the wind field will be increased. 

The eye witness accounts from josh and Jim are unfortunately going to be grim. The destruction may even be worse than yondla as this storm has been so slow moving. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, cowdog said:

About 400,000. Hope to god Britain and everyone else has already got everything on stand by to assist as they are going to need everything as all services are likely to be damaged possibly destroyed.

I know it's a very large cat 5  is there a cat 6  on the scale?.

No as far as I know

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been watching some of the film crews stuff coming out from the island  it's looking not to nice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, tinybill said:

I know it's a very large cat 5  is there a cat 6  on the scale?.

No as far as I know

No Cat 6, but it's something which may have to be considered as the oceans continue to warm up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No Cat 6, but it's something which may have to be considered as the oceans continue to warm up.

I think the reason why there is no category 6 is that little more damage can be done to buildings after a category 5. It will sadly destroy many things in its path given its power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think the reason why there is no category 6 is that little more damage can be done to buildings after a category 5. It will sadly destroy many things in its path given its power.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think the reason why there is no category 6 is that little more damage can be done to buildings after a category 5. It will sadly destroy many things in its path given its power.

 

 

As explained by Dr Simpson

https://vos.noaa.gov/MWL/apr1999.pdf

 

However I note that the primary driver behind its conception was communication. As more Cat5 Hurricanes seem likely in the (not too distant) future i can foresee a situation whereby more and more people become desensitized to the alarm a designated Cat5 can cause .

we have seen it over the last 20 years where hurricanes have become minor or major and TV news crews ( and to a degree chasers) give the sense that these things are not as dangerous as they are. So i could see a time when a six becomes a fact, if only, to draw attention to the seriousness of the risk involved even if that risk is no different ,mechanically, from a Cat5

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think the reason why there is no category 6 is that little more damage can be done to buildings after a category 5. It will sadly destroy many things in its path given its power.

Yeah that's pretty much it, interview with Dr Robert Simpson who helped make the Saffir / Simpson scale - https://novalynx.com/store/pc/Simpson-Interview-d53.htm

DI: Dr. Simpson, in your opinion, since the Saffir/Simpson scale is an open ended scale, do you think that hurricane windspeeds could become a category 6 or 7?

RS: I think it's immaterial. Because when you get up into winds in excess of 155 miles per hour you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it's going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it's engineered. It may only blow the windows out, but on the other hand, it can actually rupture the stairwells, the elevator wells and twist them, and it's happened in many buildings so that you can't even use the elevators after they've experienced this. So I think that it's immaterial what will happen with winds stronger than 156 miles per hour. That's the reason why we didn't try to go any higher than that anyway.

FE beat me to it, I should have Googled quicker 🙂

 

Edited by Jayces

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From pictures I have seen, concrete structures appear to be standing, but wooden houses and roof slates torn or blown away. Biggest risk is the huge storm surge forcing folk out of shelter and into the storm.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FetchCB said:

 

 

As explained by Dr Simpson

https://vos.noaa.gov/MWL/apr1999.pdf

 

However I note that the primary driver behind its conception was communication. As more Cat5 Hurricanes seem likely in the (not too distant) future i can foresee a situation whereby more and more people become desensitized to the alarm a designated Cat5 can cause .

we have seen it over the last 20 years where hurricanes have become minor or major and TV news crews ( and to a degree chasers) give the sense that these things are not as dangerous as they are. So i could see a time when a six becomes a fact, if only, to draw attention to the seriousness of the risk involved even if that risk is no different ,mechanically, from a Cat5

 

 

 

Really?

You are saying hurricanes are underhyped in the media?

I would say the opposite.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Really?

You are saying hurricanes are underhyped in the media?

I would say the opposite.

No what Im saying is that the viewing public become desensitized to the danger. The only analogy I can use is when you first pass your driving test you do not go out and drive at the speed limit( usually). Over time your driving becomes a bit faster as you get used to the speed.

In the same manner because we are likely to see more and more Cat5 hurricanes people will be less shocked by them and will get used to them much like they do with Cat1 and 2's these days.

What I am saying is that the ability of the media to report live gives a false sense of security when in fact what they do is extremely dangerous. 

I've often seen interviews over the last couple of years where people in the path of a 1 and 2 say " if it were a Cat3 id leave...."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have heard reports that the ERC is nearly complete.  Inner eye has collapsed and the new eye is contracting.

Dorian will now have a larger wind field, albeit *slightly* less intense but she may restrengthen.  Really, really not good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...