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4 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

I’d say it’s due to the fact that the Bahamas are very low, not much above 30ft ASL so there’s not much around to really disrupt it. 

Thanks

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20 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Probably a silly question but why has he not weakened at all now hes interacted with land

Doesn't the friction over land kill tropical cyclones?

Subject : C2) Doesn't the friction over land kill tropical cyclones?

Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC) and Sim Aberson (HRD)

No. During landfall, the increased friction over land acts - somewhat contradictory - to both decrease the sustained winds and also to increase the gusts felt at the surface (Powell and Houston 1996). The sustained (1 min or longer average) winds are reduced because of the dampening effect of larger roughness over land (i.e. bushes, trees and houses over land versus a relatively smooth ocean). The gusts are stronger because turbulence increases and acts to bring faster winds down to the surface in short (a few seconds) bursts.

However, after just a few hours, a tropical cyclone over land will begin to weaken rapidly - not because of friction - but because the storm lacks the moisture and heat sources that the ocean provided. This depletion of moisture and heat hurts the tropical cyclone's ability to produce thunderstorms near the storm center. Without this convection,the storm rapidly fills.

An early numerical simulation (Tuleya and Kurihara 1978) had shown that a hurricane making landfall over a very moist region (i.e. mainly swamp) so that surface evaporation is unchanged, intensification may result. However, a more recent study (Tuleya 1994) that has a more realistic treatment of surface conditions found that even over a swampy area a hurricane would weaken because of limited heat sources. Indeed, nature conducted this experiment during Andrew as the hurricane traversed the very wet Everglades, Big Cypress and Corkscrew Swamp areas of southwest Florida. Andrew weakened dramatically: peak winds decreased about 33% and the sea level pressure in the eye rose 19 mb (Powell and Houston 1996).

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9 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Thanks for that, best footage I've seen. I wonder if they'll ever put cameras outside of the Plane.

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NHC Active Tropical Cyclones

8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.6°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

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12 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Thanks for that, best footage I've seen. I wonder if they'll ever put cameras outside of the Plane.

Its travelling too fast for any mounts.  I see they have one on the top of the flight deck panel.  Impressive equipment that's for sure.

 

Unreal footage.  Best to watch it all.

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No change

NHC

9:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.7°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

 

Chilling here for the music

https://www.pscp.tv/trumpet_news/1zqJVEyQZgwGB 

Edited by Raindrops

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00z GFS corrects a fair way SW towards the central Florida coast...  😮

Pressure back down to 912 from 916 earlier..

Edited by Steve Murr

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

00z GFS corrects a fair way SW towards the central Florida coast...  😮

Pressure back down to 912 from 916 earlier..

I expect the NHC are paying a lot more attention to their more hires models than the gfs .....however, they will be hoping that the ec op due out in half an hour doesn’t replicate that gfs run !!!!! it’s not so much that Dorian smashes into the s e coast but that he runs all the way up ne Florida, Georgia and the carolinas with damaging winds and substantial rainfall. I reckon some nervous folk down at Lloyd’s this morning if that looks like happening .......

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The latest ECM sticks the eye close to Freeport, Bahamas for around a whole day without weakening. There's 25000 in this town normally. I can't begin to imagine how bad things are going to be there. 

Florida E coast also looking much more at risk on models this morning. 

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looking at the radar cant see no turn yet

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14 minutes ago, tinybill said:

looking at the radar cant see no turn yet

Indeed.  Just not turning North yet.  Freeport looking in big big trouble. 

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Forward motion down to 2mph W. Is it stalling already? 

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914 central pressure and gusts to 220MPH. Apocalyptic 

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It’s now just sitting over Grand Bahama Island - absolutely brutal.

Wind Gusts to 200mph.

Surely it should turn WNW soon? 

 

Edited by Mr Frost

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1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

Forward motion down to 2mph W. Is it stalling already? 

It looks like it has stalled early. Terrible news for the Bahamas. 

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Outer band thunderstorms in the vicinity. Some nice CGs on camera

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5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Looks like it might be starting to North according to radar if any one could confirm?

Yep definate North Westward turn finally

 

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The 6z GFS looks like scraping the Florida coast. Slightly further west than the icon.

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