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8 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Records..

 

Dorian is now the joint 5th strongest Atlantic hurricanes by wind

If pressure goes below 909mb he will be in the top 10 by pressure. 

Check out Levi's Twitter. The reason the NHC are having a hard time matching FL and Surface Wind is because the air is sinking so hard in the eye that its almost to the surface.

Almost unprecidented.

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Unbelievable intensification happening right now, the pressure drop is phenomenal, the Bahamas is going to be obliterated, I just hope people are in a safe place

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Word of warning on track, the ICON has caved but the UKMO6z ensemble mean was a hit.

Motion is now due west at 270, it is extremely important that it does not go south of west which seems to be the major reason the UKMO ensembles curve toi late.

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2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

When is the next update from NHC?

2pm EDT. Or 7pm UK time.

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Steve - the population was 17,000. Only about 200 have stayed.

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People jumping in the sea in the Bahamas on Instagram. Ridiculous!

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Just now, summer blizzard said:

Steve - the population was 17,000. Only about 200 have stayed.

No worries mate

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Would be unprecidented sub 900 but at the rate of change it could occur this eve...

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3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Word of warning on track, the ICON has caved but the UKMO6z ensemble mean was a hit.

Motion is now due west at 270, it is extremely important that it does not go south of west which seems to be the major reason the UKMO ensembles curve toi late.

The GFS 12z has also shifted slightly east of the earlier run. 

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2 minutes ago, Lauren said:

People jumping in the sea in the Bahamas on Instagram. Ridiculous!

Don't worry, the less stupid people the better 😄

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1 minute ago, Lauren said:

People jumping in the sea in the Bahamas on Instagram. Ridiculous!

Yep, Folk seem to do anything to get attention on the internet nowadays.

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48 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Forecast my nhc. A small 30 miles from a Florida hit. But will probably adjust west imo. 

AE242858-6EEF-425F-BC40-6B7CA261EC69.png

The tracking predictions like this image seem to think the storm will make a sharp 90 degree turn to the north over a very short distance. I agree with Iceberg - the storm will probably stay west of the tracking prediction models - the only question is by how much?

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Would be unprecidented sub 900 but at the rate of change it could occur this eve...

There are 190KT winds around 900mb.

That would be about the strongest globally on record.

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Having been in 3 hurricanes. This one is a beast I would avoid unless in the strongest concrete or brick structure

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Just now, nwextremeweather said:

The tracking predictions like this image seem to think the storm will make a sharp 90 degree turn to the north over a very short distance. I agree with Iceberg - the storm will probably stay west of the tracking prediction models - the only question is by how much?

The turn north is actually not in question and well modelled. What your map does not show is that Dorian basically stalls and just drifts before the turn. 

The speed and direction of any drift before the turn are more important (does Dorian have enough inertia to carry on).

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A very serious situation at the moment as it's due to landfall in the next few hours in the Bahamas 😔 

However Florida still remains the question as it's next landfall ?

What are the chances of it making landfall it's seems to be really close call?

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just seen video from hurricane centre they said the eye of the storm has grown and so has the width of the whole hurricane. They still believe that the eye will pass just of the coast but he said it will only take a little to change this completely. the pressure is still dropping.

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The Orlando Sentinal reporting "Hurricane Dorian on Sunday became the “strongest hurricane in modern records” for the northwestern Bahamas after it grew today into a Category 5 storm with 180 mph sustained winds and gusts of up to 220 mph."

Aaghhh! I wish I was there!!! I love a nice breezy day

 

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9 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Dratted thing currently moving due west, was that forecast at all?

err, yes.

 

Bahamas Meteoimage.thumb.png.14ced4a4a1169f2f6bb9bcdc60926c77.png 30 minutes ago

 

Edited by matty40s

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8 minutes ago, matty40s said:

err, yes.

 

Bahamas Meteoimage.thumb.png.14ced4a4a1169f2f6bb9bcdc60926c77.png 30 minutes ago

 

Thanks, wasn't sure of it was supposed to stick to WNW before the turn.

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