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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Really is hitting home now - total devastation and horrible eyewitness accounts.

 
Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at ec op, it has gusts up to 187mph as Dorian passes adjacent to palm beach (90 mph at the coast)

wind speeds drop slowly thereafter but the state coasts will still take gusts around 100mph as the storm heads north towards s carolina 

Landfall is charleston thurs pm with gusts around 105 mph 

Some of the stuff I wrote here simply wasn’t true!  No idea which run I was looking at with gusts back up to 185! 

And I should have written ‘palm coast’, not palm beach 

anyway, the latest ec op has the max gusts offshore peaking around 150 mph over the next 24 hours with some coastal areas suffering 100mph gusty winds as Dorian heads nne. The storm just about avoids landfall as it passes the n Carolina coast on its eastern most point 

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL

Are there any models/tracks that show where the remnants are going to go once it get's to our neck of the woods? Or is it still to far out to say?

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
4 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Are there any models/tracks that show where the remnants are going to go once it get's to our neck of the woods? Or is it still to far out to say?

Hi Ryukai, You can follow it's predicted path on the latest GFS run, But at this range expect changes.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
19 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Hi Ryukai, You can follow it's predicted path on the latest GFS run, But at this range expect changes.

I've never been able to find their website no matter the depths of Google I dig down into. Whenever I do a search for them it just comes up with dodgy 'news' websites, random peoples blogposts, youtube vids of people showing them etc.  Also all ones I've always seen all cut the UK off and concentrate on America Only as they stop tracking them as soon as they leave America

 

So I was wondering if theres an English site somewhere that continues to track/model/forecast what's left of them that's available to the public.

Edited by Ryukai
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Are there any models/tracks that show where the remnants are going to go once it get's to our neck of the woods? Or is it still to far out to say?

It won’t be anything more than a standard n Atlantic depression once it gets this side of the pond 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
48 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

I've never been able to find their website no matter the depths of Google I dig down into. Whenever I do a search for them it just comes up with dodgy 'news' websites, random peoples blogposts, youtube vids of people showing them etc.  Also all ones I've always seen all cut the UK off and concentrate on America Only as they stop tracking them as soon as they leave America

 

So I was wondering if theres an English site somewhere that continues to track/model/forecast what's left of them that's available to the public.

Try NetW GFS chart viewer.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It won’t be anything more than a standard n Atlantic depression once it gets this side of the pond 

I know, but I just like tracking/keeping an eye on things, like storms, volcanoes, earthquakes etc  

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
2 hours ago, Ryukai said:

Are there any models/tracks that show where the remnants are going to go once it get's to our neck of the woods? Or is it still to far out to say?

It shows on the ECM https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf  being modified as it heads well north past Iceland on this run, was furhter south on last one

 

0409exdorianECM.png

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Do we have any webcams for the affected areas over the next 24/48 hours?

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
19 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Do we have any webcams for the affected areas over the next 24/48 hours?

South Carolina -  https://www.sciway.net/ccr/webcams.html

North Carolina - https://www.wral.com/north_carolina_webcams/10997074/

 

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
11 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Thankyou!

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Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: The more the merrier.
  • Location: Staffordshire
4 hours ago, Ryukai said:

I've never been able to find their website no matter the depths of Google I dig down into. Whenever I do a search for them it just comes up with dodgy 'news' websites, random peoples blogposts, youtube vids of people showing them etc.  Also all ones I've always seen all cut the UK off and concentrate on America Only as they stop tracking them as soon as they leave America

 

So I was wondering if theres an English site somewhere that continues to track/model/forecast what's left of them that's available to the public.

The problem as I understand it is that although the raw GFS data is released for free (see https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs), it costs money and takes a lot of effort to run a webserver converting this data into something that us common folk can access at home. The datasets are quite huge and unwieldy so for most companies there's really no good business model to produce global charts for us.

 

There are a few options, https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfscharts.asp# is decent but quite low resolution and low quality compared to netweather.

https://www.windy.com/ is a super fun website for this sort of thing, but it's dummed down and without much detail. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
39 minutes ago, Cog said:

The problem as I understand it is that although the raw GFS data is released for free (see https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs), it costs money and takes a lot of effort to run a webserver converting this data into something that us common folk can access at home. The datasets are quite huge and unwieldy so for most companies there's really no good business model to produce global charts for us.

 

There are a few options, https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfscharts.asp# is decent but quite low resolution and low quality compared to netweather.

https://www.windy.com/ is a super fun website for this sort of thing, but it's dummed down and without much detail. 

Great link for windy.com, thank you !

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

In th last few hrs Dorian has started to rapidly intensify again imo.

pressure has started falling and flight winds are just starting to respond again.

Dvorak numbers are increasing from 3.5\4.0 to 6.1

There is still an open eye to the East but convective banding is impressive. 

if and that an IF Dorian closes the eye then a RI WILL occur as it moves closer to NC

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OK so AF304 Hurricane Hunter Aircraft (Recon 43) investigating Dorian is back with readings of 125mph and just under 960mb low pressure. Recon 44 is in the air but just getting going so nothing final as yet

There are some opinions that the dip in the Jet Stream across the mid west has a tendency to pull hurricanes toward it (ie NNW or even WNW) for a while before it is sent NNE and then ENE towards Newfoundland.

If this happens, Dorian will take a more westerley track and more areas inland behind the coast will probably be affected as a result

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Mill Corner East Sussex, 55m asl

Tropical storm Gabrielle will be interesting, such a huge amount of warm water in front, lots of time for fun and games

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Latest nhc just released 

 "Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric."

 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

That's Dorian in the far distance over the East Coast.

20190904_201537.jpg

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